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Russian Science and Technology Foresight – 2030: Key Features and First Results

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Sokolov

    (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Alexander Chulok

    (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper reviews national features in the general evolution of science and technology (S&T) foresight over the last decade. Foresight has made a transition from thematic papers and policy briefs to a complex set of methods integrated in the framework of S&T and innovation policy making. Foresight also addresses broad social and economic issues along with conventional S&T problems. It focuses often on interdisciplinary fields and cross-sector problems. It has witnessed the introduction of such new methods as weak signals and wild cards, and it has benefited from the integration of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Russian S&T foresight follows global trends. It has given support for revisions of the national S&T priorities and critical technologies. In 2007-2010, two cycles of the National S&T Foresight (initiated by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation) were completed. They resulted in the creation of frameworks and expert networks for future studies. Foresight culture has been finding deeper roots in Russia. The paper addresses mainly the key features of the third (ongoing) cycle of the national S&T Foresight (2011) against the background of the first two cycles and the international trends. This cycle represents a wider coverage of issues (macroeconomic scenarios, trends in basic research, S&T resources, future demand for skills, and global drivers of S&T developments); more complicated methodologies (bibliometric analysis, expert panels, surveys, roadmapping, and quantitative models); and a combination of “market pull” and “technology push” approaches toward estimating future developments. This cycle is building a wider network of experts at new Foresight centres at various Russian research universities. It concludes with a discussion of some barriers still to be overcome in Foresight studies: integration of sectoral visions, deeper analyses of some scientific disciplines, stronger integration into policy making, and spreading among business and research communities.Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Sokolov & Alexander Chulok, 2012. "Russian Science and Technology Foresight – 2030: Key Features and First Results," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 12-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:6:y:2012:i:1:p:12-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Sokolov, 2009. "Future of S&T: Delphi Survey Results," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 3(3), pages 40-58.
    2. Alexander Sokolov, 2007. "Method of Critical Technologies," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 1(4), pages 64-74.
    3. Alexander Apokin & Dmitry Belousov, 2009. "Scenarios of the Global and Russian Economic Development as a Basis for S&T Forecasting," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 3(3), pages 12-29.
    4. Leonid Gokhberg & Tatyana Kuznetsova, 2011. "Strategy 2020: New Outlines of Russian Innovation Policy," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 5(4), pages 8-30.
    5. Alexey Doub & Sergey Shashnov, 2007. "Innovation Priorities for Power Engineering: A Case of Sectoral Foresight," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 1(3), pages 4-11.
    6. Alexander Chulok, 2009. "Forecast of S&T Development Prospects of the Key Economy Sectors in Russia: Future Tasks," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 3(3), pages 30-36.
    7. Sergey Shashnov, 2007. "Foresight in the Republic of Bashkortostan," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 16-24.
    8. Cristiano Cagnin & Effie Amanatidou & Michael Keenan, 2012. "Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 140-152, March.
    9. Konstantin Vishnevsky & Oleg Karasev, 2010. "Identifying the Future of New Materials with the Use of Foresight Methods," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 4(2), pages 58-67.
    10. Victor van Rij, 2012. "New Emerging Issues and Wild Cards as Future Shakers and Shapers," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 60-73.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Giglavy & Alexander Sokolov & Gulnara Abdrakhmanova & Alexander Chulok & Vasily Burov, 2013. "Long-Term Trends in the ICT Sector," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 7(3), pages 6-24.
    2. Ilya Kaminskiy & Ludmila Ogorodova & Maxim Patrushev & Alexander Chulok, 2013. "Medicine of the Future: Opportunities for Breakthrough through the Prism of Technology Foresight," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 14-27.
    3. Elena Abramova & Alexander Apokin & Dmitry Belousov & Alexander Frolov & Kirill Mikhailenko & Elena Penukhina, 2013. "Future of Russia: Macroeconomic Scenarios in the Global Context," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 6-25.
    4. Anna Grebenyuk & Sergey Shashnov & Alexander Sokolov, 2016. "S&T Priority Setting. International Practices and the Case of Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 67/STI/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Andrzej Magruk, 2020. "Uncertainties, Knowledge, and Futures in Foresight Studies — A Case of the Industry 4.0," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 14(4), pages 20-33.
    6. Alexey Kindras & Dirk Meissner & Konstantin Vishnevskiy, 2019. "Regional Foresight for Bridging National Science, Technology, and Innovation with Company Innovation: Experiences from Russia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(4), pages 1319-1340, December.
    7. Aleskerov, F. & Dutta, S. & Egorov, D. & Tkachev, D., 2024. "Networks under deep uncertainty concerning food security," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 12-29.
    8. Sergey Kortov & Dmitry Shulgin & Dmitrii Tolmachev & Anastassiya Yegarmina, 2017. "Technology Trends Analysis Using Patent Landscaping," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 935-947.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    innovation system; foresight; critical technologies; long-term forecast; priority areas; roadmaps; S&T priority areas; long-term forecasting; national innovation system; innovation system;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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