IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i3p1198-d1582178.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Interplay Between Green Finance, Policy Uncertainty and Carbon Market Volatility: A Time Frequency Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammed Ahmar Uddin

    (Department of Finance and Economics, College of Commerce and Business Administration, Dhofar University, Salalah 211, Oman)

  • Bisharat Hussain Chang

    (Department of Business Administration, Sukkur IBA University, Sukkur 65200, Pakistan)

  • Salem Hamad Aldawsari

    (Department of Finance, College of Business Administration, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Hotat Bani Tamim Campus, Al-Kharj 16278, Saudi Arabia)

  • Ruoyu Li

    (School of Criminal Justice, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China)

Abstract

Climate change and the transition to sustainable development have heightened the global focus on carbon markets and green finance as critical tools for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding the factors driving carbon market volatility has become increasingly important as countries strive to meet climate goals. In this connection, our study investigates the interplay between green finance and carbon market volatility in China. For this purpose, we use monthly data from January 2015 to April 2023. The findings reveal that policy uncertainty significantly influences carbon market volatility, with a positive short-term relationship indicating that heightened policy uncertainty drives carbon market volatility upward due to increased market volatility. Conversely, issuing green finance-related certificates dampens carbon market volatility, suggesting that enhanced green finance reduces the demand for carbon allowances. This study underscores the critical role of stable economic policies and robust green finance initiatives in mitigating carbon market volatility, providing valuable insights for policymakers aiming to foster resilient and sustainable carbon markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Ahmar Uddin & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Salem Hamad Aldawsari & Ruoyu Li, 2025. "The Interplay Between Green Finance, Policy Uncertainty and Carbon Market Volatility: A Time Frequency Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-28, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:3:p:1198-:d:1582178
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/3/1198/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/3/1198/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Lixia & Luo, Qin & Guo, Xiaozhu & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Medium-term and long-term volatility forecasts for EUA futures with country-specific economic policy uncertainty indices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Yang, Lin & Li, Fengyu & Zhang, Xian, 2016. "Chinese companies’ awareness and perceptions of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS): Evidence from a national survey in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 254-265.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6969 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Li, Xin & Li, Zheng & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad & Shao, Xuefeng, 2022. "Exploring the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on China's carbon emissions trading market price: Do different types of uncertainty matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    5. Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors: A view from the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 614-625, July.
    6. Rannou, Yves & Boutabba, Mohamed Amine & Barneto, Pascal, 2021. "Are Green Bond and Carbon Markets in Europe complements or substitutes? Insights from the activity of power firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Löschel, Andreas & Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Managi, Shunsuke, 2019. "The impacts of the EU ETS on efficiency and economic performance – An empirical analyses for German manufacturing firms," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 71-95.
    8. Keppler, Jan Horst & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria, 2010. "Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3329-3341, July.
    9. Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
    10. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    11. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Yiying & yan, Cheng & Wen, Fenghua & Lu, Zudi, 2022. "The interrelationship between the carbon market and the green bonds market: Evidence from wavelet quantile-on-quantile method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    12. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea & Ojea-Ferreiro, Javier, 2022. "Do green bonds de-risk investment in low-carbon stocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2019. "What happens to the relationship between EU allowances prices and stock market indices in Europe?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 13-24.
    14. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ye, Shunxin & Han, Dong & Wang, Ping & He, Kaijian & Wei, Yi-Ming & Xie, Rui, 2019. "A multiscale analysis for carbon price drivers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 202-216.
    15. McInerney, Celine & Bunn, Derek W., 2019. "Expansion of the investor base for the energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1240-1244.
    16. Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Hussain, Khadim & Haddad, Akram Masoud & Salman, Asma & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2022. "The role of Financial Development and Technological Innovation towards Sustainable Development in Pakistan: Fresh insights from consumption and territory-based emissions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    17. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    18. Han, Meng & Ding, Lili & Zhao, Xin & Kang, Wanglin, 2019. "Forecasting carbon prices in the Shenzhen market, China: The role of mixed-frequency factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 69-76.
    19. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    20. Bel, Germà & Joseph, Stephan, 2015. "Emission abatement: Untangling the impacts of the EU ETS and the economic crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 531-539.
    21. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    22. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "On the transmission mechanism of country-specific and international economic uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR connectedness decomposition approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 63-71.
    23. Bao-jun Tang & Pi-qin Gong & Cheng Shen, 2017. "Factors of carbon price volatility in a comparative analysis of the EUA and sCER," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 157-168, August.
    24. Zeng, Shihong & Nan, Xin & Liu, Chao & Chen, Jiuying, 2017. "The response of the Beijing carbon emissions allowance price (BJC) to macroeconomic and energy price indices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 111-121.
    25. Jianguo Zhou & Shiguo Wang, 2021. "A Carbon Price Prediction Model Based on the Secondary Decomposition Algorithm and Influencing Factors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, March.
    26. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    27. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
    28. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5269 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Koch, Nicolas & Fuss, Sabine & Grosjean, Godefroy & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2014. "Causes of the EU ETS price drop: Recession, CDM, renewable policies or a bit of everything?—New evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 676-685.
