The Impact of Tourism on the Resilience of the Turkish Economy: An Asymmetric Approach

The impact of tourism on economic growth is a subject of interest to researchers as well as policy makers. Numerous studies have explored this relationship, often arriving at varying conclusions depending on the methods employed. Most of these studies, however, assume a symmetric relationship between tourism and economic growth. In this study, the Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test was used to test for short-run asymmetric causality between tourism receipts and economic growth in Turkey for the period 1990–2023, and unidirectional causality was found between the increase in tourism incomes and economic growth and between the decrease in tourism incomes and economic contraction. Additionally, the hidden co-integration test was applied to examine the asymmetric relationships between them in the long run, and the results reveal that an increase in tourism revenues provides resilience to the economy by mitigating contraction during economic downturns. This study contributes to the field by addressing the interaction of tourism and the economy in Turkey from an asymmetric perspective and by revealing previously unobserved relationships. The results provide partial support for the tourism-led growth hypothesis. In the long term, it is recommended that policymakers design tourism strategies aimed at enhancing resilience to economic shocks, thereby also strengthening the national economy. Diversified markets and products, well-structured incentives, and sustainable tourism practices are key elements in achieving this goal.