IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/oxecpp/v39y1987i3p443-57.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Off the Mark: Lessons for Exchange Rate Modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Boothe, Paul
  • Glassman, Debra

Abstract

Many explanations have been advanced for the apparent breakdown of monetary exchange-rate model s in the late 1970s. This paper shows that the initial empirical supp ort enjoyed by the models was an illusion created by the failure to a ccount for exchange-rate nonstationarity and the arbitrary imposition of dynamic restrictions. Furthermore, estimation of a more general, dynamic specification and cointegration tests both lead to rejection of a central proposition of the monetary approach, the long-run propo rtionality of the exchange rate to relative money supplies. Copyright 1987 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "Off the Mark: Lessons for Exchange Rate Modelling," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 443-457, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:39:y:1987:i:3:p:443-57
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0030-7653%28198709%292%3A39%3A3%3C443%3AOTMLFE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-6&origin=bc
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    2. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Multiple cointegration and structural models: applications to exchange rate determination," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011419, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
    4. van de Gucht, Linda M. & Dekimpe, Marnik G. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1996. "Persistence in foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 191-220, April.
    5. M. Faizul Islam & Mohammad S. Hasan, 2006. "The Monetary Model of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate Determination: A Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 129-145, August.
    6. Jae-Kwang Hwang, 2001. "Dynamic forecasting of monetary exchange rate models: Evidence from cointegration," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 51-64, February.
    7. Menzie David Chinn, 1991. "Beware of econometricians bearing estimates: Policy analysis in a “unit root” world," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 546-567.
    8. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Niall Hession & Edward J. O'Brien, 2006. "Some Empirical Observations on the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly," Trinity Economics Papers tep2006, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    9. Sonia Pangusión Espinosa., "undated". "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 128, FEDEA.
    10. Wu, Yih-Jiuan, 1998. "Exchange rate forecasting: an application of radial basis function neural networks," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000013540, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Husted, Steven & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The Asian currency crash: were badly driven fundamentals to blame?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 537-550.
    12. Nancy Matos Reyes & Robert McDonald & Jaime Rivera Camino, 2022. "La influencia del conflicto social y la licencia social para operar sobre el valor de la empresa," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 38(165), pages 406-423, November.
    13. Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
    14. Pasula, Kit, 1994. "Sterilization, ricardian equivalence and structural and reduced-form estimates of the offset coefficient," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 683-699.
    15. Chrystal, K. Alec & MacDonald, Ronald, 1995. "Exchange rates, financial innovation and divisia money: the sterling/dollar rate 1972-1990," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 493-513, August.
    16. Éric Girardin & Velayoudom Marimoutou, 1997. "Les fondamentaux permettent-ils d'améliorer la prévision du taux de change franc-dollar ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 661-672.
    17. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    18. Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 1995. "A numerical bayesian test for cointegration of AR processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 289-324.
    19. Roberts, Mark A. & McCausland, W. David, 1999. "Multiple international debt equilibria and irreversibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 179-188, April.
    20. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2001. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the DM/$ Exchange Rate: Temporal Instability and the Monetary Model," Working Papers 50, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:39:y:1987:i:3:p:443-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/oep .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.