IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hig/fsight/v7y2013i3p6-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-Term Trends in the ICT Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Giglavy

    (Moscow Lycee no 1533 (Information Technologies))

  • Alexander Sokolov

    (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics)

  • Gulnara Abdrakhmanova

    (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics)

  • Alexander Chulok

    (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics)

  • Vasily Burov

    (WikiVote!)

Abstract

Information and communication technologies (ICT) radically transform many areas of human activity thus attracting great attention of researchers. However, the dynamics of ICT development depends on the global challenges and broader trends that define long-term S&T priorities. What factors that will influence the future of the ICT industry? What technological solutions will determine its characteristics in the next 15–20 years? These and similar questions were considered by the HSE ISSEK specialists in co-operation with the colleagues from other research entities while investigating trends in S&T at the global and national levels. The experts have analyzed socio-economic and S&T challenges affecting the ICT sector, advanced R&D fields, markets for innovative products and services, estimated the «windows of opportunities» for Russia. As a result, the strategic directions of blueprint research which ensure the basis for the creation of innovative products and new markets for the medium- and long-term (beyond 2020) perspective. Foresight results have been validated by the representatives of leading companies, research centers, universities and international organizations. Among the solutions expected in the period up to 2030 are the prototypes of systems implementing the new computing principles and multi-language software for extraction and formalization of knowledge, technologies dealing with «big data», new analytical tools (personal analytic systems, means of the real time data processing, mobile analytics, etc.). Markets for novel technology solutions are expected to be rapidly growing in healthcare, energy, engineering and transport, as well as in personal usage of ICT products and services. The study allows to conclude that in the medium to long term, the ICT sector will retain a high growth dynamic and will have transformative impact on virtually all areas of human life. The life cycle of technologies, related products and services will shorten. In this context, R&D development plays a crucial role for keeping up with competitors. Russian science has a certain potential in much of the considered areas, although one can hardly perceive Russia as gaining global leadership. A breakthrough level of research is observed, for example, in telecommunication technologies (communication, networking and content distribution). Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Giglavy & Alexander Sokolov & Gulnara Abdrakhmanova & Alexander Chulok & Vasily Burov, 2013. "Long-Term Trends in the ICT Sector," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 7(3), pages 6-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:7:y:2013:i:3:p:6-24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2014/10/21/1279062386/1-Sokolov-6-24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ozcan Saritas, 2013. "Human Enhancement Technologies: Future Outlook and Challenges," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 6-13.
    2. repec:hig:journl:v:6:y:2012:i:1:p:12-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Cagnin, Cristiano & Havas, Attila & Saritas, Ozcan, 2013. "Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 379-385.
    4. Ilya Kaminskiy & Ludmila Ogorodova & Maxim Patrushev & Alexander Chulok, 2013. "Medicine of the Future: Opportunities for Breakthrough through the Prism of Technology Foresight," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 14-27.
    5. Anna Kachkaeva & Ilya Kiriya, 2012. "Long-Term Trends in the Mass Communication Industry," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 6(4), pages 6-18.
    6. Alexander Sokolov & Alexander Chulok, 2012. "Russian Science and Technology Foresight – 2030: Key Features and First Results," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 12-25.
    7. Dirk Meissner & Alexander Sokolov, 2013. "Foresight and science, technology and innovation indicators," Chapters, in: Fred Gault (ed.), Handbook of Innovation Indicators and Measurement, chapter 16, pages 381-402, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Dirk Meissner & Leonid Gokhberg & Alexander Sokolov (ed.), 2013. "Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-31827-6, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taisa Kasimova & Sabina Magomedova & Zaur Ismikhanov, 2021. "Econometric Models for Russia’s GDP Analysis and Forecasting in the Industrial Section of the Economy in Conditions of Its Digital Transformation," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(4), pages 1694-1716, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexey Kindras & Dirk Meissner & Konstantin Vishnevskiy, 2019. "Regional Foresight for Bridging National Science, Technology, and Innovation with Company Innovation: Experiences from Russia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(4), pages 1319-1340, December.
