IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/jsd123/v12y2024i6p13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Some Bounds on the Sensitivity of Human Population Dynamics to the Effects of Greenhouse-Gas Reduction of Land Productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Jack K. Horner

Abstract

The 7 August 2019 IPCC special report on land and climate change predicts that the average global temperature will rise more than 1.5 C if human production of greenhouse gases (GHGs) continues at the 2019 rate to 2030, significantly compromising land productivity and the world food supply. Given a relationship between GHGs and land productivity, the World3 simulator can help to bound estimates of the sensitivity of human population dynamics to GHG reduction of land productivity. World3 projects that in the worst case the peak size of the human population could be reduced by 4% - 37% by GHG reduction of land productivity, compared to World3’s “benchmark scenarios”, during calendar years 1900-2100. In particular, World3’s “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario implies that in the worst case the peak size of the human population would be reduced by ~20% by reduction of land productivity. This BAU-specific result is consistent, to within a factor of two, with GHG/wheat-productivity relations described in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack K. Horner, 2024. "Some Bounds on the Sensitivity of Human Population Dynamics to the Effects of Greenhouse-Gas Reduction of Land Productivity," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(6), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:jsd123:v:12:y:2024:i:6:p:13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jsd/article/download/0/0/41402/42885
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jsd/article/view/0/41402
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bing Liu & Senthold Asseng & Christoph Müller & Frank Ewert & Joshua Elliott & David B. Lobell & Pierre Martre & Alex C. Ruane & Daniel Wallach & James W. Jones & Cynthia Rosenzweig & Pramod K. Aggarw, 2016. "Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1130-1136, December.
    2. S. Asseng & F. Ewert & P. Martre & R. P. Rötter & D. B. Lobell & D. Cammarano & B. A. Kimball & M. J. Ottman & G. W. Wall & J. W. White & M. P. Reynolds & P. D. Alderman & P. V. V. Prasad & P. K. Agga, 2015. "Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 143-147, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hao, Shirui & Ryu, Dongryeol & Western, Andrew & Perry, Eileen & Bogena, Heye & Franssen, Harrie Jan Hendricks, 2021. "Performance of a wheat yield prediction model and factors influencing the performance: A review and meta-analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    2. Hao, Shirui & Ryu, Dongryeol & Western, Andrew W & Perry, Eileen & Bogena, Heye & Franssen, Harrie Jan Hendricks, 2024. "Global sensitivity analysis of APSIM-wheat yield predictions to model parameters and inputs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 487(C).
    3. Chen, Xiaoguang & Tian, Guoping, 2017. "High Daytime and Nighttime Temperatures Exert Large and Opposing Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in China," EfD Discussion Paper 17-8, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    4. Lu, Ran & Xu, Wen & Zeng, Hongjun & Zhou, Xiangjing, 2023. "Volatility connectedness among the Indian equity and major commodity markets under the COVID-19 scenario," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1465-1481.
    5. Xiaoguang Chen & Madhu Khanna & Lu Yang, 2022. "The impacts of temperature on Chinese food processing firms," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 256-279, April.
    6. Chakravarty, Shourish & Villoria, Nelson B., 2020. "Estimating the spatially heterogeneous elasticities of land supply to U.S. crop agriculture," Conference papers 333156, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Sponagel, Christian & Bendel, Daniela & Angenendt, Elisabeth & Weber, Tobias Karl David & Gayler, Sebastian & Streck, Thilo & Bahrs, Enno, 2022. "Integrated assessment of regional approaches for biodiversity offsetting in urban-rural areas – A future based case study from Germany using arable land as an example," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    9. repec:zib:zbppsc:v:1:y:2021:i:1:p:4-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Haidong Zhao & Lina Zhang & M. B. Kirkham & Stephen M. Welch & John W. Nielsen-Gammon & Guihua Bai & Jiebo Luo & Daniel A. Andresen & Charles W. Rice & Nenghan Wan & Romulo P. Lollato & Dianfeng Zheng, 2022. "U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    11. Dilshad Ahmad & Malika Kanwal & Muhammad Afzal, 2023. "Climate change effects on riverbank erosion Bait community flood-prone area of Punjab, Pakistan: an application of livelihood vulnerability index," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 9387-9415, September.
    12. Zihao Wang & Wenxi Wang & Xiaoming Xie & Yongfa Wang & Zhengzhao Yang & Huiru Peng & Mingming Xin & Yingyin Yao & Zhaorong Hu & Jie Liu & Zhenqi Su & Chaojie Xie & Baoyun Li & Zhongfu Ni & Qixin Sun &, 2022. "Dispersed emergence and protracted domestication of polyploid wheat uncovered by mosaic ancestral haploblock inference," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Liu, Yujie & Zhang, Jie & Qin, Ya, 2020. "How global warming alters future maize yield and water use efficiency in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    14. Tan, Lili & Feng, Puyu & Li, Baoguo & Huang, Feng & Liu, De Li & Ren, Pinpin & Liu, Haipeng & Srinivasan, Raghavan & Chen, Yong, 2022. "Climate change impacts on crop water productivity and net groundwater use under a double-cropping system with intensive irrigation in the Haihe River Basin, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    15. Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano & Tim R. McVicar & Diego G. Miralles & Yuting Yang & Miquel Tomas‐Burguera, 2020. "Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    16. Xiang Chen & lvzhou Liu & Hongmei Cai & Baoqiang Zheng & Jincai Li, 2024. "Effects of spring low-temperature stress on winter wheat seed-setting characteristics of spike," Plant, Soil and Environment, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 70(2), pages 84-92.
    17. Markhof,Yannick Valentin & Ponzini,Giulia & Wollburg,Philip Randolph, 2022. "Measuring Disaster Crop Production Losses Using Survey Microdata : Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9968, The World Bank.
    18. Kang, Xiaoyu & Qi, Junyu & Li, Sheng & Meng, Fan-Rui, 2022. "A watershed-scale assessment of climate change impacts on crop yields in Atlantic Canada," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    19. Jie Cao & Zhen Qin & Guangxian Cui & Zhaoyan Chen & Xuejiao Cheng & Huiru Peng & Yingyin Yao & Zhaorong Hu & Weilong Guo & Zhongfu Ni & Qixin Sun & Mingming Xin, 2024. "Natural variation of STKc_GSK3 kinase TaSG-D1 contributes to heat stress tolerance in Indian dwarf wheat," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    20. Ye, Tianyang & Ma, Jifeng & Zhang, Pei & Shan, Song & Liu, Leilei & Tang, Liang & Cao, Weixing & Liu, Bing & Zhu, Yan, 2022. "Interaction effects of irrigation and nitrogen on the coordination between crop water productivity and nitrogen use efficiency in wheat production on the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    21. Gaupp, Franziska & Hall, Jim & Mitchell, Dann & Dadson, Simon, 2019. "Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 34-45.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:jsd123:v:12:y:2024:i:6:p:13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.