    30. Yu, Jian & Shi, Xunpeng & Guo, Dongmei & Yang, Longjian, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and firm carbon emissions: Evidence using a China provincial EPU index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    31. Jiang, Qingquan & Khattak, Shoukat Iqbal & Rahman, Zia Ur, 2021. "Measuring the simultaneous effects of electricity consumption and production on carbon dioxide emissions (CO2e) in China: New evidence from an EKC-based assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    32. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4210 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Tan, Xue-Ping & Wang, Xin-Yu, 2017. "Dependence changes between the carbon price and its fundamentals: A quantile regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 306-325.
    34. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    35. Boersen, Arieke & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "The relationship between European electricity markets and emission allowance futures prices in phase II of the EU (European Union) emission trading scheme," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 585-594.
    36. Reboredo, Juan C., 2018. "Green bond and financial markets: Co-movement, diversification and price spillover effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 38-50.
    37. Adams, Samuel & Adedoyin, Festus & Olaniran, Eniola & Bekun, Festus Victor, 2020. "Energy consumption, economic policy uncertainty and carbon emissions; causality evidence from resource rich economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 179-190.
    38. Xu, Yingying, 2021. "Risk spillover from energy market uncertainties to the Chinese carbon market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    39. Danish, & Ulucak, Recep & Baloch, Muhammad Awais, 2023. "An empirical approach to the nexus between natural resources and environmental pollution: Do economic policy and environmental-related technologies make any difference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    40. Jian Liu & Ziting Zhang & Lizhao Yan & Fenghua Wen, 2021. "Forecasting the volatility of EUA futures with economic policy uncertainty using the GARCH-MIDAS model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    41. Zhou, Mei-Jing & Huang, Jian-Bai & Chen, Jin-Yu, 2020. "The effects of geopolitical risks on the stock dynamics of China's rare metals: A TVP-VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    42. Ulucak, Recep & Danish, & Ozcan, Burcu, 2020. "Relationship between energy consumption and environmental sustainability in OECD countries: The role of natural resources rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    43. Ching-Chun Wei & Ya-Ling Lin, 2016. "Carbon Future Price Return, Oil Future Price Return and Stock Index Future Price Return in the U.S," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 655-662.
    44. Z. Yu & S.A.R. Khan & P. Ponce & Ana Beatriz Lopes de Sousa Jabbour & C.J. Chiappetta Jabbour, 2022. "Factors Affecting Carbon Emissions in Emerging Economies in the Context of a Green Recovery: Implications for Sustainable Development Goals," Post-Print hal-04276072, HAL.
    45. Ching-Chun Wei & Shu-Min Chen, 2016. "Examining the Relationship of Crude Oil Future Price Return and Agricultural Future Price Return in US," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 58-64.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Houjian & Li, Qingman & Huang, Xinya & Guo, Lili, 2023. "Do green bonds and economic policy uncertainty matter for carbon price? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Li, Xin & Li, Zheng & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad & Shao, Xuefeng, 2022. "Exploring the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on China's carbon emissions trading market price: Do different types of uncertainty matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2020. "How connected is the carbon market to energy and financial markets? A systematic analysis of spillovers and dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Joao Leitao & Joaquim Ferreira & Ernesto Santibanez‐Gonzalez, 2021. "Green bonds, sustainable development and environmental policy in the European Union carbon market," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 2077-2090, May.
    5. Liu, Tao & Guan, Xinyue & Wei, Yigang & Xue, Shan & Xu, Liang, 2023. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on the volatility of China's emission trading scheme pilots," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Man, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Sunpei & He, Yongda, 2024. "Dynamic risk spillover and hedging efficacy of China’s carbon-energy-finance markets: Economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment non-linear causal effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1397-1416.
    7. Fang Zhang & Zhengjun Zhang, 2020. "The tail dependence of the carbon markets: The implication of portfolio management," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-17, August.
    8. Su, Chi Wei & Wei, Shenkai & Wang, Yan & Tao, Ran, 2024. "How does climate policy uncertainty affect the carbon market?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    9. Chen, Linfei & Zhao, Xuefeng, 2024. "A multiscale and multivariable differentiated learning for carbon price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Chen, Huayi & Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2024. "Carbon volatility connectedness and the role of external uncertainties: Evidence from China," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    11. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Shi, Yukun & Mishra, Tapas & Yan, Cheng, 2021. "The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    12. Chang, Kai & Ye, Zhifang & Wang, Weihong, 2019. "Volatility spillover effect and dynamic correlation between regional emissions allowances and fossil energy markets: New evidence from China’s emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1314-1324.
    13. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Kim, Jihun, 2022. "The relationship between carbon-intensive fuel and renewable energy stock prices under the emissions trading system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ye, Shunxin & Han, Dong & Wang, Ping & He, Kaijian & Wei, Yi-Ming & Xie, Rui, 2019. "A multiscale analysis for carbon price drivers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 202-216.
    15. Tan, Xue-Ping & Wang, Xin-Yu, 2017. "Dependence changes between the carbon price and its fundamentals: A quantile regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 306-325.
    16. Huang, Wenyang & Zhao, Jianyu & Wang, Xiaokang, 2024. "Model-driven multimodal LSTM-CNN for unbiased structural forecasting of European Union allowances open-high-low-close price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Yaqi Wu & Chen Zhang & Po Yun & Dandan Zhu & Wei Cao & Zulfiqar Ali Wagan, 2021. "Time–frequency analysis of the interaction mechanism between European carbon and crude oil markets," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(7), pages 1331-1357, November.
    18. Yue Xu & Dayu Zhai, 2022. "Impact of Changes in Membership on Prices of a Unified Carbon Market: Case Study of the European Union Emissions Trading System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, October.
    19. Demiralay, Sercan & Gencer, Hatice Gaye & Bayraci, Selcuk, 2022. "Carbon credit futures as an emerging asset: Hedging, diversification and downside risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    20. Huang, Wenyang & Wang, Huiwen & Wei, Yigang, 2023. "Identifying the determinants of European carbon allowances prices: A novel robust partial least squares method for open-high-low-close data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:3:p:1198-:d:1582178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.