    2. Yuri Dekhtyaruk & Igor Karyshev & Maria Korableva & Natalia Velikanova & Anastasia Edelkina & Oleg Karasev & Marina Klubova & Anna Bogomolova & Natalia Dyshkant, 2014. "Foresight in Civil Shipbuilding - 2030," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 30-45.
      • Yuri Dekhtyaruk & Igor Karyshev & Maria Korableva & Natalia Velikanova & Anastasia Edelkina & Oleg Karasev & Marina Klubova & Anna Bogomolova & Natalia Dyshkant, 2014. "Foresight in civil shipbuilding — 2030," Foresight-Russia Форсайт, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 8(2 (eng)), pages 30-45.
    3. Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani & Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas & Payam Khazaelpour & Fausto Cavallaro, 2018. "The Multi-Aspect Criterion in the PMADM Outline and Its Possible Application to Sustainability Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, November.
    4. Maxim A. Afanasyev & Mario Cervantes & Dirk Meissner, 2014. "Towards FET Concept: Pathway To Evaluation Of Foresight Effectiveness, Efficiency And Validity," HSE Working papers WP BRP 31/STI/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Alexander Sokolov & Alexander Chulok & Vladimir Mesropyan, 2013. "Long-Term Science and Technology Policy – Russian priorities for 2030," HSE Working papers WP BRP 19/STI/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Carayannis, Elias & Grebeniuk, Anna & Meissner, Dirk, 2016. "Smart roadmapping for STI policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 109-116.
    7. Ozcan Saritas & Derrick Ababio Anim, 2017. "The Last and Next 10 Years of Foresight," HSE Working papers WP BRP 77/STI/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. Anna Grebenyuk & Sergey Shashnov & Alexander Sokolov, 2016. "S&T Priority Setting. International Practices and the Case of Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 67/STI/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    9. Elias G. Carayannis & Dirk Meissner & Anastasia Edelkina, 2017. "Targeted innovation policy and practice intelligence (TIP2E): concepts and implications for theory, policy and practice," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 460-484, June.
    10. Pavel Bakhtin & Ozcan Saritas & Alexander Chulok & Ilya Kuzminov & Anton Timofeev, 2017. "Trend monitoring for linking science and strategy," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 2059-2075, June.
    11. Natalia A. Shmatko & Yurij L. Katchanov, 2015. "Gatekeepers in Russian High-Tech: A Study of Heads of Leading Research Centers," HSE Working papers WP BRP 39/STI/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    12. Ozcan Saritas & Dirk Meissner & Alexander Sokolov, 2019. "A Transition Management Roadmap for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs)," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(3), pages 1183-1203, September.
    13. Andrzej Magruk, 2021. "Analysis of Uncertainties and Levels of Foreknowledge in Relation to Major Features of Emerging Technologies—The Context of Foresight Research for the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-16, September.
    14. Vishnevskiy, Konstantin & Karasev, Oleg & Meissner, Dirk, 2016. "Integrated roadmaps for strategic management and planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 153-166.
    15. L. Kapranova D. & Л. Капранова Д., 2018. "Цифровая экономика в России: состояние и перспективы развития // The Digital Economy in Russia: Its State and Prospects of Development," Экономика. Налоги. Право // Economics, taxes & law, ФГОБУ "Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации" // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 11(2), pages 58-69.
    16. Elizabeth Gibson & Tugrul Daim & Edwin Garces & Marina Dabic, 2018. "Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 6-24.
    17. Konstantin Fursov & Ian Miles, 2013. "Framing Emerging Nanotechnologies: Steps Towards A Forward-Looking Analysis Of Skills," HSE Working papers WP BRP 15/STI/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    18. Takey, Silvia Mayumi & Carvalho, Marly M., 2016. "Fuzzy front end of systemic innovations: A conceptual framework based on a systematic literature review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 97-109.
    19. Valentina Poliakova, 2013. "The social legitimation of biomedical Technologies in Russia: communication challenges for science and society," HSE Working papers WP BRP 21/STI/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    20. Joanicjusz Nazarko & Ewa Chodakowska & Łukasz Nazarko, 2022. "Evaluating the Transition of the European Union Member States towards a Circular Economy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-24, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-term forecast; priority areas; trends; global challenges; S&T capacities; information and communication technologies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:7:y:2013:i:3:p:6-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nataliya Gavrilicheva or Mikhail Salazkin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hsecoru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.