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The Effect of Information on Uncertainty and the Cost of Capital

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  • David Johnstone

Abstract

It is widely held that better financial reporting makes investors more confident in their predictions of future cash flows and reduces their required risk premia. The logic is that more information leads necessarily to more certainty, and hence lower subjective estimates of firm “beta†or covariance with other firms. This is misleading on both counts. Bayesian logic shows that the best available information can often leave decision makers less certain about future events. And for those cases where information indeed brings great certainty, conventional mean†variance asset†pricing models imply that more certain estimates of future cash payoffs can sometimes bring a higher cost of capital. This occurs when new or better information leads to sufficiently reduced expected firm payoffs. To properly understand the effect of signal quality on the cost of capital, it is essential to think of what that information says, rather than considering merely its “precision,†or how strongly it says what it says.

Suggested Citation

  • David Johnstone, 2016. "The Effect of Information on Uncertainty and the Cost of Capital," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(2), pages 752-774, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:33:y:2016:i:2:p:752-774
    DOI: 10.1111/1911-3846.12165
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Bin & An, Zhe & Gao, Xin & Li, Donghui, 2023. "Trademarks and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. D. J. Johnstone, 2021. "Accounting information, disclosure, and expected utility: Do investors really abhor uncertainty?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1-2), pages 3-35, January.
    3. Khalifa, Maha & Zouaoui, Haykel & Ben Othman, Hakim & Hussainey, Khaled, 2019. "Exploring the nonlinear effect of conditional conservatism on the cost of equity capital: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-1.
    4. John L. Campbell & Hye Seung “Grace” Lee & Hsin‐Min Lu & Logan B. Steele, 2020. "Express Yourself: Why Managers' Disclosure Tone Varies Across Time and What Investors Learn From It," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 1140-1171, June.
    5. David Johnstone & Steve Tulig, 2022. "Hamada’s equation and the beta of debt under CAPM," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2385-2399, June.
    6. Rjiba, Hatem & Saadi, Samir & Boubaker, Sabri & Ding, Xiaoya (Sara), 2021. "Annual report readability and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Johnstone, David & Havyatt, David, 2022. "Sophistry and high electricity prices in Australia," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Green, Lawrence & Sung, Ming-Chien & Ma, Tiejun & Johnson, Johnnie E. V., 2019. "To what extent can new web-based technology improve forecasts? Assessing the economic value of information derived from Virtual Globes and its rate of diffusion in a financial market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 226-239.
    9. Fernandes, Cecilia Melo, 2021. "ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2582, European Central Bank.
    10. Ratna Puji Astuti KRISMIAJI, 2021. "Accounting Conservatism and Cost of Equity Capital – Evidence from Indonesia," CECCAR Business Review, Body of Expert and Licensed Accountants of Romania (CECCAR), vol. 2(2), pages 64-72, February.
    11. David J Johnstone, 2023. "Capital budgeting and Kelly betting," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 48(3), pages 625-651, August.
    12. David Johnstone, 2020. "Reply to Linnenluecke, Shen, Smith, Zhu, and Liang (2020)," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 56(2), pages 292-294, June.
    13. David Johnstone, 2017. "Sensitivity of the Discount Rate to the Expected Payoff in Project Valuation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(2), pages 126-136, June.
    14. Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & McDonald, David C.J., 2016. "Informed trading, market efficiency and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 56-59.
    15. Thaddeus Neururer, 2020. "Past managerial guidance and returns to variance trading around earnings announcements," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2995-3031, September.
    16. Adrian, Christofer & Garg, Mukesh & Viet Pham, Anh & Phang, Soon-Yeow & Truong, Cameron, 2022. "Policy and oversight of corporate political activities and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2).
    17. Rao, Sandeep & Koirala, Santosh & Thapa, Chandra & Neupane, Suman, 2022. "When rain matters! Investments and value relevance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Cameron Truong & Thu Ha Nguyen & Thanh Huynh, 2021. "Customer satisfaction and the cost of capital," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 293-342, March.
    19. Johnstone, David, 2022. "Accounting research and the significance test crisis," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    20. Xuejing Xing & Shan Yan, 2019. "Accounting information quality and systematic risk," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 85-103, January.
    21. Huang, Yong & Yan, Chao, 2020. "Global accounting standards, financial statement comparability, and the cost of capital," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 301-318.
    22. Shuwen (Wendy) Cai & Jayne M. Godfrey & Robyn Moroney, 2017. "Impact of Segment†level Natural Resource Operational Risk Reporting on Earnings Predictions," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(4), pages 431-449, December.

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