IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v8y2016i6p513-d70938.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the Driving Factors and Contributions to Carbon Emissions of Energy Consumption from the Perspective of the Peak Volume and Time Based on LEAP

Author

Listed:
  • Lei Tian

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China)

  • Zhe Ding

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China)

  • Yongxuan Wang

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China)

  • Haiyan Duan

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China)

  • Shuo Wang

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China)

  • Jie Tang

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China)

  • Xian’en Wang

    (Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China)

Abstract

Studying the driving factors and contributions of carbon emissions peak volume and time is essential for reducing the cumulative carbon emissions in developing countries with rapid economic development and increasing carbon emissions. Taking Jilin Province as a case study, four scenarios were set in this paper respectively: Business as Usual Scenario (BAU), Energy-Saving Scenario (ESS), Energy-Saving and Low-Carbon Scenario (ELS), and Low-Carbon Scenario (LCS). Furthermore, the carbon emissions were predicted according to the energy consumption based on the application of LEAP system. The research result showed that the peak time of carbon emissions would appear in 2045, 2040, 2035 and 2025 under the four different scenarios, respectively. The peak volumes would be 489.8 Mt, 395.2 Mt, 305.3 Mt and 233.6 Mt, respectively. The cumulative emissions by 2050 are respectively 15.632 Bt, 13.321 Bt, 10.971 Bt and 8.379 Bt. According to the forecasting, we analyzed the driving factors of and contributions to carbon emissions peak volume and time. On the premise of moderate economic growth, the “structural emission reduction”, namely the adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure, and “technology emission reduction”, namely the reduction of energy intensity and carbon emission coefficient could make the peak volume reduced by 20%–52% and cumulative carbon emissions (2050) reduced by 15%–46% on the basis of BAU. Meanwhile, controlling the industrial structure, energy structure and energy intensity could make carbon emissions reach the peak 5–20 years ahead of the time on the basis of BAU. Controlling GDP, industrial structure, energy structure, energy intensity and coefficient of carbon emissions is the feasible method to adjust the carbon emissions peak volume and time in order to reduce the cumulative emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Tian & Zhe Ding & Yongxuan Wang & Haiyan Duan & Shuo Wang & Jie Tang & Xian’en Wang, 2016. "Analysis of the Driving Factors and Contributions to Carbon Emissions of Energy Consumption from the Perspective of the Peak Volume and Time Based on LEAP," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-17, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:6:p:513-:d:70938
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/6/513/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/6/513/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, Nyun-Bae & Yun, Sun-Jin & Jeon, Eui-Chan, 2013. "An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 288-296.
    2. Shabbir, Rabia & Ahmad, Sheikh Saeed, 2010. "Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2323-2332.
    3. Huang, Yophy & Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey & Peng, Chieh-Yu, 2011. "The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6790-6803.
    4. de Ia Rue du Can, Stephane & Price, Lynn, 2008. "Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1386-1403, April.
    5. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    6. Hong, Sungjun & Chung, Yanghon & Kim, Jongwook & Chun, Dongphil, 2016. "Analysis on the level of contribution to the national greenhouse gas reduction target in Korean transportation sector using LEAP model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 549-559.
    7. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1059-1082, April.
    8. Zhou, Xiaoyan & Zhang, Jie & Li, Junpeng, 2013. "Industrial structural transformation and carbon dioxide emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 43-51.
    9. Zhi-Fu Mi & Su-Yan Pan & Hao Yu & Yi-Ming Wei, 2014. "Potential impacts of industrial structure on energy consumption and CO2 emission: a case study of Beijing," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 51, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    10. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
    11. Letschert, Virginie & Desroches, Louis-Benoit & Ke, Jing & McNeil, Michael, 2013. "Energy efficiency – How far can we raise the bar? Revealing the potential of best available technologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 72-82.
    12. Zhou, Guanghui & Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang, 2013. "Development of electric vehicles use in China: A study from the perspective of life-cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 875-884.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhiyuan Duan & Xian’en Wang & Xize Dong & Haiyan Duan & Junnian Song, 2020. "Peaking Industrial Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions in Typical Transformation Region: Paths and Mechanism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Wang, Jie & Xiong, Yiling & Tian, Xin & Liu, Shangwei & Li, Jiashuo & Tanikawa, Hiroki, 2018. "Stagnating CO2 emissions with in-depth socioeconomic transition in Beijing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1714-1725.
