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A Behavioural Explanation of the Association Between Bus and Passenger Arrivals at a Bus Stop

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  • J. K. Jolliffe

    (University College London, London, England)

  • T. P. Hutchinson

    (University College London, London, England)

Abstract

The times of arrivals of passengers and departures of buses have been observed at ten bus stops in suburban London. The different bus stops were observed at different times of the day, but the observations at each were repeated at the same time on each of eight different days. Due to the predictability of the bus services, passengers' waiting times were observed to be about 30 per cent less than they would have been had the passengers arrived at random times. An explanation of this involves considering passengers to be of three types: a proportion q whose arrival time is causally coincidental with the bus, a proportion p (1 - q ) who arrive at the optimal time (the time at which the expected waiting time is smallest), and a proportion (1 - p )(1 - q ) who arrive at random. It was found that p is positively correlated with the expected gain from arriving at the optimal time as opposed to arriving at random. Furthermore, p was found to be larger at those bus stops observed in the peak than at those observed in the off-peak. A number of other results relating various parameters of the bus services are also given.

Suggested Citation

  • J. K. Jolliffe & T. P. Hutchinson, 1975. "A Behavioural Explanation of the Association Between Bus and Passenger Arrivals at a Bus Stop," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 248-282, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:9:y:1975:i:3:p:248-282
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.9.3.248
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    Cited by:

    1. de Palma, André & Lindsey, Robin, 2001. "Optimal timetables for public transportation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 789-813, September.
    2. Mohammad Reza Amin-Naseri & Vahid Baradaran, 2015. "Accurate Estimation of Average Waiting Time in Public Transportation Systems," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(2), pages 213-222, May.
    3. Guido Gentile & Sang Nguyen & Stefano Pallottino, 2005. "Route Choice on Transit Networks with Online Information at Stops," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(3), pages 289-297, August.
    4. Andres, Matthias & Nair, Rahul, 2017. "A predictive-control framework to address bus bunching," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 123-148.
    5. Dessouky, Maged & Singh, Ajay & Hall, Randolph, 1997. "Transit ITS Simulator (TRANSITS): Design Document," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt49k184rv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    6. Barabino, Benedetto & Di Francesco, Massimo & Mozzoni, Sara, 2015. "Rethinking bus punctuality by integrating Automatic Vehicle Location data and passenger patterns," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 84-95.
    7. Mark D. Hickman, 2001. "An Analytic Stochastic Model for the Transit Vehicle Holding Problem," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 215-237, August.
    8. Alexander Webb & Pramesh Kumar & Alireza Khani, 2020. "Estimation of passenger waiting time using automatically collected transit data," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 299-311, June.
    9. Tisato, Peter, 1998. "Service unreliability and bus subsidy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 423-436, August.
    10. Yu, Ming-Miin & Chen, Li-Hsueh & Hsiao, Bo, 2018. "A performance-based subsidy allocation of ferry transportation: A data envelopment approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 13-19.
    11. Klumpenhouwer, W. & Wirasinghe, S.C., 2018. "Optimal time point configuration of a bus route - A Markovian approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 117(PA), pages 209-227.

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