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Momentum and Organizational Risk Taking: Evidence from the National Football League

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  • David W. Lehman

    (McIntire School of Commerce, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22904)

  • Jungpil Hahn

    (School of Computing, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117417)

Abstract

This study examines how momentum shapes organizational risk taking. We define momentum as a sustained and systematic trajectory in performance over time, and we argue that such trends impact interpretations of current performance as well as expectations of future performance. Drawing on the variable focus of attention model, we posit that momentum therefore directs the focus of organizational attention between concerns of aspirations, survival, and slack. Our conceptual model accounts for momentum that occurs within a performance period as well as that which occurs across periods. We propose that within- and across-period momentums are unique in terms of when and how each type impacts risk taking. We tested and found support for our hypotheses in the context of 22,603 play-by-play decisions made by the 32 teams of the National Football League during the 2000--2005 regular season games. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. This paper was accepted by Jesper Sørensen, organizations.

Suggested Citation

  • David W. Lehman & Jungpil Hahn, 2013. "Momentum and Organizational Risk Taking: Evidence from the National Football League," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(4), pages 852-868, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:59:y:2013:i:4:p:852-868
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1120.1574
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    3. Kniffin, Kevin M. & Mihalek, Vince, 2014. "Within-series momentum in hockey: No returns for running up the score," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 400-402.
    4. Roulleau-Pasdeloup, Jordan, 2020. "A Puncher’s chance: Expected gain and risk taking in a market for superstars," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Marius Ötting & Roland Langrock & Antonello Maruotti, 2023. "A copula-based multivariate hidden Markov model for modelling momentum in football," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(1), pages 9-27, March.
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    7. Brian Goff & Stephen L. Locke, 2019. "Revisiting Romer: Digging Deeper Into Influences on NFL Managerial Decisions," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(5), pages 671-689, June.
    8. Morgulev, Elia & Azar, Ofer H. & Bar-Eli, Michael, 2019. "Does a “comeback” create momentum in overtime? Analysis of NBA tied games," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    9. Li, Jingxin & Ye, Yong & Li, Jingxuan, 2024. "Performance feedback and corporate maturity mismatch: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    10. Bühren Christoph & Gabriel Marvin, 2023. "Performing best when it matters the most: evidence from professional handball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 185-203, September.
    11. van den Oever, Koen, 2017. "Uncharted waters : A behavioral approach to when, why and which organizational changes are adopted," Other publications TiSEM 0136c8c2-ecdd-4f82-8ca7-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Miller, Danny & Pastoriza, David & Plante, Jean-François, 2019. "Conditioning competitive risk: Competitors’ rank proximity and relative ability," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 161-175.
    13. Christoph Buehren & Marvin Gabriel, 2021. "Performing best when it matters the most: Evidence from professional handball," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202119, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    14. Christoph Bühren & Philip J. Steinberg, 2017. "The impact of psychological traits on performance in sequential tournaments: Evidence from a tennis field experiment," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201705, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Bixiang Shi & Fangcheng Tang & Fenfen Wei, 2022. "The Path Constitution of Platform Evolution: An Organizational Momentum View," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-22, July.
    16. Pastoriza, David & Alegre, Inés & Canela, Miguel A., 2021. "Conditioning the effect of prize on tournament self-selection," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    17. Michael A. Roach & Mark F. Owens, 2024. "Updating Beliefs Based on Observed Performance: Evidence From NFL Head Coaches," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 369-387, April.
    18. Christoph Buehren & Lisa Traeger, 2020. "The Impact of Psychological Pressure and Psychological Traits on Performance – Experimental Evidence of Penalties in Handball," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202043, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    19. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2014. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy," Working Papers 518, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    20. Situmeang, Frederik B.I. & Gemser, Gerda & Wijnberg, Nachoem M. & Leenders, Mark A.A.M, 2016. "Risk-taking behavior of technology firms: The role of performance feedback in the video game industry," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 22-34.
    21. Iana Shaheen & Arash Azadegan & Samuel Roscoe, 2021. "Who Takes Risks? A Framework on Organizational Risk‐Taking During Sudden‐Onset Disasters," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(11), pages 4023-4043, November.

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