    3. Xianen Wang & Baoyang Qin & Hanning Wang & Xize Dong & Haiyan Duan, 2022. "Carbon Mitigation Pathways of Urban Transportation under Cold Climatic Conditions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Junyao Wang & Anqi Liu, 2022. "Scenario Analysis of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions from Current Policies: A Case Study of Guangdong Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-20, July.
    5. Lai, Xiaodong & Liu, Jixian & Shi, Qian & Georgiev, Georgi & Wu, Guangdong, 2017. "Driving forces for low carbon technology innovation in the building industry: A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 299-315.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Subramanyam, Veena & Kumar, Amit & Talaei, Alireza & Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain, 2017. "Energy efficiency improvement opportunities and associated greenhouse gas abatement costs for the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 795-807.
    2. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
    3. El-Sayed, Ahmed Hassan A. & Khalil, Adel & Yehia, Mohamed, 2023. "Modeling alternative scenarios for Egypt 2050 energy mix based on LEAP analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    4. Hong, Sungjun & Chung, Yanghon & Kim, Jongwook & Chun, Dongphil, 2016. "Analysis on the level of contribution to the national greenhouse gas reduction target in Korean transportation sector using LEAP model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 549-559.
    5. Junjie Wang & Yuan Li & Yi Zhang, 2022. "Research on Carbon Emissions of Road Traffic in Chengdu City Based on a LEAP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, May.
    6. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    7. Wei, Yi-Ming & Mi, Zhi-Fu & Huang, Zhimin, 2015. "Climate policy modeling: An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PA), pages 70-84.
    8. Marco Badami & Gabriele Fambri & Salvatore Mancò & Mariapia Martino & Ioannis G. Damousis & Dimitrios Agtzidis & Dimitrios Tzovaras, 2019. "A Decision Support System Tool to Manage the Flexibility in Renewable Energy-Based Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    9. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Robert Valencia-Chapi, 2019. "Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    10. Lingyun He & Fang Yin & Zhangqi Zhong & Zhihua Ding, 2017. "The impact of local government investment on the carbon emissions reduction effect: An empirical analysis of panel data from 30 provinces and municipalities in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-20, July.
    11. Sana Bashir & Iftikhar Ahmad & Sajid Rashid Ahmad, 2018. "Low-Emission Modeling for Energy Demand in the Household Sector: A Study of Pakistan as a Developing Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, October.
    12. Reza Hafezi & Amir Naser Akhavan & Mazdak Zamani & Saeed Pakseresht & Shahaboddin Shamshirband, 2019. "Developing a Data Mining Based Model to Extract Predictor Factors in Energy Systems: Application of Global Natural Gas Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, October.
    13. Hong, Jong Ho & Kim, Jitae & Son, Wonik & Shin, Heeyoung & Kim, Nahyun & Lee, Woong Ki & Kim, Jintae, 2019. "Long-term energy strategy scenarios for South Korea: Transition to a sustainable energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 425-437.
    14. Awopone, Albert K. & Zobaa, Ahmed F. & Banuenumah, Walter, 2017. "Techno-economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion plan of Ghana," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 13-22.
    15. Ahanchian, Mohammad & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel, 2014. "Energy demand, emissions forecasts and mitigation strategies modeled over a medium-range horizon: The case of the land transportation sector in Metro Manila," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 615-629.
    16. Shahid, Muhammad & Ullah, Kafait & Imran, Kashif & Masroor, Neha & Sajid, Muhammad Bilal, 2022. "Economic and environmental analysis of green transport penetration in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    17. Zhao, Jincai & Ji, Guangxing & Yue, YanLin & Lai, Zhizhu & Chen, Yulong & Yang, Dongyang & Yang, Xu & Wang, Zheng, 2019. "Spatio-temporal dynamics of urban residential CO2 emissions and their driving forces in China using the integrated two nighttime light datasets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 612-624.
    18. Pedro Gerber Machado & Ana Carolina Rodrigues Teixeira & Flavia Mendes de Almeida Collaço & Adam Hawkes & Dominique Mouette, 2020. "Assessment of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutant Emissions in the Road Freight Transport Sector: A Case Study for São Paulo State, Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-26, October.
    19. Park, Eunil & Kwon, Sang Jib, 2016. "Solutions for optimizing renewable power generation systems at Kyung-Hee University׳s Global Campus, South Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 439-449.
    20. Ma, Jianli & Li, Qi & Kühn, Michael & Nakaten, Natalie, 2018. "Power-to-gas based subsurface energy storage: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 478-496.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:6:p:513-:d:70938. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.