IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed009/406.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Futures Markets, Oil Prices, and the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account

Author

Listed:
  • Elif C. Arbatli

    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract

oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Elif C. Arbatli, 2009. "Futures Markets, Oil Prices, and the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," 2009 Meeting Papers 406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed009:406
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2009/paper_406.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul R. Bergin & Steven M. Sheffrin, 2017. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and Present Value Models of the Current Account," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 10, pages 287-316, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
    3. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
    4. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September.
    5. John Campbell & Angus Deaton, 1989. "Why is Consumption So Smooth?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 357-373.
    6. Elif Arbatli, 2008. "Futures Markets, Oil Prices and the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," Staff Working Papers 08-48, Bank of Canada.
    7. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
    8. Hoffman, Mathias, 2001. "The Relative Dynamics of Investment and the Current Account in the G7-Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 148-163, May.
    9. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    10. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2000. "The relative dynamics of investment and the current account in the G-7 economies," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0005, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    11. Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al, 1995. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 361-375, March.
    12. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 107-128, January.
    13. Kasa, Kenneth, 2003. "Testing present value models of the current account: a cautionary note," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 557-569, August.
    14. Ferdaus Hossain, 1999. "Transitory and permanent disturbances and the current account: an empirical analysis in the intertemporal framework," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 965-974.
    15. Beck, Nathaniel & Katz, Jonathan N., 1995. "What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 634-647, September.
    16. Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. C. John McDermott, 1998. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 1998/177, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    18. Christopher D. Carroll & Andrew A. Samwick, 1998. "How Important Is Precautionary Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 410-419, August.
    19. Mathias Hoffmann, 2003. "International macroeconomic fluctuations and the current account," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 401-420, May.
    20. Ahmed, Shaghil, 1986. "Temporary and permanent government spending in an open economy: Some evidence for the United Kingdom," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 197-224, March.
    21. French, Kenneth R, 1986. "Detecting Spot Price Forecasts in Futures Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 39-54, April.
    22. Paul Cashin & C. McDermott, 2002. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 219-235, July.
    23. John C. Bluedorn, 2005. "Hurricanes: Intertemporal Trade and Capital Shocks," Economics Papers 2005-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    24. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    25. Quah, Danny, 1990. "Permanent and Transitory Movements in Labor Income: An Explanation for "Excess Smoothness" in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 449-475, June.
    26. Mercereau, Benoît & Miniane, Jacques Alain, 2008. "Should We Trust the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account?," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    27. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
    28. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    29. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    30. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    31. Gruber, Joseph W., 2004. "A present value test of habits and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1495-1507, October.
    32. Gary Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2004. "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures," NBER Working Papers 10595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Sergey V. Chernenko, 2004. "The information content of forward and futures prices: market expectations and the price of risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 808, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Mercereau, Benoît & Miniane, Jacques Alain, 2008. "Should We Trust the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-36.
    35. Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(2), pages 305-333, May.
    36. Iscan, Talan B., 2000. "The terms of trade, productivity growth and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 587-611, June.
    37. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    38. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    39. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    40. Mathias Hoffmann, 2003. "International macroeconomic fluctuations and the current account," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 401-420, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2013. "Oil Exporters’ Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 120-131.
    2. Elif Arbatli, 2008. "Futures Markets, Oil Prices and the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," Staff Working Papers 08-48, Bank of Canada.
    3. Ashima Goyal & Shruti Tripathi, 2012. "Regulations and price discovery: oil spot and futures markets," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-016, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. Olanubi, Sijuola Orioye, 2023. "Foreign exchange intervention and the Dutch disease under incomplete information," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2012. "What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on the External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1062-1092, April.
    2. John C. Bluedorn, 2005. "Hurricanes: Intertemporal Trade and Capital Shocks," Economics Papers 2005-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Kano, Takashi, 2008. "A structural VAR approach to the intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 757-779, September.
    4. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.
    5. Holanda Oliveira, Lucio Hellery & Carrasco Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique, 2015. "The Dynamics of the Brazilian Current Account with Rule of Thumb Consumers," MPRA Paper 66079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2013. "What drives China's current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 856-883.
    7. Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January.
    8. Kasa, Kenneth, 2003. "Testing present value models of the current account: a cautionary note," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 557-569, August.
    9. Mercereau, Benoît & Miniane, Jacques Alain, 2008. "Should We Trust the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account?," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gavilan, Angel, 2011. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 205-228, February.
    11. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Esteve, Vicente, 2021. "The Current Account Of The Spanish Economy, 1850-2016: Was It Optimal?," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 329-354, September.
    12. Seema Wati Narayan, 2020. "Asian Current Account Balances And Spillovers From A Foreign Country, A Region And The United States," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 23(1), pages 1-24, April.
    13. Jonathan Kearns, 2007. "Commodity Currencies: Why Are Exchange Rate Futures Biased if Commodity Futures Are Not?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(260), pages 60-73, March.
    14. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    15. Shibata, Akihisa & Shintani, Mototsugu & Tsuruga, Takayuki, 2019. "Current account dynamics under information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 153-176.
    16. Kunhong Kim & Viv B Hall & Robert A Buckle, 2001. "New Zealand's Current Account Deficit: Analysis based on the Intertemporal Optimisation Approach," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    17. Gruber, Joseph W., 2004. "A present value test of habits and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1495-1507, October.
    18. Alexander Bilson Darku, 2010. "Consumption smoothing, capital controls and the current account in Ghana," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(20), pages 2601-2616.
    19. Joseph W. Gruber, 2002. "Productivity shocks, habits, and the current account," International Finance Discussion Papers 733, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Issler, João Victor & Rodrigues, Claudia & Burjack, Rafael, 2014. "Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 310-335.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed009:406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.