IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jhouse/v65y2024ics1051137724000251.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How supply and demand affect national house prices: The case of Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Egan, Paul
  • McQuinn, Kieran
  • O'Toole, Conor

Abstract

While many western economies experienced substantial fluctuations in house prices since the turning of the century, the Irish residential market stands out as a particular case. Irish house prices experienced profound increases in the period leading up to the global financial crisis (GFC); thereafter the concomitant downturn in both the real Irish economy and financial sector precipitated a dramatic decline in prices between 2007 and 2012. However, since 2012 prices have increased in a sustained and persistent manner. A number of possible reasons are commonly cited for the recovery. In this paper we avail of a new housing and financial sector model, which are part of a broader macro-econometric model, COSMO, of the Irish economy to characterise the determinants of Irish house prices over the period 1995–2019 and in particular to examine the reasons for the post 2012 recovery. The suite of models are used to examine the contribution of developments in both monetary policy and financial stability as well as the performance of the real economy. The role played by the sluggish response of the supply-side of the Irish residential sector is also assessed. The supply-side of the Irish market was especially impacted by the GFC and has struggled to respond to the surge in housing demand which has accompanied the general economic recovery since 2012. Our results have interesting implications for the growing literature examining the intersection of monetary policy and financial stability on house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2024. "How supply and demand affect national house prices: The case of Ireland," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:65:y:2024:i:c:s1051137724000251
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137724000251
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jhe.2024.102006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2007. "Forecasting Housing Supply: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Market," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17.
    2. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2021. "What Drives House Price Cycles? International Experience and Policy Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 773-864, September.
    3. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    5. Christopher J. Mayer & C. Tsuriel Somerville, 1996. "Regional housing supply and credit constraints," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 39-51.
    6. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    7. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    8. Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2022. "A revised financial satellite model for COSMO," Papers WP737, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. John C Williams, 2016. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy on house prices and the economy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 7-16, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Malpezzi, Stephen & Maclennan, Duncan, 2001. "The Long-Run Price Elasticity of Supply of New Residential Construction in the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 278-306, September.
    11. Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017. "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers WP553, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2011. "Shifting credit standards and the boom and bust in U.S. house prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58533, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal & O’Toole, Conor, 2018. "Credit conditions, macroprudential policy and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 153-167.
    14. Robert Kelly & Kieran McQuinn, 2014. "On the Hook for Impaired Bank Lending: Do Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages Affect the Net Cost of a Fiscal Stimulus?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 95-128, September.
    15. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Staff Reports 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Geoffrey Meen, 2000. "Housing cycles and efficiency," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 114-140, May.
    17. Conefrey, Thomas & O'Reilly, Gerard & Walsh, Graeme, 2018. "Modelling external shocks in a small open economy: the case of Ireland," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 244, pages 56-63, May.
    18. Janine Aron & John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Keiko Murata & Anthony Murphy, 2012. "Credit, Housing Collateral, And Consumption: Evidence From Japan, The U.K., And The U.S," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(3), pages 397-423, September.
    19. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-740, August.
    20. Caldera, Aida & Johansson, Åsa, 2013. "The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 231-249.
    21. Kenny, Geoff, 2003. "Asymmetric adjustment costs and the dynamics of housing supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1097-1111, December.
    22. Granziera, Eleonora & Kozicki, Sharon, 2015. "House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 152-165.
    23. McQuinn, Kieran, 2021. "House prices and mortgage credit: Empirical evidence for Ireland — An update," Research Notes RN20210101, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    24. Robert Kelly & Kieran Mcquinn & Rebecca Stuart, 2011. "Exploring the Steady-State Relationship Between Credit and GDP for a Small Open Economy–The Case Of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(4), pages 455-477.
    25. Bergin, Adele & Economides, Philip & Garcia-Rodriguez, Abian & Murphy, Gavin, 2019. "Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    26. Stephen Rousseas, 1985. "A Markup Theory of Bank Loan Rates," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 135-144, September.
    27. Egan, Paul & Bergin, Adele, 2023. "The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 552-569.
    28. Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "The rise in house prices in Dublin: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 281-295, April.
