IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v6y2014i7p4119-4132d37642.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Peak Waste? The Other Side of the Industrial Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Ugo Bardi

    (Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence, Polo Scientifico di Sesto Fiorentino, Via della Lastruccia 3, Sesto Fiorentino (Fi) 50019, Italy)

  • Virginia Pierini

    (Consorzio Interuniversitario per la Scienza e la Tecnologia dei Materiali (INSTM), Research Unity of Florence, Polo Scientifico di Sesto,Via della Lastruccia 3, Sesto Fiorentino (Fi) 50019, Italy)

  • Alessandro Lavacchi

    (CNR-Istituto di Chimica dei Composti OrganoMetallici, Via Madonna del Piano 10, Sesto Fiorentino (Fi) 50019, Italy)

  • Christophe Mangeant

    (The Shift Project's Volunteers Group, 96 rue de la Victoire, Paris 75009, France)

Abstract

The modern industrial cycle is mainly based on non-renewable mineral resources extracted from the Earth’s crust. After being processed and transformed into commodities, the products of mining become manufactured products which go through the economic system and are then discarded in the form of gaseous, liquid or solid waste. Eventually, the mass of the output in the form of waste must balance the input in the form of minerals. A large number of model studies have been performed on the first phase of the cycle—the production of mineral commodities—often with a specific interest in fossil fuels, with the objective of determining the future prospects of production. However, very few model studies of this kind have been performed about the future trends of waste generation. In this paper, we examine models of the industrial cycle compared to historical trends in municipal solid waste generation for different regions of the world. We show that waste generation in developed countries goes in parallel with the trends of industrial production and that several regions are showing a declining trend which may be interpreted in terms of “peaking” just as it is often done for the production of fossil fuels. Therefore, the “waste problem” in terms of increasing amounts of waste to be processed and disposed may not be so urgent as it is commonly perceived.

Suggested Citation

  • Ugo Bardi & Virginia Pierini & Alessandro Lavacchi & Christophe Mangeant, 2014. "Peak Waste? The Other Side of the Industrial Cycle," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(7), pages 1-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:6:y:2014:i:7:p:4119-4132:d:37642
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/6/7/4119/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/6/7/4119/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Bentley, Roger & Söderbergh, Bengt & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 860-870.
    2. Bardi, Ugo & Lavacchi, Alessandro & Yaxley, Leigh, 2011. "Modelling EROEI and net energy in the exploitation of non renewable resources," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 54-58.
    3. Ugo Bardi, 2013. "Mind Sized World Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-16, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haibin Chen & Wei Jiang & Yan Yang & Xin Man & Mingyi Tang, 2015. "A bibliometric analysis of waste management research during the period 1997–2014," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(2), pages 1005-1018, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ilaria Perissi & Alessandro Lavacchi & Ugo Bardi, 2021. "The Role of Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) in Complex Adaptive Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Tsai, Bi-Huei & Chang, Chih-Jen & Chang, Chun-Hsien, 2016. "Elucidating the consumption and CO2 emissions of fossil fuels and low-carbon energy in the United States using Lotka–Volterra models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 416-424.
    3. Lukáš Režný & Vladimír Bureš, 2019. "Energy Transition Scenarios and Their Economic Impacts in the Extended Neoclassical Model of Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-25, July.
    4. Nick King & Aled Jones, 2021. "An Analysis of the Potential for the Formation of ‘Nodes of Persisting Complexity’," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-32, July.
    5. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Snowden, Simon & Aleklett, Kjell, 2014. "Bottom-up modeling of oil production: A review of approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 113-123.
    6. Paul R. Ehrlich & Anne H. Ehrlich, 2016. "Population, Resources, and the Faith-Based Economy: the Situation in 2016," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-9, August.
    7. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    8. Sáfián, Fanni, 2014. "Modelling the Hungarian energy system – The first step towards sustainable energy planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 58-66.
    9. Fagnart, Jean-François & Germain, Marc, 2016. "Net energy ratio, EROEI and the macroeconomy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 121-126.
    10. Syed Aziz Ur Rehman & Yanpeng Cai & Nayyar Hussain Mirjat & Gordhan Das Walasai & Izaz Ali Shah & Sharafat Ali, 2017. "The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-24, November.
    11. Sällh, David & Höök, Mikael & Grandell, Leena & Davidsson, Simon, 2014. "Evaluation and update of Norwegian and Danish oil production forecasts and implications for Swedish oil import," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 333-345.
    12. Ali Mirchi & Saeed Hadian & Kaveh Madani & Omid M. Rouhani & Azadeh M. Rouhani, 2012. "World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(8), pages 1-26, July.
    13. Douglas B. Reynolds, 2024. "U.S. shale oil production and trend estimation: Forecasting a Hubbert model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 468-487, January.
    14. Ugo Bardi & Sara Falsini & Ilaria Perissi, 2019. "Toward a General Theory of Societal Collapse: A Biophysical Examination of Tainter’s Model of the Diminishing Returns of Complexity," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-9, March.
    15. Singh, Bhaskar & Guldhe, Abhishek & Rawat, Ismail & Bux, Faizal, 2014. "Towards a sustainable approach for development of biodiesel from plant and microalgae," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 216-245.
    16. Ugo Bardi, 2013. "Mind Sized World Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-16, March.
    17. Perissi, Ilaria & Bardi, Ugo & El Asmar, Toufic & Lavacchi, Alessandro, 2017. "Dynamic patterns of overexploitation in fisheries," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 285-292.
    18. Vikström, Hanna & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Lithium availability and future production outlooks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 252-266.
    19. Walan, Petter & Davidsson, Simon & Johansson, Sheshti & Höök, Mikael, 2014. "Phosphate rock production and depletion: Regional disaggregated modeling and global implications," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 178-187.
    20. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:6:y:2014:i:7:p:4119-4132:d:37642. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.