Development Trajectory of Blockchain Platforms: The Role of Multirole

We develop a parametric model that investigates the development trajectories of blockchain platforms, accounting for the feedback between blockchains’ utility change and people’s adoption and abandonment behavior. A typical blockchain participant is considered to simultaneously play three roles on the platform, user, investor, and laborer, each contributing a unique element to blockchains’ multifaceted utility. The model predicts a three-phase development trajectory for blockchain platforms: a chaotic initial stage, a rapid growth stage, and a mature stage of stable market cycles. The roles have different functions at different developmental stages, and their interactions determine phase transitions. The model was used to match 112 token price series, demonstrating robust performance across different fitting setups and outperforming existing models. The study identifies two temporal parameters—the time delay in quitting the platform and the holding time of the platform’s token—that significantly differentiate blockchains’ development trajectories. We also extend the model to study forking events, finding that fork launch time is more important than forking amplitude in influencing the main chain’s subsequent development and that forking can increase the exposure of the forked platform.