IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v376y2024ipas0306261924016416.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Carbon emission drivers of China's power sector and its transformation for global decarbonization contribution

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Laijun
  • Wang, Ke
  • Yi, Hongru
  • Cheng, Youfeng
  • Zhen, Juntao
  • Hu, Haisheng

Abstract

To explore the contribution of China's power sector transformation to global CO2 emission reduction and the potential for this sector to achieve peak carbon, we used a hybrid input–output model to explore the direct CO2 emissions of six power sectors classified by generation methods and their impact on CO2 emission by the non-power sector based on the total power sector output (electricity generation). We then used structural decomposition analysis to explore the drivers. From 2012 to 2021, the total indirect CO2 emissions of China's power sector grew from 138.59 Mt to 158.79 Mt (the share in the carbon footprint increased from 3.7% to 3.9%), an increase of 14.6%. Over the period from 2012 to 2021, the power structure effect consistently reduced direct and indirect CO2 emissions. Policy scenario simulations showed that 12 scenarios for 2035 are expected to achieve peak carbon in China's power sector. The transition of China's power sector to cleaner energy will contribute greatly to global CO2 reduction in all sectors. In scenarios APS-DER-LD and APS-DER-HD, where the power structure effect was strongest, China and other countries will simultaneously experience large decreases in carbon emission, with decreases of 43.5 and 36.6%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Laijun & Wang, Ke & Yi, Hongru & Cheng, Youfeng & Zhen, Juntao & Hu, Haisheng, 2024. "Carbon emission drivers of China's power sector and its transformation for global decarbonization contribution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:376:y:2024:i:pa:s0306261924016416
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924016416
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124258?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karmellos, M. & Kopidou, D. & Diakoulaki, D., 2016. "A decomposition analysis of the driving factors of CO2 (Carbon dioxide) emissions from the power sector in the European Union countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 680-692.
    2. Ma, Jia-Jun & Du, Gang & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2019. "CO2 emission changes of China's power generation system: Input-output subsystem analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Yuanying Chi & Wenbing Zhou & Songlin Tang & Yu Hu, 2022. "Driving Factors of CO 2 Emissions in China’s Power Industry: Relative Importance Analysis Based on Spatial Durbin Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, April.
    4. Wang, Changbo & Zhang, Lixiao & Chang, Yuan & Pang, Mingyue, 2015. "Biomass direct-fired power generation system in China: An integrated energy, GHG emissions, and economic evaluation for Salix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 155-165.
    5. Li, Ru & Tang, Bao-Jun & Yu, Biying & Liao, Hua & Zhang, Chen & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2022. "Cost-optimal operation strategy for integrating large scale of renewable energy in China’s power system: From a multi-regional perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    6. Zhao, Xiaoli & Yin, Haitao & Zhao, Yue, 2015. "Impact of environmental regulations on the efficiency and CO2 emissions of power plants in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 238-247.
    7. Shinichiro Fujimori & Volker Krey & Detlef Vuuren & Ken Oshiro & Masahiro Sugiyama & Puttipong Chunark & Bundit Limmeechokchai & Shivika Mittal & Osamu Nishiura & Chan Park & Salony Rajbhandari & Dieg, 2021. "A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(6), pages 472-480, June.
    8. Zeus Guevara & João F. D. Rodrigues, 2016. "Structural transitions and energy use: a decomposition analysis of Portugal 1995--2010," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 202-223, June.
    9. Wang, Yihan & Wen, Zongguo & Lv, Xiaojun & Zhu, Junming, 2023. "The regional discrepancies in the contribution of China’s thermal power plants toward the carbon peaking target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    10. Yang, Jin & Chen, Bin, 2016. "Emergy-based sustainability evaluation of wind power generation systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 239-246.
    11. Chen, Yulong & Zhao, Jincai & Lai, Zhizhu & Wang, Zheng & Xia, Haibin, 2019. "Exploring the effects of economic growth, and renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on China’s CO2 emissions: Evidence from a regional panel analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 341-353.
    12. Wan, Liyang & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2016. "Impacts on water consumption of power sector in major emitting economies under INDC and longer term mitigation scenarios: An input-output based hybrid approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 26-39.
