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Economically Efficient Standards to Protect the Netherlands Against Flooding

Author

Listed:
  • Carel Eijgenraam

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, 2585JR The Hague, The Netherlands)

  • Jarl Kind

    (Deltares, 3584CB Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Carlijn Bak

    (Deltares, 3584CB Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Ruud Brekelmans

    (Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, 5000LE Tilburg, The Netherlands)

  • Dick den Hertog

    (Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, 5000LE Tilburg, The Netherlands)

  • Matthijs Duits

    (HKV Consultants, 8232JN Lelystad, The Netherlands)

  • Kees Roos

    (Department of Information Systems and Algorithms, Delft University of Technology, 2628CD Delft, The Netherlands)

  • Pieter Vermeer

    (Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, 2597JG The Hague, The Netherlands)

  • Wim Kuijken

    (Delta Commissioner, 2511EG The Hague, The Netherlands)

Abstract

In the Netherlands, flood protection is a matter of national survival. In 2008, the Second Delta Committee recommended increasing legal flood protection standards at least tenfold to compensate for population and economic growth since 1953; this recommendation would have required dike improvement investments estimated at 11.5 billion euro. Our research group was charged with developing efficient flood protection standards in a more objective way. We used cost-benefit analysis and mixed-integer nonlinear programming to demonstrate the efficiency of increasing the legal standards in three critical regions only. Monte Carlo analysis confirms the robustness of this recommendation. In 2012, the state secretary of the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment accepted our results as a basis for legislation. Compared to the earlier recommendation, this successful application of operations research yields both a highly significant increase in protection for these regions (in which two-thirds of the benefits of the proposed improvements accrue) and approximately 7.8 billion euro in cost savings. Our methods can also be used in decision making for other flood-prone areas worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Carel Eijgenraam & Jarl Kind & Carlijn Bak & Ruud Brekelmans & Dick den Hertog & Matthijs Duits & Kees Roos & Pieter Vermeer & Wim Kuijken, 2014. "Economically Efficient Standards to Protect the Netherlands Against Flooding," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 7-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:44:y:2014:i:1:p:7-21
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.2013.0721
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ruud Brekelmans & Dick den Hertog & Kees Roos & Carel Eijgenraam, 2012. "Safe Dike Heights at Minimal Costs: The Nonhomogeneous Case," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1342-1355, December.
    2. Marija Bockarjova & Piet Rietveld & Erik T. Verhoef, 2012. "Composite Valuation of Immaterial Damage in Flooding: Value of Statistical Life, Value of Statistical Evacuation and Value of Statistical Injury," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-047/3, Tinbergen Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. T. D. Pol & S. Gabbert & H.-P. Weikard & E. C. Ierland & E. M. T. Hendrix, 2017. "A Minimax Regret Analysis of Flood Risk Management Strategies Under Climate Change Uncertainty and Emerging Information," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(4), pages 1087-1109, December.
    2. Xie, Yang & Zilberman, David, 2018. "Implications of Spatial Externality of Flood Control: Land Reclamation, Wetland Reservation, and Investment in Flood Control Facilities," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274445, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Anton Shevchenko & Moren Lévesque & Mark Pagell, 2016. "Why Firms Delay Reaching True Sustainability," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(5), pages 911-935, July.
    4. Peter Zwaneveld & Gerard Verweij, 2018. "Economic Decision Problems in Multi-Level Flood Prevention: a new graph-based approach used for real world applications," CPB Discussion Paper 380, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. ten Eikelder, S.C.M. & van Amerongen, J.H.M., 2023. "Resource allocation problems with expensive function evaluations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(3), pages 1170-1185.
    6. Peter Zwaneveld & Gerard Verweij, 2014. "Safe Dike Heights at Minimal Costs: An Integer Programming Approach," CPB Discussion Paper 277.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Grames, Johanna & Prskawetz, Alexia & Grass, Dieter & Viglione, Alberto & Blöschl, Günter, 2016. "Modeling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 193-209.
    8. Perry C. Oddo & Ben S. Lee & Gregory G. Garner & Vivek Srikrishnan & Patrick M. Reed & Chris E. Forest & Klaus Keller, 2020. "Deep Uncertainties in Sea‐Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 153-168, January.
    9. Alessio Ciullo & Jan H. Kwakkel & Karin M. De Bruijn & Neelke Doorn & Frans Klijn, 2020. "Efficient or Fair? Operationalizing Ethical Principles in Flood Risk Management: A Case Study on the Dutch‐German Rhine," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1844-1862, September.
    10. Postek, Krzysztof & den Hertog, Dick & Kind, Jarl & Pustjens, Chris, 2019. "Adjustable robust strategies for flood protection," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 142-154.
    11. Rongen, G. & Morales-Nápoles, O. & Kok, M., 2022. "Expert judgment-based reliability analysis of the Dutch flood defense system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    12. Charles Sims & Sarah E. Null, 2019. "Climate Forecasts and Flood Mitigation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(4), pages 1083-1107, April.
    13. Klerk, Wouter Jan & Kanning, Wim & Kok, Matthijs & Wolfert, Rogier, 2021. "Optimal planning of flood defence system reinforcements using a greedy search algorithm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    14. Meri Davlasheridze & Qin Fan & Wesley Highfield & Jiaochen Liang, 2021. "Economic impacts of storm surge events: examining state and national ripple effects," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-20, May.
    15. Postek, Krzysztof & den Hertog, Dick & Kind, J. & Pustjens, Chris, 2016. "Adjustable Robust Strategies for Flood Protection," Discussion Paper 2016-038, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    16. Peter Zwaneveld & Gerard Verweij, 2018. "Economic Decision Problems in Multi-Level Flood Prevention: a new graph-based approach used for real world applications," CPB Discussion Paper 380.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Peter Zwaneveld & Gerard Verweij, 2014. "Safe Dike Heights at Minimal Costs: An Integer Programming Approach," CPB Discussion Paper 277, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Postek, Krzysztof & den Hertog, Dick & Kind, J. & Pustjens, Chris, 2016. "Adjustable Robust Strategies for Flood Protection," Other publications TiSEM 6e85c2ff-32dd-4c7e-8d95-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Johanna Grames & Dieter Grass & Peter M. Kort & Alexia Prskawetz, 2019. "Optimal investment and location decisions of a firm in a flood risk area using impulse control theory," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(4), pages 1051-1077, December.
    20. Carel Eijgenraam & Ruud Brekelmans & Dick den Hertog & Kees Roos, 2017. "Optimal Strategies for Flood Prevention," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1644-1656, May.
    21. Bos, Frits & Zwaneveld, Peter, 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis for flood risk management and water governance in the Netherlands; an overview of one century," MPRA Paper 80933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Asadabadi, Ali & Miller-Hooks, Elise, 2017. "Optimal transportation and shoreline infrastructure investment planning under a stochastic climate future," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 156-174.
    23. Asadabadi, Ali & Miller-Hooks, Elise, 2017. "Assessing strategies for protecting transportation infrastructure from an uncertain climate future," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 27-41.
    24. den Heijer, Frank & Kok, Matthijs, 2024. "Risk-based portfolio planning of dike reinforcements," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).

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