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Judgmental Errors, Interactive Norms, and the Difficulty of Detecting Strategic Surprises

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  • Joseph Lampel

    (University of Nottingham, Business School, Nottingham, United Kingdom, NG8 1AE)

  • Zur Shapira

    (Stern School of Business, New York University, 44 W. 4th Street, New York, New York 10012)

Abstract

The concept of strategic surprise has been used by writers on military strategy to explore the successful amplification of resources during battle. This paper applies the same concept to subcontracting relationships and develops a cognitive framework to explain the phenomenon of strategic surprises, using buyer-supplier relations as an example. We first examine the factors that produce vulnerability to strategic surprise in cooperative situations. Then, we explore the reasons why firms are caught by surprise in spite of their vigilance. We present a model representing false alarms and strategic surprises as judgmental errors. We argue that judgmental errors cause misinterpretation of evidence and a consequent sense of false security. Interactive norms, which exist in some industries and may be taken as proxies for enduring relationships, may increase the likelihood of misjudgment and strategic surprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Lampel & Zur Shapira, 2001. "Judgmental Errors, Interactive Norms, and the Difficulty of Detecting Strategic Surprises," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(5), pages 599-611, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ororsc:v:12:y:2001:i:5:p:599-611
    DOI: 10.1287/orsc.12.5.599.10094
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    Cited by:

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    9. Miguel Pina e Cunha & Ken Kamoche & Stewart R. Clegg, 2004. "Clues, cues and complexity: unpacking the concept of organizational surprise," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp453, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    10. Michael P. Haselhuhn & Devin G. Pope & Maurice E. Schweitzer & Peter Fishman, 2012. "The Impact of Personal Experience on Behavior: Evidence from Video-Rental Fines," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 52-61, January.
    11. Arman ESHRAGHI & TAKAHASHI Hidetomo & XU Peng, 2021. "Early-Life War Experiences and Corporate Financial Outcomes," Discussion papers 21081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. C. Gopinath, 2005. "Recognizing Decline: The Role of Triggers," American Journal of Business, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 21-27.
    13. Joseph Lampel & Jamal Shamsie & Zur Shapira, 2009. "Experiencing the Improbable: Rare Events and Organizational Learning," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(5), pages 835-845, October.
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    15. Corrado Gatti, 2007. "Philip Bromiley, The Behavioral Foundations of Strategic Management," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 11(1), pages 105-109, March.
    16. Miguel Pina e Cunha, 2003. "Time travelling: organisational foresight as temporal reflexity," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp426, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
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    19. Stephanie Duchek, 2020. "Organizational resilience: a capability-based conceptualization," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(1), pages 215-246, April.

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