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News: A Decision-Oriented Model for New Product Analysis and Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Lewis G. Pringle

    (BBDO, Inc., 383 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10017)

  • R. Dale Wilson

    (BBDO, Inc., 383 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10017)

  • Edward I. Brody

    (BBDO, Inc., 383 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10017)

Abstract

Modeling efforts in the area of new product introductions have had a significant impact on marketing planning and strategy. One result of these efforts, BBDO's New Product Early Warning System (NEWS), has been used since the late 1960s to provide marketing managers with forecasts and diagnostic information regarding their new product strategies. This article presents the specification of the NEWS model, its parameter estimation methods, and its validation. A brief case history is also included which illustrates how the model is applied in a typical new product situation. NEWS is designed to use a variety of readily obtainable input data to generate forecasts of consumer awareness, trial, repeat purchase, usage, sales, and market share for a new brand. These outputs, combined with diagnostics from the model, can then be incorporated into the marketing plan in a way that will improve the new entry's chances of success in the marketplace. The model can be used to project early test market data (NEWS/Market); or it can be used to analyze pre-test market data (NEWS/Planner).

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis G. Pringle & R. Dale Wilson & Edward I. Brody, 1982. "News: A Decision-Oriented Model for New Product Analysis and Forecasting," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:1:y:1982:i:1:p:1-29
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1.1.1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Hao & Elbakidze, Levan, 2016. "Application of Regression Discontinuity Approach in Experimental Auctions: A Case Study of Gaining Participants’ Trust and Their Willingness to Pay," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236149, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Urban, Glen L. & Weinberg, Bruce D. & Hauser, John R., 1994. "Premarket forecasting of really new products," Working papers 3689-94., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    3. Jehoshua Eliashberg & Jedid-Jah Jonker & Mohanbir S. Sawhney & Berend Wierenga, 2000. "MOVIEMOD: An Implementable Decision-Support System for Prerelease Market Evaluation of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 226-243, January.
    4. Urban, Glen L. & Hulland, John S. & Weinberg, Bruce., 1990. "Modeling, categorization, elimination, and consideration for new product forecasting of consumer durables," Working papers 3206-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    5. Urban, Glen L. & Roberts, John H. & Hauser, John R., 1986. "Prelaunch forecasting of new automobiles : models and implementation," Working papers 1820-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    6. Preyas S. Desai & David Bell & Gary Lilien & David Soberman, 2012. "Editorial --The Science-to-Practice Initiative: Getting New Marketing Science Thinking into the Real World," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(1), pages 1-3, January.
    7. Richard C. Hanna & Scott D. Swain & Paul D. Berger, 2016. "Optimizing time-limited price promotions," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 77-92, July.
    8. Edward I. Brody, 2001. "Marketing Engineering at BBDO," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(3_supplem), pages 74-81, June.
    9. Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Chun-Yao Huang, 2004. "A Dynamic Changepoint Model for New Product Sales Forecasting," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 50-65, October.
    10. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2010. "Using copulas to model repeat purchase behaviour - An exploratory analysis via a case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 908-917, February.
    11. Morwitz, Vicki G. & Steckel, Joel H. & Gupta, Alok, 2007. "When do purchase intentions predict sales?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 347-364.

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