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Overconfidence by Bayesian-Rational Agents

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  • Eric Van den Steen

    (Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02163)

Abstract

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one mechanism is slightly ironic: In trying to update optimally, Bayesian agents overweight information of which they overestimate the precision and underweight in the opposite case. This causes overall an overestimation of the precision of the final estimate, which tends to increase as agents get more data. This paper was accepted by Teck Ho, decision analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Van den Steen, 2011. "Overconfidence by Bayesian-Rational Agents," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 884-896, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:5:p:884-896
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1323
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    21. Shoufeng Ji & Dan Zhao & Xiaoshuai Peng, 2018. "Joint Decisions on Emission Reduction and Inventory Replenishment with Overconfidence and Low-Carbon Preference," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    22. Citci, Sadettin Haluk & Inci, Eren, 2016. "Career concerns and Bayesian overconfidence of managers," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 137-159.
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