IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v7y2015i8p9864-9889d53068.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding Global Systems Today—A Calibration of the World3-03 Model between 1995 and 2012

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Pasqualino

    (Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, East Road, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK)

  • Aled W. Jones

    (Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, East Road, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK)

  • Irene Monasterolo

    (The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University, 67 Bay State Road, Boston, MA 02215, USA)

  • Alexander Phillips

    (Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, East Road, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK)

Abstract

In 1972 the Limits to Growth report was published. It used the World3 model to better understand the dynamics of global systems and their relationship to finite resource availability, land use, and persistent pollution accumulation. The trends of resource depletion and degradation of physical systems which were identified by Limits to Growth have continued. Although World3 forecast scenarios are based on key measures and assumptions that cannot be easily assessed using available data ( i.e. , non-renewable resources, persistent pollution), the dynamics of growth components of the model can be compared with publicly available global data trends. Based on Scenario 2 of the Limits to Growth study, we present a calibration of the updated World3-03 model using historical data from 1995 to 2012 to better understand the dynamics of today’s economic and resource system. Given that accurate data on physical limits does not currently exist, the dynamics of overshoot to global limits are not assessed. In this paper we offer a new interpretation of the parametrisation of World3-03 using these data to explore how its assumptions on global dynamics, environmental footprints and responses have changed over the past 40 years. The results show that human society has invested more to abate persistent pollution, to increase food productivity and have a more productive service sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Pasqualino & Aled W. Jones & Irene Monasterolo & Alexander Phillips, 2015. "Understanding Global Systems Today—A Calibration of the World3-03 Model between 1995 and 2012," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-26, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:8:p:9864-9889:d:53068
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/8/9864/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/8/9864/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kleijnen, J.P.C., 1995. "Sensitivity analysis and optimization of system dynamics models : Regression analysis and statistical design of experiments," Other publications TiSEM 87ee6ee0-592c-4204-ac50-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. John D. W. Morecroft, 2012. "Metaphorical Models for Limits to Growth and Industrialization," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 645-666, November.
    3. Graham M Turner, 2008. "A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality," Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED) Working Paper Series 2008-09, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems.
    4. Morecroft, John D. W., 1988. "System dynamics and microworlds for policymakers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 301-320, June.
    5. Ugo Bardi, 2013. "Mind Sized World Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-16, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nick King & Aled Jones, 2021. "An Analysis of the Potential for the Formation of ‘Nodes of Persisting Complexity’," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-32, July.
    4. Roberto Pasqualino & Irene Monasterolo & Aled Jones, 2019. "An Integrated Global Food and Energy Security System Dynamics Model for Addressing Systemic Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-20, July.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oliva, Rogelio, 2003. "Model calibration as a testing strategy for system dynamics models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 552-568, December.
    2. Lukáš Režný & Vladimír Bureš, 2019. "Energy Transition Scenarios and Their Economic Impacts in the Extended Neoclassical Model of Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-25, July.
    3. Daneshzand, Farzaneh & Asali, Mehdi & Al-Sobhi, Saad A. & Diabat, Ali & Elkamel, Ali, 2022. "A simulation-based optimization scheme for phase-out of natural gas subsidies considering welfare and economic measures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    4. Turner, Benjamin L., 2020. "Model laboratories: A quick-start guide for design of simulation experiments for dynamic systems models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 434(C).
    5. Saleh, Mohamed & Oliva, Rogelio & Kampmann, Christian Erik & Davidsen, Pål I., 2010. "A comprehensive analytical approach for policy analysis of system dynamics models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 673-683, June.
    6. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    7. Nicolas Bouleau, 2012. "Limits To Growth And Stochastics," Post-Print halshs-00782948, HAL.
    8. repec:voc:wpaper:tech82012 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Malmaeus, J. Mikael & Alfredsson, Eva C., 2017. "Potential Consequences on the Economy of Low or No Growth - Short and Long Term Perspectives," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 57-64.
    10. Xhulia Likaj & Michael Jacobs & Thomas Fricke, 2022. "Growth, Degrowth or Post-growth? Towards a synthetic understanding of the growth debate," Basic Papers 2, Forum New Economy.
    11. Hänsel, Martin C. & Quaas, Martin F., 2018. "Intertemporal Distribution, Sufficiency, and the Social Cost of Carbon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 520-535.
    12. Thomas Döring & Birgit Aigner-Walder, 2022. "The Limits to Growth — 50 Years Ago and Today," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 187-191, May.
    13. Trutnevyte, Evelina & McDowall, Will & Tomei, Julia & Keppo, Ilkka, 2016. "Energy scenario choices: Insights from a retrospective review of UK energy futures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 326-337.
    14. Nick King & Aled Jones, 2021. "An Analysis of the Potential for the Formation of ‘Nodes of Persisting Complexity’," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-32, July.
    15. Bob Walrave, 2016. "Determining intervention thresholds that change output behavior patterns," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 32(3-4), pages 261-278, July.
    16. Marco Filippo Torchio & Umberto Lucia & Giulia Grisolia, 2020. "Economic and Human Features for Energy and Environmental Indicators: A Tool to Assess Countries’ Progress towards Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-19, November.
    17. Kostas Bithas & Panos Kalimeris, 2022. "Coupling versus Decoupling? Challenging Evidence over the Link between Economic Growth and Resource Use," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-11, January.
    18. Ugo Bardi & Virginia Pierini & Alessandro Lavacchi & Christophe Mangeant, 2014. "Peak Waste? The Other Side of the Industrial Cycle," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(7), pages 1-14, June.
    19. Matthew, George Jr. & Nuttall, William J & Mestel, Ben & Dooley, Laurence S, 2017. "A dynamic simulation of low-carbon policy influences on endogenous electricity demand in an isolated island system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 121-131.
    20. Roberto Pasqualino & Irene Monasterolo & Aled Jones, 2019. "An Integrated Global Food and Energy Security System Dynamics Model for Addressing Systemic Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-20, July.
    21. Boschetti, Fabio & Walker, Iain & Price, Jennifer, 2016. "Modelling and attitudes towards the future," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 71-81.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:8:p:9864-9889:d:53068. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.