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Convenience yields and risk premiums in the EU-ETS - Evidence from the Kyoto commitment period

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  • Stefan Trück
  • Rafal Weron

Abstract

We examine convenience yields in the EU-wide CO2 emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) during the first Kyoto commitment period (2008-2012). We find that the market has changed from initial backwardation to contango with significantly negative convenience yields in futures contracts. We further examine the impact of interest rate levels in the Eurozone, the increasing level of surplus allowances and banking as well as returns, variance or skewness in the EU-ETS spot market. Our findings suggest that the drop in risk-free rates during and after the financial crisis has impacted on the deviation from the cost-of-carry relationship for Kyoto commitment emission allowances (EUA) futures contracts. Our results also illustrate a negative relationship between convenience yields and the increasing level of inventory during the first Kyoto commitment period providing an explanation for the high negative convenience yields during Phase II. Finally, we find that market participants are willing to pay an additional risk premium in the futures market for a hedge against increased volatility in EUA prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Trück & Rafal Weron, 2015. "Convenience yields and risk premiums in the EU-ETS - Evidence from the Kyoto commitment period," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1503
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    Cited by:

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    2. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Hedging spark spread risk with futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 731-746.
    3. Song, Yazhi & Liu, Tiansen & Liang, Dapeng & Li, Yin & Song, Xiaoqiu, 2019. "A Fuzzy Stochastic Model for Carbon Price Prediction Under the Effect of Demand-related Policy in China's Carbon Market," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 253-265.
    4. Fan, Ying & Jia, Jun-Jun & Wang, Xin & Xu, Jin-Hua, 2017. "What policy adjustments in the EU ETS truly affected the carbon prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 145-164.
    5. Quemin, Simon & Trotignon, Raphaël, 2021. "Emissions trading with rolling horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Sebastian Klaudiusz Tomczak & Anna Skowrońska-Szmer & Jan Jakub Szczygielski, 2021. "Is It Possible to Make Money on Investing in Companies Manufacturing Solar Components? A Panel Data Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    7. Fianu, Emmanuel Senyo & Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Grossi, Luigi, 2022. "Modeling risk contagion in the Italian zonal electricity market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 656-679.
    8. Michele Azzone & Roberto Baviera & Pietro Manzoni, 2024. "The puzzle of Carbon Allowance spread," Papers 2405.12982, arXiv.org.
    9. Sebastian Klaudiusz Tomczak & Anna Skowrońska-Szmer & Jan Jakub Szczygielski, 2020. "Is Investing in Companies Manufacturing Solar Components a Lucrative Business? A Decision Tree Based Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-27, January.
    10. Feng, Ling & Wang, Jieyu, 2023. "Random sources correlations and carbon futures pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Simon Quemin & Raphael Trotignon, 2018. "Competitive Permit Storage and Market Design: An Application to the EU-ETS," Working Papers 2018.19, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    12. Sebastian Klaudiusz Tomczak, 2019. "Comparison of the Financial Standing of Companies Generating Electricity from Renewable Sources and Fossil Fuels: A New Hybrid Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-20, October.
    13. Palao, Fernando & Pardo, Ángel, 2021. "The inconvenience yield of carbon futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    14. Tietjen, Oliver & Lessmann, Kai & Pahle, Michael, 2021. "Hedging and temporal permit issuances in cap-and-trade programs: The Market Stability Reserve under risk aversion," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    15. Batten, Jonathan A. & Maddox, Grace E. & Young, Martin R., 2021. "Does weather, or energy prices, affect carbon prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    16. Reckling, Dennis, 2016. "Variance risk premia in CO2 markets: A political perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 345-354.
    17. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 Emissions Trading; Commodity Markets; Spot and Futures Prices; Convenience Yields;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy

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