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Increasing resilience of natural protected areas to future climate change: A fuzzy adaptive management approach

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  • Prato, Tony

Abstract

Climate change and variability is a major threat to natural protected areas that is likely to change the mix of ecosystem goods and services provided by such areas in the future. Managers of natural protected areas may be able to increase the resilience of natural protected areas to climate change and variability by implementing compensatory management actions and evaluating their efficacy using active adaptive management. A fuzzy multiple attribute-adaptive management method is proposed that determines the most preferred compensatory management actions for increasing the resilience of natural protected areas to future climate change and variability. Use of the method requires managers to: (1) identify compensatory management actions that can alleviate potential negative impacts of future climate change and variability on natural protected areas; (2) choose the attributes of compensatory management actions used to assess their efficacy; (3) conduct statistically valid experiments in each time period that generate sample values of the attributes; (4) use the fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity of Ideal Solution to rank compensatory management actions in each time period within a planning horizon; and (5) use the rankings to determine the optimal adaptive management strategy for a planning horizon. The method accounts for uncertainty about the nature of future climate change and variability and the extent to which compensatory management actions reduce potential adverse impacts of climate change and variability on natural protected areas and uses statistically valid experiments to evaluate the efficacy of compensatory management actions. Accordingly, the proposed method is superior to other methods such as safe minimum standard, precautionary principle, minimax regret criterion, scenario planning, and passive adaptive management.

Suggested Citation

  • Prato, Tony, 2012. "Increasing resilience of natural protected areas to future climate change: A fuzzy adaptive management approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 46-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:242:y:2012:i:c:p:46-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.05.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Prato, Tony, 2003. "Multiple-attribute evaluation of ecosystem management for the Missouri River system," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 297-309, June.
    2. Richard C. Bishop, 1978. "Endangered Species and Uncertainty: The Economics of a Safe Minimum Standard," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 60(1), pages 10-18.
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    5. Tony Prato, 2008. "Accounting for risk and uncertainty in determining preferred strategies for adapting to future climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 47-60, January.
    6. Prato, Tony, 2009. "Evaluating and managing wildlife impacts of climate change under uncertainty," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(7), pages 923-930.
    7. Anonymous, 1997. "The Forecasting and Policy System: an introduction," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 60, September.
    8. Terry L. Root & Jeff T. Price & Kimberly R. Hall & Stephen H. Schneider & Cynthia Rosenzweig & J. Alan Pounds, 2003. "Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 57-60, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hajiahmadi, Delnia & Amanollahi, Jamil, 2018. "Fuzzy risk assessment modelling of wild animal life in Bijar protected area," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 387(C), pages 49-60.
    2. Tony Prato, 2015. "Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Sustainability of Forest Fuel Reduction Treatments and Their Adaptation to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-21, March.

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