IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ortrsc/v49y2015i2p213-222.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Accurate Estimation of Average Waiting Time in Public Transportation Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Reza Amin-Naseri

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran)

  • Vahid Baradaran

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran)

Abstract

Public transportation is one of the most essential services in urban areas. The average passenger waiting time at a stop is an important criterion in evaluating the quality of public transportation systems. Accurate measurement of the average waiting time (AWT) at stops leads to more appropriate and timely schedules. Researchers in the past developed formulations for measuring the AWT at stops based on the assumptions that passengers arrive at stops in a uniform manner and buses arrive at stops independently. Studies on transportation systems in different cities indicate that using these formulations does not result in an accurate measure of the AWT and that there is a significant difference between the observed AWT and the one estimated by these formulations. Researchers related the cause of this discrepancy to the violation of the assumptions of uniform passenger arrival times and independent headways. We show that when the number of buses is not large (even when these assumptions hold true) the existing formulations still lack adequate accuracy. In this paper, we examine the process of formula development that resulted in a formulation that overestimates the AWT; we then propose accurate formulas for estimating the AWT with dependent and independent headways. A discrete simulation model has also been developed to further verify the inaccuracy of the existing formulations and to evaluate the performance of the proposed formulations. Furthermore, as a case study, the AWT at a bus stop in the Tehran bus transportation system has been studied and the accuracy of the proposed formulations has been examined and compared with that of the existing one.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Reza Amin-Naseri & Vahid Baradaran, 2015. "Accurate Estimation of Average Waiting Time in Public Transportation Systems," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(2), pages 213-222, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:49:y:2015:i:2:p:213-222
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2013.0514
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2013.0514
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/trsc.2013.0514?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xuan, Yiguang & Argote, Juan & Daganzo, Carlos F., 2011. "Dynamic bus holding strategies for schedule reliability: Optimal linear control and performance analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1831-1845.
    2. Eberlein, Xu Jun & Wilson, Nigel H. M. & Barnhart, Cynthia & Bernstein, David, 1998. "The real-time deadheading problem in transit operations control," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 77-100, February.
    3. Jiamin Zhao & Maged Dessouky & Satish Bukkapatnam, 2006. "Optimal Slack Time for Schedule-Based Transit Operations," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 529-539, November.
    4. Larsen, Odd I. & Sunde, yvind, 2008. "Waiting time and the role and value of information in scheduled transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 41-52, January.
    5. J. K. Jolliffe & T. P. Hutchinson, 1975. "A Behavioural Explanation of the Association Between Bus and Passenger Arrivals at a Bus Stop," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 248-282, August.
    6. Arnold Barnett & Daniel J. Kleitman, 1973. "Optimal Scheduling Policies for Some Simple Transportation Systems," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 7(1), pages 85-99, February.
    7. Hsu, Spring C., 2010. "Determinants of passenger transfer waiting time at multi-modal connecting stations," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 404-413, May.
    8. G. F. Newell, 1974. "Control of Pairing of Vehicles on a Public Transportation Route, Two Vehicles, One Control Point," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 248-264, August.
    9. Philippe H. J. Marguier & Avishai Ceder, 1984. "Passenger Waiting Strategies for Overlapping Bus Routes," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 207-230, August.
    10. Politis, Ioannis & Papaioannou, Panagiotis & Basbas, Socrates & Dimitriadis, Nikolaos, 2010. "Evaluation of a bus passenger information system from the users' point of view in the city of Thessaloniki, Greece," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 249-255.
    11. E. E. Osuna & G. F. Newell, 1972. "Control Strategies for an Idealized Public Transportation System," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 52-72, February.
    12. Arnold I. Barnett, 1978. "Control Strategies for Transport Systems with Nonlinear Waiting Costs," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(2), pages 119-136, May.
