IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v8y2016i11p1082-d81340.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Vector Auto Regression Model Applied to Real Estate Development Investment: A Statistic Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Fengyun Liu

    (School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China)

  • Shuji Matsuno

    (Department of Economics, Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu 525-8577, Japan)

  • Reza Malekian

    (Department of Electrical, Electronic & Computer Engineering, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

  • Jin Yu

    (College of Economics and Management, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China)

  • Zhixiong Li

    (UNSW Australia, Sydney 2052, Australia)

Abstract

This study analyzes the economic system dynamics of investment in real estate from mainly four participants in China. Local governments limit the supply of commercial and residential land to raise fiscal revenue, and expand debts by land mortgage to develop industrial zones and parks. Led by local government, banks and real estate development enterprises forge a coalition on real estate investment and facilitate real estate price appreciation. The above theoretical model is empirically evidenced with VAR (Vector Auto Regression) methodology. A panel VAR model shows that land leasing and real estate price appreciation positively affect local government general fiscal revenue. Additional VAR models find that bank credit in addition to private and foreign funds respectively have strong positive dynamic effects on housing prices. Housing prices also have a strong positive impact on speculation from private funds and hot money.

Suggested Citation

  • Fengyun Liu & Shuji Matsuno & Reza Malekian & Jin Yu & Zhixiong Li, 2016. "A Vector Auto Regression Model Applied to Real Estate Development Investment: A Statistic Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:11:p:1082-:d:81340
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/11/1082/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/11/1082/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    2. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 421-480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Prakash Loungani & Paolo Mauro, 2001. "Capital Flight from Russia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 689-706, May.
    4. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    5. Hongwei Wang & Ko Wang, 2012. "What is Unique about Chinese Real Estate Markets?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 34(3), pages 275-290.
    6. Lastrapes, William D., 2002. "The Real Price of Housing and Money Supply Shocks: Time Series Evidence and Theoretical Simulations," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 40-74, March.
    7. Liang, Qi & Cao, Hua, 2007. "Property prices and bank lending in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 63-75, February.
    8. Tung, Chen-Yuan & Baker, Sam, 2004. "RMB revaluation will serve China's self-interest," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 331-335.
    9. Feng Guo & Ying Huang, 2010. "Hot Money and Business Cycle Volatility: Evidence from China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(6), pages 73-89, November.
    10. Mingxing Liu & Ran Tao & Fei Yuan & Guangzhong Cao, 2008. "Instrumental land use investment-driven growth in China," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 313-331.
    11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    12. Canfei He & Junsong Wang & Shaoming Cheng, 2011. "What attracts foreign direct investment in China’s real estate development?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 46(2), pages 267-293, April.
    13. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 231-272, April.
    14. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    15. Ran Tao & Fubing Su & Mingxing Liu & Guangzhong Cao, 2010. "Land Leasing and Local Public Finance in China’s Regional Development: Evidence from Prefecture-level Cities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(10), pages 2217-2236, September.
    16. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Gaiyan Zhang & Hung-Gay Fung, 2006. "On the Imbalance Between the Real Estate Market and the Stock Markets in China," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 26-39, April.
    18. Ewing, Bradley T. & Thompson, Mark A., 2008. "VAR and generalized impulse response analysis of manufacturing unit labor costs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(11), pages 2575-2583.
    19. Dekker, Arie & Sen, Kunal & Young, Martin R., 2001. "Equity market linkages in the Asia Pacific region: A comparison of the orthogonalised and generalised VAR approaches," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-33.
    20. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lihe Tu & Emanuele Padovani, 2018. "A Research on the Debt Sustainability of China’s Major City Governments in Post-Land Finance Era," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Shengfu Yang & Shougeng Hu & Weidong Li & Chuanrong Zhang & José A. Torres, 2017. "Spatiotemporal Effects of Main Impact Factors on Residential Land Price in Major Cities of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Zhangcheng Chen & Yueming Hu & Chen Jason Zhang & Yilun Liu, 2017. "An Optimal Rubrics-Based Approach to Real Estate Appraisal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Jaromir Vrbka & Tomas Krulicky & Tomas Brabenec & Jan Hejda, 2020. "Determining the Increase in a Building’s Appreciation Rate Due to a Reconstruction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-13, September.
    5. Jiangtao Li & Jianyue Ji & Huiwen Guo & Lei Chen, 2018. "Research on the Influence of Real Estate Development on Private Investment: A Case Study of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, July.
    6. Fengyun Liu & Chuanzhe Liu & Honghao Ren, 2018. "Urban Housing Price Fluctuations and Regional Systemic Financial Risks: Panel Spatial Economic Models in Jiangsu, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elyasiani, Elyas & Kocagil, Ahmet E. & Mansur, Iqbal, 2007. "Information transmission and spillover in currency markets: A generalized variance decomposition analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 312-330, May.
    2. Kenneth F. Wallis & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
    3. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    4. Elbourne, Adam, 2008. "The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: An SVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-87, March.
    5. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    6. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "New Information Response Functions," Working papers 235, Banque de France.
    7. Carlos J. García & Andrés Sagner, 2011. "Crédito, Exceso de toma de Riesgo, Costo de Crédito y ciclo Económico en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 645, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    9. Sterken, Elmer, 2003. "Monetary transmission, asset prices, and the business cycle indicator in Germany," CCSO Working Papers 200315, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    10. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    11. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    12. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "A Structural Cointegrating VAR Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9823, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008. "Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
    14. Piyachart Phiromswad, 2014. "Measuring monetary policy with empirically grounded identifying restrictions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 681-699, March.
    15. Dekker, Arie & Sen, Kunal & Young, Martin R., 2001. "Equity market linkages in the Asia Pacific region: A comparison of the orthogonalised and generalised VAR approaches," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-33.
    16. Elmer Sterken, 2005. "The Role of the Ifo Business Climate Indicator and Asset Prices in German Monetary Policy," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 173-201, Springer.
    17. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    18. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2013. "L’apport de la représentation VAR de Christopher A. Sims à la science économique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 309-319, Décembre.
    19. Ewing, Bradley T. & Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur, 2007. "Disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1274-1281, February.
    20. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:11:p:1082-:d:81340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.