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Mortgage default, lending conditions and macroprudential policy: Loan-level evidence from UK buy-to-lets

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  • Kelly, Robert
  • O’Toole, Conor

Abstract

Using a unique sample of mortgage loans for the UK buy-to-let market, we estimate a “double trigger” default model which links originating debt service and loan-to-value ratios to ex post default. We investigate whether the relationship between these ratios and default can be informative in the calibration of macro-prudential limits. We find default increasing with originating loan-to-value and falling in the origination debt service ratio. A non-linear cubic spline model is used to identify threshold effects and we identify clear turning points in these relationships. This analysis could provide one input into supervisory considerations when setting limits in a macro prudential context. In addition, we investigate how multiple loan portfolios interact with these thresholds with strong evidence to support tighter macroprudential restrictions on loans for second and subsequent properties.

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  • Kelly, Robert & O’Toole, Conor, 2018. "Mortgage default, lending conditions and macroprudential policy: Loan-level evidence from UK buy-to-lets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 322-335.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:36:y:2018:i:c:p:322-335
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2018.03.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruben Tarne & Dirk Bezemer & Thomas Theobald, 2021. "The Effect of borrower-specific Loan-to-Value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility," IMK Working Paper 212-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Yosi Borochov & Boris A. Portnov, 2021. "Estimating Environmentally Adjusted Risks of Mortgage Arrears for Different Socioeconomic Groups of Borrowers," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 595-620.
    3. Luong, Thi Mai & Scheule, Harald, 2022. "Benchmarking forecast approaches for mortgage credit risk for forward periods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 750-767.
    4. Tarne, Ruben & Bezemer, Dirk & Theobald, Thomas, 2022. "The effect of borrower-specific loan-to-value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility: An agent-based analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Hung Xuan Do & Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2020. "Liquidity Constraints, Home Equity and Residential Mortgage Losses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 208-246, August.
    6. Alin Marius Andries & Anca Copaciu & Radu Popa & Razvan Vlahu, 2021. "Recourse and (strategic) mortgage defaults: Evidence from changes in housing market laws," Working Papers 727, DNB.
    7. Kgoroeadira, Reabetswe & Burke, Andrew & Di Pietro, Francesca & van Stel, André, 2023. "Determinants of firms’ default on unsecured loans in the P2P crowdfunding market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Jorge E. Galán & Matías Lamas, 2019. "Beyond the LTV ratio: new macroprudential lessons from Spain," Working Papers 1931, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroprudential; Credit risk; Mortgages; UK;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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