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Comments on ÜModels and Managers: The Concept of a Decision CalculusÝ

Author

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  • John D. C. Little

    (Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142)

Abstract

Managerial models for practice have undergone remarkable growth in the past 50 years. My paper on decision calculus, published in 1970, was both a progress report and a prescription for improvement. This commentary describes why I wrote the paper, my perception of why it has been considered influential, and a brief overview of what has happened since. The overview starts by tracing the trends and ideas of the 1960s into the 1970s. The 1970s blend easily into the era of decision support systems (DSS). Starting late in the decade and still continuing, DSSs have evolved rapidly due to an explosion of data, increased computer power, and advances in modeling methods. I review highlights of this evolution from the point of view of managerial models, giving special emphasis to marketing, since that has been my window on this world. The good news is that more managers than ever are using models. The bad news is that many managers do not even realize they are using models! (But we should ask whether this is really bad.) The commentary concludes with thoughts about the future of managerial models. The selection of my paper as one of the most influential in the first 50 years of Management Science was a significant honor for which I am grateful. I take it as an indication by the members of INFORMS of the importance to our field of the issues addressed.

Suggested Citation

  • John D. C. Little, 2004. "Comments on ÜModels and Managers: The Concept of a Decision CalculusÝ," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1854-1860, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:50:y:2004:i:12_supplement:p:1854-1860
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1040.0310
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John D. C. Little & Leonard M. Lodish, 1969. "A Media Planning Calculus," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 1-35, February.
    2. Peter M. Guadagni & John D. C. Little, 1983. "A Logit Model of Brand Choice Calibrated on Scanner Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 203-238.
    3. John R. Hauser & Steven M. Shugan, 2008. "Defensive Marketing Strategies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 88-110, 01-02.
    4. John D. C. Little, 1975. "BRANDAID: A Marketing-Mix Model, Part 1: Structure," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 628-655, August.
    5. Jerry Wind & Paul E. Green & Douglas Shifflet & Marsha Scarbrough, 1989. "Courtyard by Marriott : Designing a Hotel Facility with Consumer-Based Marketing Models," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 19(1), pages 25-47, February.
    6. Bernard Pras & Gilles Laurent & Gary L. Lilien, 1994. "Research Traditions in Marketing," Post-Print halshs-00150675, HAL.
    7. Berend Wierenga & Gerrit H. Van Bruggen & Richard Staelin, 1999. "The Success of Marketing Management Support Systems," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 196-207.
    8. John D. C. Little, 1970. "Models and Managers: The Concept of a Decision Calculus," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(8), pages 466-485, April.
    9. David B. Montgomery & Alvin J. Silk & Carlos E. Zaragoza, 1971. "A Multiple-Product Sales Force Allocation Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(4-Part-II), pages 3-24, December.
    10. Magid M. Abraham & Leonard M. Lodish, 1993. "An Implemented System for Improving Promotion Productivity Using Store Scanner Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 248-269.
    11. Leeflang, P.S.H. & Wittink, Dick R., 2000. "Building models for marketing decisions: past, present and future," Research Report 00F20, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    12. John D. C. Little, 1975. "BRANDAID: A Marketing-Mix Model, Part 2: Implementation, Calibration, and Case Study," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 656-673, August.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3445 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Glen L. Urban & John R. Hauser & John H. Roberts, 1990. "Prelaunch Forecasting of New Automobiles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(4), pages 401-421, April.
    15. Leonard M. Lodish & Ellen Curtis & Michael Ness & M. Kerry Simpson, 1988. "Sales Force Sizing and Deployment Using a Decision Calculus Model at Syntex Laboratories," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 18(1), pages 5-20, February.
    16. Randolph E. Bucklin & Sunil Gupta, 1999. "Commercial Use of UPC Scanner Data: Industry and Academic Perspectives," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 247-273.
    17. Frank M. Bass & Kent Gordon & Teresa L. Ferguson & Mary Lou Githens, 2001. "DIRECTV: Forecasting Diffusion of a New Technology Prior to Product Launch," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(3_supplem), pages 82-93, June.
    18. repec:dgr:rugsom:00f20 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Leonard M. Lodish, 1971. "Callplan: An Interactive Salesman's Call Planning System," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(4-Part-II), pages 25-40, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Claassen, G.D.H., 2014. "Mixed integer (0–1) fractional programming for decision support in paper production industry," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 21-29.

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