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Aggregate earnings surprises, monetary policy, and stock returns

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  • Gallo, Lindsey A.
  • Hann, Rebecca N.
  • Li, Congcong

Abstract

This paper examines whether the negative association between aggregate earnings and returns is explained by the monetary policy news in aggregate earnings. Using Federal funds futures data to construct a measure of policy news, we find that aggregate earnings convey information about the Fed׳s policy actions. Additionally, the negative aggregate earnings-returns association is muted when we control for policy surprises. This result is more pronounced in periods with negative policy surprises, which tend to trigger a more significant market reaction. Taken together, these results suggest that aggregate earnings convey policy news and the market reacts negatively to policy surprises, which drives the negative aggregate earnings-returns association.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallo, Lindsey A. & Hann, Rebecca N. & Li, Congcong, 2016. "Aggregate earnings surprises, monetary policy, and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 103-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:62:y:2016:i:1:p:103-120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2016.04.003
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    3. Fabio B. Gaertner & Asad Kausar & Logan B. Steele, 2020. "Negative accounting earnings and gross domestic product," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1382-1409, December.
    4. Petr Jakubik, 2020. "The impact of EIOPA statement on insurers dividends: evidence from equity market," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 18, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
    5. Safdar, Irfan, 2018. "The information content of aggregate profitability," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 497-515.
    6. Armstrong, Christopher S. & Glaeser, Stephen & Kepler, John D., 2019. "Accounting quality and the transmission of monetary policy," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2).
    7. Abdalla, Ahmed & Carabias, Jose M., 2022. "From accounting to economics: the role of aggregate special items in gauging the state of the economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108540, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Papa Gueye Fam & Rachida Hennani & Nicolas Huchet, 2017. "U.S. Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices And The Financialization Hypothesis," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 20, pages 53-77, December.
    9. Ryan T. Ball & Lindsey Gallo & Eric Ghysels, 2019. "Tilting the evidence: the role of firm-level earnings attributes in the relation between aggregated earnings and gross domestic product," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 570-592, June.
    10. Jaewoo Kim & Bryce Schonberger & Charles Wasley & Hunter Land, 2020. "Intertemporal variation in the information content of aggregate earnings and its effect on the aggregate earnings-return relation," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1410-1443, December.
    11. Alon Kalay & Suresh Nallareddy & Gil Sadka, 2018. "Uncertainty and Sectoral Shifts: The Interaction Between Firm-Level and Aggregate-Level Shocks, and Macroeconomic Activity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(1), pages 198-214, January.
    12. B., Anand & Paul, Sunil, 2021. "Oil shocks and stock market: Revisiting the dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    13. Wiesen, Taylor, 2023. "Aggregate earnings and market expectations in United States presidential election prediction markets," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    14. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    15. Neeraj J. Gupta & Vitaliy Strohush & Reilly White, 2019. "Investor reaction to simultaneous news releases: unemployment vs. earnings," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 735-749, October.
    16. Wensheng Kang & Jing Wang, 2021. "Corporate tax effects of economic policy uncertainty," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(S1), pages 2577-2600, April.
    17. Stephanie F. Cheng, 2021. "The Information Externality of Public Firms’ Financial Information in the State‐Bond Secondary Market," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 529-574, May.
    18. Fahd Alduais, 2020. "An empirical study of the earnings–returns association: an evidence from China’s A-share market," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, December.
    19. Petr Jakubik & Saida Teleu, 2022. "Suspension of insurers’ dividends as a response to the COVID-19 crisis: evidence from the European insurance equity market," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(4), pages 785-816, October.
    20. Vinay Goyal & Subrata K. Mitra, 2022. "Is the asymmetric impact of aggregate revenue and aggregate earnings on the stock index in accordance with the prospect theory?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 200-222, March.
    21. Shevlin, Terry & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan & Urcan, Oktay, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of corporate tax policy," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1).
    22. Eddie Chamisa & Musa Mangena & Hamutyinei Harvey Pamburai & Venancio Tauringana, 2018. "Financial reporting in hyperinflationary economies and the value relevance of accounting amounts: hard evidence from Zimbabwe," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1241-1273, December.
    23. Heater, John C. & Nallareddy, Suresh & Venkatachalam, Mohan, 2021. "Aggregate accruals and market returns: The role of aggregate M&A activity," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2).
    24. Ed deHaan & Ties de Kok & Dawn Matsumoto & Edgar Rodriguez-Vazquez, 2023. "How Resilient Are Firms’ Financial Reporting Processes?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 2536-2545, April.
    25. Yuto Yoshinaga, 2016. "Market-Wide Cost of Capital Impacts on the Aggregate Earnings-Returns Relation: Evidence from Japan," The Japanese Accounting Review, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, vol. 6, pages 95-122, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregate earnings; Monetary policy; Stock returns; Federal funds futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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