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What Is Six Hours Worth? The Impact of Lead Time on Tropical-Storm Preparation Decisions

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  • Eva D. Regnier

    (Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93943)

Abstract

Emergency managers must make high-stakes decisions regarding preparation for tropical storms when there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the storm’s impacts. Forecast quality improves as lead time until the forecast events declines. Reducing the lead time required for preparation decisions can substantially improve the quality of forecasts available for decision making and thereby, reduce the expected total costs of preparations plus storm damage. Measures of forecast quality are only indirectly linked to their value in preparation decisions and changes in the parameters of those decisions—in particular lead time. This paper provides decision-relevant measures of the quality of recent National Hurricane Center forecasts from the 2014–2018 seasons, which can be used to evaluate reductions in decision lead time in terms of false alarm rate, missed detections, and expected annual costs. For decision makers in some regions with decision lead times of 48–72 hours—typical for evacuation decisions—every 6-hour reduction in required lead time can reduce the false alarm rate by more than 10%.

Suggested Citation

  • Eva D. Regnier, 2020. "What Is Six Hours Worth? The Impact of Lead Time on Tropical-Storm Preparation Decisions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 9-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:17:y:2020:i:1:p:9-23
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.2019.0396
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Serhan Duran & Özlem Ergun & Pınar Keskinocak & Julie L. Swann, 2013. "Humanitarian Logistics: Advanced Purchasing and Pre-Positioning of Relief Items," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: James H. Bookbinder (ed.), Handbook of Global Logistics, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 447-462, Springer.
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    3. Eva Regnier, 2018. "Probability Forecasts Made at Multiple Lead Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 2407-2426, May.
    4. Eva D. Regnier & Cameron A. MacKenzie, 2019. "The Hurricane Decision Simulator: A Tool for Marine Forces in New Orleans to Practice Operations Management in Advance of a Hurricane," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 103-120, January.
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    2. William N. Caballero & Ethan Gharst & David Banks & Jeffery D. Weir, 2023. "Multipolar Security Cooperation Planning: A Multiobjective, Adversarial-Risk-Analysis Approach," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 16-39, March.

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