IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v30y2008i5p2420-2440.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk premium in the UK natural gas forward market

Author

Listed:
  • Hobæk Haff, Ingrid
  • Lindqvist, Ola
  • Løland, Anders

Abstract

This report investigates the UK natural gas market, and tests whether it is a fair-game efficient forward market, using forward contracts ranging from one to five months time to delivery. The forward and spot price series are separately non-stationary, but cointegrated. Furthermore, the forward prices are biased predictors of both the future spot and the 1-month-ahead forward price. The risk premium on the forward prices is positive, as opposed to the US gas market, where the risk premium was found to be negative in similar work. Moreover, the analysis reveals that the storage model is an incomplete model for the relationship between the spot and forward prices. However, storage has a clear effect on this relationship, an effect that appears to be non-linear.

Suggested Citation

  • Hobæk Haff, Ingrid & Lindqvist, Ola & Løland, Anders, 2008. "Risk premium in the UK natural gas forward market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2420-2440, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:2420-2440
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140-9883(07)00163-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Rutledge, Emilie, 2007. "Oil and gas markets in the UK: Evidence from a cointegrating approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 329-347, March.
    2. French, Kenneth R, 1986. "Detecting Spot Price Forecasts in Futures Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 39-54, April.
    3. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    5. Mu, Xiaoyi, 2007. "Weather, storage, and natural gas price dynamics: Fundamentals and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 46-63, January.
    6. Haushalter, G. David & Heron, Randall A. & Lie, Erik, 2002. "Price uncertainty and corporate value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 271-286, July.
    7. Cartea, Álvaro & Williams, Thomas, 2008. "UK gas markets: The market price of risk and applications to multiple interruptible supply contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 829-846, May.
    8. Modjtahedi, Bagher & Movassagh, Nahid, 2005. "Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 617-637, July.
    9. Buchanan, W. K. & Hodges, P. & Theis, J., 2001. "Which way the natural gas price: an attempt to predict the direction of natural gas spot price movements using trader positions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 279-293, May.
    10. Chiou Wei, Song Zan & Zhu, Zhen, 2006. "Commodity convenience yield and risk premium determination: The case of the U.S. natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 523-534, July.
    11. Ng, Victor K. & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1996. "Price dynamics in refined petroleum spot and futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 359-388, February.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1877-1900 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Williams, Jeffrey C., 2001. "Commodity futures and options," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 745-816, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Kremser & Margarethe Rammerstorfer, 2017. "Predictive Performance and Bias: Evidence from Natural Gas Markets," Journal of Management and Sustainability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 7(2), pages 1-26, June.
    2. Beatriz Martínez, Beatriz Martínez & Hipòlit Torró, Hipòlit Torró, 2016. "Anatomy of Risk Premium in UK Natural Gas Futures," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 232212, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Egil Ferkingstad & Anders L{o}land & Mathilde Wilhelmsen, 2011. "Causal modeling and inference for electricity markets," Papers 1110.5429, arXiv.org.
    4. Chih-Chen Hsu & An-Sing Chen & Shih-Kuei Lin & Ting-Fu Chen, 2017. "The affine styled-facts price dynamics for the natural gas: evidence from daily returns and option prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 819-848, April.
    5. Shao, Chengwu & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Colwell, David B., 2015. "A multi-factor model with time-varying and seasonal risk premiums for the natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 207-214.
    6. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Analysis of risk premium in UK natural gas futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 621-636.
    7. Devlin, Joseph & Li, Kang & Higgins, Paraic & Foley, Aoife, 2017. "Gas generation and wind power: A review of unlikely allies in the United Kingdom and Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 757-768.
    8. Stronzik, Marcus & Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Neumann, Anne, 2009. "Does the European natural gas market pass the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage? Indirect tests for three major trading points," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5432-5439, December.
    9. Ferkingstad, Egil & Løland, Anders & Wilhelmsen, Mathilde, 2011. "Causal modeling and inference for electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 404-412, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stronzik, Marcus & Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Neumann, Anne, 2009. "Does the European natural gas market pass the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage? Indirect tests for three major trading points," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5432-5439, December.
    2. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2023. "Theory of storage implications in the European natural gas market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    3. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Analysis of risk premium in UK natural gas futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 621-636.
    4. Modjtahedi, Bagher & Movassagh, Nahid, 2005. "Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 617-637, July.
    5. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Brooks, Chris & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2651-2663.
    6. Marcus Stronzik & Margarethe Rammerstorfer & Anne Neumann, 2008. "Theory of Storage: An Empirical Assessment of the European Natural Gas Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 821, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. A. Mazaheri, 1999. "Convenience yield, mean reverting prices, and long memory in the petroleum market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 31-50.
    8. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2015. "European natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-168.
    9. George Daskalakis, Lazaros Symeonidis, Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    10. van Goor, Harm & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "Modeling natural gas price volatility: The case of the UK gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 126-134.
    11. Furió, Dolores & Torró, Hipòlit, 2020. "Optimal hedging under biased energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Shao, Chengwu & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Colwell, David B., 2015. "A multi-factor model with time-varying and seasonal risk premiums for the natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 207-214.
    13. Brajesh Kumar, 2016. "Asymmetric Volatility of Net Convenience Yield: Evidence from Indian Commodity Futures Markets," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 3205752, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    14. Beatriz Martínez & Hipòlit Torró, 2016. "Anatomy of Risk Premium in UK Natural Gas Futures," Working Papers 2016.06, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    15. Hulshof, Daan & van der Maat, Jan-Pieter & Mulder, Machiel, 2016. "Market fundamentals, competition and natural-gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 480-491.
    16. Getu Hailu & Alex Maynard & Alfons Weersink, 2015. "Empirical analysis of corn and soybean basis in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(51), pages 5491-5509, November.
    17. Ioannis C. Moutzouris & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2019. "The formation of forward freight agreement rates in dry bulk shipping: Spot rates, risk premia, and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1008-1031, August.
    18. Stronzik, Marcus & Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Neumann, Anne, 2008. "Wettbewerb im Markt für Erdgasspeicher," WIK Discussion Papers 305, WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste GmbH.
    19. Mihaela NICOLAU & Giulio PALOMBA & Ilaria TRAINI, 2013. "Are Futures Prices Influenced by Spot;Prices or Vice-versa? An Analysis of Crude;Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Markets," Working Papers 394, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    20. Yoon, Byung-Sam & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2005. "Can Multiyear Rollover Hedging Increase Mean Returns?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 65-78, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:2420-2440. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.