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Limits To Growth And Stochastics

Author

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  • Nicolas Bouleau

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to use probabilistic ideas to study predictive reasoning based on hypotheses and models, but without using Ito calculus, without writing any stochastic differential equations, in fact without writing any formulas at all. The aim is to extract from the study of stochastic processes those qualitative traits that have significant philosophical implications for the political decision-making process. Indeed, we need to acknowledge that the impact of the economy on the environment is not a result of temperance or mitigation of natural variations but rather that the economy itself - in addition to the underlying trends due to growth - is a major source of perturbations arising from the random fluctuations in prices or values that are caused by the anticipations made by the agents. Consequently we need to understand the additional effects that randomness superimposes on arguments based on the finiteness of the world and its flows of energy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Bouleau, 2012. "Limits To Growth And Stochastics," Post-Print halshs-00782948, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00782948
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00782948
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graham M Turner, 2008. "A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality," Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED) Working Paper Series 2008-09, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems.
    2. Nick Hanley, 1992. "Are there environmental limits to cost benefit analysis?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 33-59, January.
    3. J. Barkley Rosser, 1999. "On the Complexities of Complex Economic Dynamics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 169-192, Fall.
    4. Dieter Helm, 2011. "Peak oil and energy policy--a critique," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(1), pages 68-91, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ansell, Thomas & Cayzer, Steve, 2018. "Limits to growth redux: A system dynamics model for assessing energy and climate change constraints to global growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 514-525.

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