Developing and Implementing a Risk Analysis-Based Model for Effective Management of Protected Areas

Managing protected areas (PAs) supports protecting biodiversity and preserves ecological functions. Many risks associated with PAs management affect the most important goals of PAs including sustainability, effectiveness, and ecological balance. This work aims to define the most predictable risk factors affecting PAs management as well as to introduce a model for assessing and exploring the influences of the identified risk factors on PAs management. Fifty-four risk factors affecting the PAs management goals are defined under seven risk groups including general and fundamental preparations, monitoring system, protocols, and implementation plans, training, visitors, employees, and activities conducted within the PAs. Many characteristics of risk factors such as presence rate and impacts on sustainability, effectiveness, and ecological balance goals are introduced. Fuzzy logic is utilized in developing the proposed risk model and applied using data collected in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Various relationships are introduced among risk indices that impact PAs management goals, ensuring close relations among all indices. The results highlight various important risk factors, such as the “Absence of mechanisms for early warning of disasters affecting protected areas”, and the “Lack of a system for monitoring the occurrence development and spread of disasters”. A risk group related to the monitoring system has been identified as causing the highest risk impacting the management of PAs. Further, most of the risk impacts on the three goals are due to protocols and implementation plans group. This work presents a new strategy to support managing PAs in Saudi Arabia, which can be easily adapted for application in other countries.