IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v7y2015i4p3823-3837d47536.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Construction of an Early-Warning System for Vegetable Prices Based on Index Contribution Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Youzhu Li

    (College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Jingbo Xia

    (College of Informatics, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Chongguang Li

    (College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Mingyang Zheng

    (College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

Abstract

An early-warning indicator screening method is proposed in order to construct an early-warning system for vegetable prices. Through index contribution analysis and the application of a support vector regression algorithm, we compare the results of early warning before and after index optimization. Experimental results show that the proposed early-warning system was significantly improved after indicator optimization by using index contribution analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Youzhu Li & Jingbo Xia & Chongguang Li & Mingyang Zheng, 2015. "Construction of an Early-Warning System for Vegetable Prices Based on Index Contribution Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:4:p:3823-3837:d:47536
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/4/3823/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/4/3823/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, Kym & Nelgen, Signe, 2012. "Trade Barrier Volatility and Agricultural Price Stabilization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 36-48.
    2. Cynthia Benzing, 2000. "Using discriminant analysis to predict financial distress," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 6(3), pages 591-591, August.
    3. Vu, Linh & Glewwe, Paul, 2011. "Impacts of Rising Food Prices on Poverty and Welfare in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1950. "Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor50-1.
    5. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    6. Seth Meyer & Wyatt Thompson, 2010. "Demand Behavior and Commodity Price Volatility Under Evolving Biofuel Markets and Policies," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Madhu Khanna & Jürgen Scheffran & David Zilberman (ed.), Handbook of Bioenergy Economics and Policy, chapter 0, pages 133-148, Springer.
    7. Nikos Alexandratos, 2008. "Food Price Surges: Possible Causes, Past Experience, and Longer Term Relevance," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(4), pages 663-697, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Youzhu Li & Jinsi Liu & Hongyu Yang & Jianxin Chen & Jason Xiong, 2021. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Literature on Vegetable Prices at Domestic and International Markets—A Knowledge Graph Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Natalia Brzezina & Birgit Kopainsky & Erik Mathijs, 2016. "Can Organic Farming Reduce Vulnerabilities and Enhance the Resilience of the European Food System? A Critical Assessment Using System Dynamics Structural Thinking Tools," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-32, September.
    2. Negi, Digvijay S., 2022. "Global food price surge, in-kind transfers and household welfare: Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Pham Van Ha & Hoa Thi Minh Nguyen & Tom Kompas & Tuong Nhu Che & Bui Trinh, 2015. "Rice Production, Trade and the Poor: Regional Effects of Rice Export Policy on Households in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 280-307, June.
    4. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2018. "Agricultural Price Shocks and Business Cycles - A Global Warning for Advanced Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7037, CESifo.
    5. Estrades, Carmen, 2015. "The Role of Export Restrictions in Agriculture Trade," 2015: Trade and Societal Well-Being, December 13-15, 2015, Clearwater Beach, Florida 229229, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    6. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Emilia Lamonaca, 2019. "On the drivers of global grain price volatility: an empirical investigation," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 31-42.
    7. Wenshou Yan & Yan Cai & Faqin Lin & Dessie Tarko Ambaw, 2021. "The Impacts of Trade Restrictions on World Agricultural Price Volatility during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(6), pages 139-158, November.
    8. Digvijay S. Negi, 2022. "Global food price surge, in-kind transfers, and household welfare evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-006, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    9. Matthias Kalkuhl & Mekbib Haile & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka, 2015. "Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes. FOODSECURE Working Paper No 33," FOODSECURE Working papers 33, LEI Wageningen UR.
    10. Yu, Xiaohua, 2014. "Monetary easing policy and long-run food prices: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-183.
    11. Dorosh, Paul A. & Kennedy, Adam & Torero, Máximo, 2016. "El Niño and cereal production shortfalls: Policies for resilience and food security in 2016 and beyond:," Policy briefs 978-089629-988-7, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Gibson, John & Kim, Bonggeun, 2013. "Quality, Quantity, and Nutritional Impacts of Rice Price Changes in Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 329-340.
    13. Gibson, John & Kim, Bonggeun, 2013. "Do the urban poor face higher food prices? Evidence from Vietnam," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 193-203.
    14. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    15. Oludele Akinloye Akinboade & Segun Adeyemi Adeyefa, 2018. "An Analysis of Variance of Food Security by its Main Determinants Among the Urban Poor in the City of Tshwane, South Africa," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 61-82, May.
    16. Karakotsios, Achillefs & Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Kroupis, Nikolaos, 2021. "The dynamic linkages between food prices and oil prices. Does asymmetry matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    17. Tokic, Damir, 2011. "Rational destabilizing speculation, positive feedback trading, and the oil bubble of 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2051-2061, April.
    18. Gore, Christopher D., 2018. "How African cities lead: Urban policy innovation and agriculture in Kampala and Nairobi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 169-180.
    19. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2004. "Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(2), pages 171-191.
    20. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2011. "Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Robust Approach," Working Papers id:4391, eSocialSciences.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:4:p:3823-3837:d:47536. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.