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Inflation Targeting and an Optimal Taylor Rule for an Open Economy: Evidence for Colombia 1990-2011

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  • Edgar Villa
  • Martha A. Misas
  • Andrés F. Giraldo

Abstract

An optimal monetary policy Taylor rule is developed for an open economy, which we then estimate following a Markov regime-switching model for quarterly data from Colombia during 1990-2011. We find two opposite monetary regimes characterized by different policy rules: until October 2000 the Central Bank of Colombia reacted only statistically to output gap changes while after October 2000, when inflation targeting was of ficially adopted, monetary policy reacted only statistically to changes in the inflation rate. The latter regime is consistent with the Taylor principle as shown analytically and verified empirically by a unit root test for a Markov regime-switching model.

Suggested Citation

  • Edgar Villa & Martha A. Misas & Andrés F. Giraldo, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and an Optimal Taylor Rule for an Open Economy: Evidence for Colombia 1990-2011," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 51(1), pages 41-83, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:51:y:2014:i:1:p:41-83
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Martha Misas & Edgar Villa & Andres Giraldo, 2024. "Inflation Targeting with an Optimal Nonlinear Monetary Rule—The Case Study of Colombia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-27, November.
    2. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    3. Esther Barros-Campello & Carlos Pateiro-Rodríguez & J. Venancio Salcines-Cristal & Carlos Pateiro-López, 2017. "El esquema de objetivos de inflación: Evidencia para América Latina (1999-2015)," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 44(2 Year 20), pages 223-250, December.
    4. Sebastián Cadavid Sánchez, 2018. "Monetary policy and structural changes in Colombia, 1990-2016: A Markov Switching approach," Documentos CEDE 16970, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal Taylor rule; inflation targeting; Taylor principle; Markov switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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