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Règle monétaire et cible de prévisions d’inflation

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  • Lecarpentier-Moyal, Sylvie

    (CREREG, Université de Rennes I)

  • Payelle, Nathalie

    (CREREG, Université de Rennes I)

Abstract

Compared to other strategies of monetary policy, implementing a rule for direct targeting inflation presents many advantages in theory, essentially in terms of credibility. But many operational problems related to such rules lead to question about the choice of inflation forecasts. We realized an empirical study based on historical and stochastic simulations, using french data over the period 1978-1997. We find evidence on such a rule with reaction coefficients that are consistent with efficient monetary policy. We show that the performance of this rule is highly sensitive to the way the inflation forecasts are generated. Par rapport aux autres dispositifs de politique monétaire, la mise en place d’une règle de cible directe d’inflation présente en théorie de nombreux avantages, essentiellement en termes de crédibilité. Mais les multiples problèmes opérationnels soulevés conduisent à s’interroger en particulier sur le choix des prévisions d’inflation. Une étude empirique menée sur données françaises, et sur la période 1978-1997 est réalisée à partir de simulations historiques et stochastiques. Elle milite en faveur d’une telle règle avec des coefficients de réaction modérés (compatibles avec une politique monétaire efficace). Elle permet également de montrer le degré de sensibilité de la performance de cette règle au choix du mode d’élaboration des prévisions d’inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lecarpentier-Moyal, Sylvie & Payelle, Nathalie, 2001. "Règle monétaire et cible de prévisions d’inflation," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 531-568, décembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:77:y:2001:i:4:p:531-568
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    References listed on IDEAS

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