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Medicine of the Future: Opportunities for Breakthrough through the Prism of Technology Foresight

Author

Listed:
  • Ilya Kaminskiy

    (Siberian State Medical University)

  • Ludmila Ogorodova

    (RF State Duma)

  • Maxim Patrushev

    (Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University)

  • Alexander Chulok

    (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

Many countries consider healthcare a priority area of development. Its future milestones lie in two key dimensions: social — combating common and complex diseases, and economic — establishing S&T basis that will provide leadership, or at least a decent niche in the global markets. The paper provides the results of a study conducted by the HSE in cooperation with the member organizations of technology platform “Medicine of the Future”. It supposes and empirically tests the feasibility of matching challenges and responses aimed at selecting the priorities of S&T development. The study identified underlying trends and S&T areas that will shape the medium and long term prospects of medicine, as well as backlogs allowing gaining strong global market positions. The possible technology responses for the most significant healthcare challenges for Russia are identified, and a priority research agenda is proposed. The authors conclude that Russia lacks breakthrough S&T capacities in the majority of promising medical areas. Meanwhile, domestic advances in some fields still offer the chance for a breakthrough and gaining solid positions on global markets as well as for integration in the value chain. Time to catch up with these opportunities however is running out: most of them are estimated to be available only for the next 5-7 years, so urgent actions are required. These results have been widely discussed in the framework of a range of communication platforms, including that of expert groups preparing the draft state-run programme «Development of Science and Technology for the period up to 2020», and working committees of the technology platform «Medicine of the Future», which are presented at Russian and international conferences. Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilya Kaminskiy & Ludmila Ogorodova & Maxim Patrushev & Alexander Chulok, 2013. "Medicine of the Future: Opportunities for Breakthrough through the Prism of Technology Foresight," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 14-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:7:y:2013:i:1:p:14-27
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    File URL: https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2014/05/15/1321458362/2013-1-2-Chulok-14-27.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:hig:journl:v:6:y:2012:i:1:p:12-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Konstantin Vishnevsky & Oleg Karasev, 2010. "Identifying the Future of New Materials with the Use of Foresight Methods," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 4(2), pages 58-67.
    3. Edquist, Charles, 2011. "Innovation Policy Design: Identification of Systemic Problems," Papers in Innovation Studies 2011/6, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.
    4. Alexander Sokolov & Alexander Chulok, 2012. "Russian Science and Technology Foresight – 2030: Key Features and First Results," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 12-25.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Giglavy & Alexander Sokolov & Gulnara Abdrakhmanova & Alexander Chulok & Vasily Burov, 2013. "Long-Term Trends in the ICT Sector," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 7(3), pages 6-24.
    2. Liliana Proskuryakova & Dirk Meissner & Pavel Rudnik, 2017. "The use of technology platforms as a policy tool to address research challenges and technology transfer," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 206-227, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    S&T policy; long-term forecast; priority areas; global challenges; medicine and healthcare; S&T capacities; innovation products;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • O39 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Other

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