    29. Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1991. "The Measurement and Determinants of Single‐Family House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 353-382, September.
    30. Thomas Conefrey & Gerard O'Reilly & Graeme Walsh, 2018. "Modelling External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Ireland," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 244(1), pages 56-63, May.
    31. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362.
    32. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2009. "Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(4), pages 371-392.
    33. Bernardina Algieri, 2013. "House Price Determinants: Fundamentals and Underlying Factors," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(2), pages 315-341, June.
    34. Honohan, Patrick & Donovan, Donal & Gorecki, Paul & Mottiar, Rafique, 2010. "The Irish Banking Crisis: Regulatory and Financial Stability Policy," MPRA Paper 24896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Rabah Arezki & Thorsten Beck & Robert Deyoung & John V. Duca & Prakash Loungani & Anthony Murphy, 2015. "Conference on Housing, Stability, and the Macroeconomy: International Perspectives," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 1-11, March.
    36. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    37. Kenny, Geoff, 1999. "Modelling the demand and supply sides of the housing market: evidence from Ireland1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 389-409, August.
    38. Paciorek, Andrew, 2013. "Supply constraints and housing market dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 11-26.
    39. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    40. Snyder, Tricia Coxwell & Vale, Sofia, 2022. "House prices and household credit in the Eurozone: A single monetary policy with dissonant transmission mechanisms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 243-256.
    41. McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "Credit conditions in a boom and bust property market: Insights for macro-prudential policy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 171-182.
    42. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "Wealth, Credit Conditions, and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59, pages 161-196, October.
    43. Stover, Mark Edward, 1986. "The price elasticity of the supply of single-family detached urban housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 331-340, November.
    44. Bergin, Adele & Garcia-Rodriguez, Abian, 2020. "Regional demographics and structural housing demand at a county Level," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS111.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McGinnity, Frances & Russell, Helen & Alamir, Anousheh, 2024. "17 years after the start of the global financial crisis (GFC), where are we now with credit and house prices in the Irish residential market?," Papers WP779, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Egan Paul & McQuinn Kieran & O’Toole Conor, 2024. "Credit and House Prices in the Irish Residential Market," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 59(5), pages 293-300.
    3. Egan, Paul & Bergin, Adele, 2023. "The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 552-569.
    4. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2008. "Estimating the Structural Demand for Irish Housing," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier, 2015. "Elasticidad precio de la oferta inmobiliaria en el Gran Santiago [Housing supply elasticity in Greater Santiago]," MPRA Paper 65012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Residential land prices for the Irish property market: An initial examination," Papers WP778, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Egan, Paul & Kenny, Eoin & McQuinn, Kieran, 2022. "Increasing future housing supply: What are the implications for the Irish economy," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Kumar Verma, Akhilesh & McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Assessing expectations of European house prices," Papers WP783, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Christopher J. Mayer & C. Tsuriel Somerville, 1996. "Unifying empirical and theoretical models of housing supply," Working Papers 96-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    12. Duffy, David & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2015. "Macroprudential Policy in a Recovering Market: Too Much too Soon?," Papers WP500, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Graeme O'Meara, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Reassessment," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 521-565.
    14. Anthony Owusu-Ansah, 2012. "Modelling the supply of new residential construction for local housing markets and estimation of housing supply price elasticities: The case of Aberdeen, UK," ERES eres2012_097, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    15. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Andrea Deghi & Mitsuru Katagiri & Mr. Sohaib Shahid & Nico Valckx, 2020. "Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 2020/011, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Kieran McQuinn & Teresa Monteiro & Conor O’Toole, 2021. "House Price Expectations, Labour Market Developments and the House Price to Rent Ratio: A User Cost of Capital Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 25-47, January.
    17. McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "The changing relationship between affordability and house prices: a cross-country examination," Papers WP560, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Oliver W. Lerbs, 2014. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 183-210, September.
    19. McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "Irish house prices: Déjà vu all over again?," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2009. "Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(4), pages 371-392.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; Monetary policy; Credit policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:65:y:2024:i:c:s1051137724000251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.