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Simulation of Development Strategies and Evaluation of Low-Carbon Development Level in Jiangsu Province under Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

Author

Listed:
  • Fanglin Li

    (School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China)

  • Yingjie Zhang

    (School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China)

Abstract

Studies on regional low-carbon development are essential for reducing air pollution, protecting human life and health, and environmental sustainability. In this article, after sorting the connotations of low-carbon development, the low-carbon development evaluation indicators system was constructed, and the entropy weighting method and improved analytic hierarchy process were applied to evaluate the low-carbon development level between 2007 and 2021 about Jiangsu Province, China. Also, the system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the low-carbon development process. The research findings show the following: (1) Low-carbon development in Jiangsu Province obtained some achievement; (2) “Coordination force” played the most crucial role in low-carbon development, while “growth force” and “transformation force” performed better; (3) The simulation results showed that the economic development type would be the most beneficial in the long run; the energy conservation type would be steadily developing and improving every year; and the green transformation type had a clear drive for low-carbon development at an early stage and the impact was rapid. The novelty of this paper includes the following: (1) The dimension division of the index system is novel; (2) The measurement method is novel. The weights of indicators are determined by a combination of the entropy weighting method and improved analytic hierarchy process; (3) The low-carbon development pathways of Jiangsu Province are studied by the system dynamics model. Different strategy conditions are innovatively designed, and simulations of the scenarios are carried out.

Suggested Citation

  • Fanglin Li & Yingjie Zhang, 2024. "Simulation of Development Strategies and Evaluation of Low-Carbon Development Level in Jiangsu Province under Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-25, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:4:p:1597-:d:1338745
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Shu Zhang & Wenying Chen, 2022. "Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Tan, Sieting & Yang, Jin & Yan, Jinyue & Lee, Chewtin & Hashim, Haslenda & Chen, Bin, 2017. "A holistic low carbon city indicator framework for sustainable development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1919-1930.
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