IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v64y2018i1p198-214.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty and Sectoral Shifts: The Interaction Between Firm-Level and Aggregate-Level Shocks, and Macroeconomic Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Alon Kalay

    (Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • Suresh Nallareddy

    (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708)

  • Gil Sadka

    (University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas 75080)

Abstract

This study predicts and finds that the interaction of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks explains a significant portion of shocks to macroeconomic activity. Specifically, we hypothesize that the relation between uncertainty and economic growth is most pronounced when both firm-level and aggregate-level uncertainty are high simultaneously. Similarly, we hypothesize that aggregate performance affects unemployment most when both firm-level dispersion is high and aggregate performance is low, based on the sectoral shift theory. Our hypotheses and empirical results show that the interactive effect of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks are larger than the sum of the individual effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Alon Kalay & Suresh Nallareddy & Gil Sadka, 2018. "Uncertainty and Sectoral Shifts: The Interaction Between Firm-Level and Aggregate-Level Shocks, and Macroeconomic Activity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(1), pages 198-214, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:64:y:2018:i:1:p:198-214
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2581
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2581
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2581?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    3. Judson A. Caskey, 2009. "Information in Equity Markets with Ambiguity-Averse Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3595-3627, September.
    4. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    5. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    6. Baker, Scott R. & Bloom, Nicholas, 2013. "Does uncertainty reduce growth? Using disasters as natural experiments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121906, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P. & Rayburn, Judy Dawson, 1987. "Firm size and the information content of prices with respect to earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 111-138, July.
    8. Maria Ogneva, 2013. "Discussion of What Do Management Earnings Forecasts Convey About the Macroeconomy?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 267-279, May.
    9. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August.
    10. Anilowski, Carol & Feng, Mei & Skinner, Douglas J., 2007. "Does earnings guidance affect market returns? The nature and information content of aggregate earnings guidance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 36-63, September.
    11. Konchitchki, Yaniv & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2014. "Accounting earnings and gross domestic product," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 76-88.
    12. Baghestani, Hamid, 2009. "Survey evidence on forecast accuracy of U.S. term spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 156-162, August.
    13. Samuel B. Bonsall & Zahn Bozanic & Paul E.. Fischer, 2013. "What Do Management Earnings Forecasts Convey About the Macroeconomy?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 225-266, May.
    14. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P., 1989. "An analysis of intertemporal and cross-sectional determinants of earnings response coefficients," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 143-181, July.
    15. Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2007. "Aggregate earnings, stock market returns and macroeconomic activity: A discussion of `does earnings guidance affect market returns? The nature and information content of aggregate earnings guidance'," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 64-73, September.
    16. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-522, June.
    17. Gallo, Lindsey A. & Hann, Rebecca N. & Li, Congcong, 2016. "Aggregate earnings surprises, monetary policy, and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 103-120.
    18. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    19. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1413, August.
    20. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    21. Loungani, Prakash & Rush, Mark & Tave, William, 1990. "Stock market dispersion and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 367-388, June.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:4:p:1393-1414 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    24. Barry, Christopher B. & Brown, Stephen J., 1985. "Differential Information and Security Market Equilibrium," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 407-422, December.
    25. Jorgensen, Bjorn & Li, Jing & Sadka, Gil, 2012. "Earnings dispersion and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-20.
    26. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Prescott, Edward C., 1974. "Equilibrium search and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 188-209, February.
    27. Hosios, Arthur J, 1994. "Unemployment and Vacancies with Sectoral Shifts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 124-144, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Berner, Julian & Buchholz, Manuel & Tonzer, Lena, 2020. "Asymmetric investment responses to firm-specific forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Kimberly A. Berg & Nam T. Vu, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of sectoral shifts under low and high uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1149-1171, July.
    3. Fabio B. Gaertner & Asad Kausar & Logan B. Steele, 2020. "Negative accounting earnings and gross domestic product," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1382-1409, December.
    4. Gkougkousi, Xanthi & John, Kose & Radhakrishnan, Suresh & Sadka, Gil & Saunders, Anthony, 2022. "Cross-sectional dispersion and bank performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Binz, Oliver & Mayew, William J. & Nallareddy, Suresh, 2022. "Firms’ response to macroeconomic estimation errors," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).
    6. Manuel Buchholz & Lena Tonzer & Julian Berner, 2022. "Firm‐specific forecast errors and asymmetric investment propensity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 764-793, April.
    7. Ciao-Wei Chen & Laura Yue Li, 2023. "Is hiring fast a good sign? The informativeness of job vacancy duration for future firm profitability," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1316-1353, September.
    8. Olajide O. Oyadeyi, 2024. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Sectoral Output in Nigeria," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-41, November.
    9. Heater, John C. & Nallareddy, Suresh & Venkatachalam, Mohan, 2021. "Aggregate accruals and market returns: The role of aggregate M&A activity," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jorgensen, Bjorn & Li, Jing & Sadka, Gil, 2012. "Earnings dispersion and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-20.
    2. Ball, Ray & Sadka, Gil, 2015. "Aggregate earnings and why they matter," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 39-57.
    3. Binz, Oliver & Mayew, William J. & Nallareddy, Suresh, 2022. "Firms’ response to macroeconomic estimation errors," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).
    4. Gkougkousi, Xanthi & John, Kose & Radhakrishnan, Suresh & Sadka, Gil & Saunders, Anthony, 2022. "Cross-sectional dispersion and bank performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Marton Lotz & Daniel Ruf & Johannes Strobel, 2023. "Uncertainty premia in REIT returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 372-407, March.
    6. González-Sánchez, Mariano & Nave, Juan & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2020. "Effects of uncertainty and risk aversion on the exposure of investment-style factor returns to real activity," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    7. Yuto Yoshinaga, 2016. "Market-Wide Cost of Capital Impacts on the Aggregate Earnings-Returns Relation: Evidence from Japan," The Japanese Accounting Review, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, vol. 6, pages 95-122, December.
    8. Kimberly A. Berg & Nam T. Vu, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of sectoral shifts under low and high uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1149-1171, July.
    9. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    10. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Job Reallocations: A Survey," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 5(2), pages 127-176, December.
    11. Caldara, Dario & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Gilchrist, Simon & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2016. "The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 185-207.
    12. Jinzhu Chen & Prakash Kannan & Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 2012. "New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-23.
    13. Helmut Herwartz & Alexander Lange, 2024. "How certain are we about the role of uncertainty in the economy?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 126-149, January.
    14. Bhanu Pratap & Nalin Priyaranjan, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty: a Google trends-based analysis for India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1599-1625, October.
    15. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Huang, Yi & Loungani, Prakash, 2018. "Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: The role of credit constraints," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 314-330.
    16. Chris Redl, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 361-380, September.
    17. Carolin Pflueger & Emil Siriwardane & Adi Sunderam, 2019. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 26290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Iván Alfaro & Nicholas Bloom & Xiaoji Lin, 2024. "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 577-615.
    19. Angelidis, Timotheos & Sakkas, Athanasios & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2015. "Stock market dispersion, the business cycle and expected factor returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 265-279.
    20. Kronen Dominik & Belke Ansgar, 2017. "The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro Variables – An SVAR-Based Empirical Analysis for EU Countries," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(2), pages 93-116, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:64:y:2018:i:1:p:198-214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.