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Fire Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants: Methodological Developments and Applications

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  • Mardyros Kazarians
  • Nathan O. Siu
  • George Apostolakis

Abstract

A methodology to quantify the risk from fires in nuclear power plants is described. This methodology combines engineering judgment, statistical evidence, fire phenomenology, and plant system analysis. It can be divided into two major parts: (1) fire scenario identification and quantification, and (2) analysis of the impact on plant safety. This article primarily concentrates on the first part. Statistical analysis of fire occurrence data is used to establish the likelihood of ignition. The temporal behaviors of the two competing phenomena, fire propagation and fire detection and suppression, are studied and their characteristic times are compared. Severity measures are used to further specialize the frequency of the fire scenario. The methodology is applied to a switchgear room of a nuclear power plant.

Suggested Citation

  • Mardyros Kazarians & Nathan O. Siu & George Apostolakis, 1985. "Fire Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants: Methodological Developments and Applications," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), pages 33-51, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:5:y:1985:i:1:p:33-51
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00150.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Greenberg & Charles Haas & Anthony Cox & Karen Lowrie & Katherine McComas & Warner North, 2012. "Ten Most Important Accomplishments in Risk Analysis, 1980–2010," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 771-781, May.
    2. Tianjun Feng & L. Robin Keller, 2006. "A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for Terrorism Protection: Potassium Iodide Distribution in Nuclear Incidents," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(2), pages 76-93, June.
    3. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 2012. "On “Black Swans” and “Perfect Storms”: Risk Analysis and Management When Statistics Are Not Enough," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1823-1833, November.

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