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Projected Population, Inequality and Social Expenditures: The Case of Flanders

Author

Listed:
  • Rembert De Blander

    (Department of Economics, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.)

  • Ingrid Schockaert

    (Interface Demography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.)

  • André Decoster

    (Department of Economics, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.)

  • Patrick Deboosere

    (Interface Demography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.)

Abstract

We investigate the budgetary and distributional effects of a demographic and economic evolution in Flanders between 2011 and 2031. We project demographic changes by means of two multi-state population projections (LiPro-projections), on the basis of which we statically reweigh the EU-SILC 2008 dataset. In addition, we assume a modest real exogenous ?meaning not induced by the demographic projections? growth rate of 1%. Population-wise, we find a pronounced ageing, a growth of single-headed households, mostly to the detriment of couples with children, and a closing generational gap in education. While income inequality exhibits a non-monotonous pattern over time (reaching a maximum around 2020), poverty steadily declines after 2011. We find a large increase in expenditures on pensions, which is, however, covered by the modest public income growth we assume, while keeping the tax system constant in real terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Rembert De Blander & Ingrid Schockaert & André Decoster & Patrick Deboosere, 2017. "Projected Population, Inequality and Social Expenditures: The Case of Flanders," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 10(3), pages 92-133.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v10:y:2017:i:3:p:92-133
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    INEQUALITY; POVERTY; POPULATION PROJECTIONS; BUDGETARY SUSTAINABILITY;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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