    13. Mark D. Hickman, 2001. "An Analytic Stochastic Model for the Transit Vehicle Holding Problem," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 215-237, August.
    14. Shuxia Guo & Lei Yu & Xumei Chen & Yu Zhang, 2011. "Modelling waiting time for passengers transferring from rail to buses," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(8), pages 795-809, July.
    15. Guido Gentile & Sang Nguyen & Stefano Pallottino, 2005. "Route Choice on Transit Networks with Online Information at Stops," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(3), pages 289-297, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Webb & Pramesh Kumar & Alireza Khani, 2020. "Estimation of passenger waiting time using automatically collected transit data," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 299-311, June.
    2. Erfan Hassannayebi & Seyed Hessameddin Zegordi & Masoud Yaghini & Mohammad Reza Amin-Naseri, 2017. "Timetable optimization models and methods for minimizing passenger waiting time at public transit terminals," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 278-304, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andres, Matthias & Nair, Rahul, 2017. "A predictive-control framework to address bus bunching," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 123-148.
    2. Li, Shukai & Liu, Ronghui & Yang, Lixing & Gao, Ziyou, 2019. "Robust dynamic bus controls considering delay disturbances and passenger demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 88-109.
    3. Zhang, Shuyang & Lo, Hong K., 2018. "Two-way-looking self-equalizing headway control for bus operations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 280-301.
    4. Gkiotsalitis, K. & Cats, O., 2021. "At-stop control measures in public transport: Literature review and research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Mark D. Hickman, 2001. "An Analytic Stochastic Model for the Transit Vehicle Holding Problem," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 215-237, August.
    6. Minyu Shen & Weihua Gu & Michael J. Cassidy & Yongjie Lin & Wei Ni, 2024. "A vicious cycle along busy bus corridors and how to abate it," Papers 2403.08230, arXiv.org.
    7. Bian, Bomin & Zhu, Ning & Meng, Qiang, 2023. "Real-time cruising speed design approach for multiline bus systems," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-24.
    8. Wang, Shuaian & Meng, Qiang, 2012. "Liner ship route schedule design with sea contingency time and port time uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 615-633.
    9. Wu, Weitiao & Liu, Ronghui & Jin, Wenzhou, 2016. "Designing robust schedule coordination scheme for transit networks with safety control margins," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 495-519.
    10. Gkiotsalitis, K. & Alesiani, F., 2019. "Robust timetable optimization for bus lines subject to resource and regulatory constraints," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 30-51.
    11. Xuan, Yiguang & Argote, Juan & Daganzo, Carlos F., 2011. "Dynamic bus holding strategies for schedule reliability: Optimal linear control and performance analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1831-1845.
    12. Klumpenhouwer, W. & Wirasinghe, S.C., 2018. "Optimal time point configuration of a bus route - A Markovian approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 117(PA), pages 209-227.
    13. Berrebi, Simon J. & Watkins, Kari E. & Laval, Jorge A., 2015. "A real-time bus dispatching policy to minimize passenger wait on a high frequency route," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 377-389.
    14. Dai, Zhuang & Liu, Xiaoyue Cathy & Chen, Zhuo & Guo, Renyong & Ma, Xiaolei, 2019. "A predictive headway-based bus-holding strategy with dynamic control point selection: A cooperative game theory approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 29-51.
    15. Petit, Antoine & Ouyang, Yanfeng & Lei, Chao, 2018. "Dynamic bus substitution strategy for bunching intervention," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1-16.
    16. Federico Malucelli & Emanuele Tresoldi, 2019. "Delay and disruption management in local public transportation via real-time vehicle and crew re-scheduling: a case study," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, June.
    17. Vismara, Luca & Chew, Lock Yue & Saw, Vee-Liem, 2021. "Optimal assignment of buses to bus stops in a loop by reinforcement learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 583(C).
    18. Sánchez-Martínez, G.E. & Koutsopoulos, H.N. & Wilson, N.H.M., 2016. "Real-time holding control for high-frequency transit with dynamics," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-19.
    19. Jiamin Zhao & Maged Dessouky & Satish Bukkapatnam, 2006. "Optimal Slack Time for Schedule-Based Transit Operations," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 529-539, November.
    20. Gkiotsalitis, K. & Cats, O. & Liu, T. & Bult, J.M., 2023. "An exact optimization method for coordinating the arrival times of urban rail lines at a common corridor," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:49:y:2015:i:2:p:213-222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.