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A Conceptual Framework for transition modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Haxeltine
  • Lorraine Whitmarsh
  • Noam Bergman
  • Jan Rotmans
  • Michel Schilperoord
  • Jonathan Kohler

Abstract

This paper presents a Conceptual Framework (CF) for analysing and simulating transition dynamics (or radical systemic innovation) that is broadly consistent with both empirical evidence and current theorising about transitions. The framework distinguishes between a dominant socio-technical regime and a number of socio-technical niches. The central feature of the framework is to describe how niches and regime interact to produce a transition dynamic involving either a transformation or a total overthrow of the dominant regime. We base the analysis on reviews of patterns observed in historical transitions, and provide a framework for analysing the processes involved in producing future 'sustainability transitions'.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Haxeltine & Lorraine Whitmarsh & Noam Bergman & Jan Rotmans & Michel Schilperoord & Jonathan Kohler, 2008. "A Conceptual Framework for transition modelling," International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1/2), pages 93-114.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijisde:v:3:y:2008:i:1/2:p:93-114
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Köhler, Jonathan & Turnheim, Bruno & Hodson, Mike, 2020. "Low carbon transitions pathways in mobility: Applying the MLP in a combined case study and simulation bridging analysis of passenger transport in the Netherlands," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Pieter Valkering & Gönenç Yücel & Ernst Gebetsroither-Geringer & Karin Markvica & Erika Meynaerts & Niki Frantzeskaki, 2017. "Accelerating Transition Dynamics in City Regions: A Qualitative Modeling Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Marletto, Gerardo, 2014. "Car and the city: Socio-technical transition pathways to 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 164-178.
    4. Smith, Adrian & Voß, Jan-Peter & Grin, John, 2010. "Innovation studies and sustainability transitions: The allure of the multi-level perspective and its challenges," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 435-448, May.
    5. C. Sillig & G. Marletto, 2022. "Global influence and national diversity in socio-technical transitions: a sectoral taxonomy," Working Paper CRENoS 202203, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    6. Filippo Celata & Venere Stefania sanna, "undated". "Community activism and sustainability: a multi-dimensional assessment," Working Papers 137/14, Sapienza University of Rome, Metodi e Modelli per l'Economia, il Territorio e la Finanza MEMOTEF.
    7. Anastasiia Moldavska & Torgeir Welo, 2018. "Testing and Verification of a New Corporate Sustainability Assessment Method for Manufacturing: A Multiple Case Research Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-40, November.
    8. G. Marletto, 2013. "Car and the city: Socio-technical pathways to 2030," Working Paper CRENoS 201306, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    9. Kemp-Benedict, Eric, 2014. "Shifting to a Green Economy: Lock-in, Path Dependence, and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 60175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Lee, Junmin & Kim, Keungoui & Kim, Jiyong & Hwang, Junseok, 2022. "The relationship between shared mobility and regulation in South Korea: A system dynamics approach from the socio-technical transitions perspective," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Michel Schilperoord & Jan Rotmans & Noam Bergman, 2008. "Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 283-301, December.
    12. Kyungeun Sung & Tim Cooper & Sarah Kettley, 2019. "Developing Interventions for Scaling Up UK Upcycling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-31, July.
    13. Karanasios, Konstantinos & Parker, Paul, 2018. "Tracking the transition to renewable electricity in remote indigenous communities in Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 169-181.
    14. Zolfagharian, Mohammadreza & Walrave, Bob & Raven, Rob & Romme, A. Georges L., 2019. "Studying transitions: Past, present, and future," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.
    15. Whitmarsh, Lorraine, 2012. "How useful is the Multi-Level Perspective for transport and sustainability research?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 483-487.
    16. Köhler, Jonathan & Whitmarsh, Lorraine & Nykvist, Björn & Schilperoord, Michel & Bergman, Noam & Haxeltine, Alex, 2009. "A transitions model for sustainable mobility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2985-2995, October.
    17. Oliver Krätzig & Valeria Franzkowiak & Nathalie Sick, 2019. "Multi-Level Perspective To Facilitate Sustainable Transitions — A Pathway For German Oems Towards Electric Vehicles," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(08), pages 1-20, December.
    18. Noam Bergman & Alex Haxeltine & Lorraine Whitmarsh & Jonathan Köhler & Michel Schilperoord & Jan Rotmans, 2008. "Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(3), pages 1-7.
    19. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    20. Marletto, Gerardo & Ortolan, Chiara, 2017. "Testing the integration of political discourses into the socio-technical map of urban mobility," Working Papers 17_2, SIET Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica.
    21. Marletto, Gerardo, 2019. "Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 221-234.

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