    13. Handayani, Kamia & Anugrah, Pinto & Goembira, Fadjar & Overland, Indra & Suryadi, Beni & Swandaru, Akbar, 2022. "Moving beyond the NDCs: ASEAN pathways to a net-zero emissions power sector in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Li, Zheng, 2020. "Is more use of electricity leading to less carbon emission growth? An analysis with a panel threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Zhang, Hongxia & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. & Zheng, Xinye, 2019. "The effects of carbon taxation in China: An analysis based on energy input-output model in hybrid units," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 223-234.
    16. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Vaid, Devina, 2016. "Lower electricity prices and greenhouse gas emissions due to rooftop solar: empirical results for Massachusetts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 345-352.
    17. Bullard, Clark W. & Herendeen, Robert A., 1975. "The energy cost of goods and services," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 268-278, December.
    18. Shu Zhang & Wenying Chen, 2022. "Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Bin Su & B. W. Ang, 2012. "Structural Decomposition Analysis Applied To Energy And Emissions: Aggregation Issues," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 299-317, March.
    20. Sören Lindner & Dabo Guan, 2014. "A Hybrid-Unit Energy Input-Output Model to Evaluate Embodied Energy and Life Cycle Emissions for China's Economy," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 18(2), pages 201-211, April.
    21. Su, Bin & Ang, B.W., 2012. "Structural decomposition analysis applied to energy and emissions: Some methodological developments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 177-188.
    22. Jing Meng & Zhifu Mi & Dabo Guan & Jiashuo Li & Shu Tao & Yuan Li & Kuishuang Feng & Junfeng Liu & Zhu Liu & Xuejun Wang & Qiang Zhang & Steven J. Davis, 2018. "The rise of South–South trade and its effect on global CO2 emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, December.
    23. Liu, Tong & Xu, Gang & Cai, Peng & Tian, Longhu & Huang, Qili, 2011. "Development forecast of renewable energy power generation in China and its influence on the GHG control strategy of the country," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1284-1292.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ma, Jia-Jun & Du, Gang & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2019. "CO2 emission changes of China's power generation system: Input-output subsystem analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-12.
    2. Huang, Rui & Chen, Guangwu & Lv, Guonian & Malik, Arunima & Shi, Xunpeng & Xie, Xiaotian, 2020. "The effect of technology spillover on CO2 emissions embodied in China-Australia trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Zeus Guevara & Oscar Córdoba & Edith X. M. García & Rafael Bouchain, 2017. "The Status and Evolution of Energy Supply and Use in Mexico Prior to the 2014 Energy Reform: An Input-Output Approach †," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, March.
    4. Lach, Łukasz, 2022. "Optimization based structural decomposition analysis as a tool for supporting environmental policymaking," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Guevara, Zeus & Domingos, Tiago, 2017. "The multi-factor energy input–output model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 261-269.
    6. Zhang, Pengfei & Cai, Wenqiu & Yao, Mingtao & Wang, Zhiyou & Yang, Luzhen & Wei, Wendong, 2020. "Urban carbon emissions associated with electricity consumption in Beijing and the driving factors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    7. Yuhuan Zhao & Hao Li & Zhonghua Zhang & Yongfeng Zhang & Song Wang & Ya Liu, 2017. "Decomposition and scenario analysis of CO2 emissions in China’s power industry: based on LMDI method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(2), pages 645-668, March.
    8. Guevara, Zeus & Domingos, Tiago, 2017. "Three-level decoupling of energy use in Portugal 1995–2010," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 134-142.
    9. Guevara, Zeus & Henriques, SofiaTeives & Sousa, Tânia, 2021. "Driving factors of differences in primary energy intensities of 14 European countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Sun, Xiaoqi & Liu, Xiaojia, 2020. "Decomposition analysis of debt’s impact on China’s energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Yun-Hsun Huang & Jung-Hua Wu & Hao-Syuan Huang, 2021. "Analyzing the Driving Forces behind CO 2 Emissions in Energy-Resource-Poor and Fossil-Fuel-Centered Economies: Case Studies from Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-14, August.
    12. Aramendia, Emmanuel & Heun, Matthew K. & Brockway, Paul E. & Taylor, Peter G., 2022. "Developing a Multi-Regional Physical Supply Use Table framework to improve the accuracy and reliability of energy analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    13. Tharinya Supasa & Shu-San Hsiau & Shih-Mo Lin & Wongkot Wongsapai & Jiunn-Chi Wu, 2017. "Household Energy Consumption Behaviour for Different Demographic Regions in Thailand from 2000 to 2010," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, December.
    14. Yan, Junna & Su, Bin, 2020. "What drive the changes in China's energy consumption and intensity during 12th Five-Year Plan period?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Román-Collado, Rocío & Colinet, Maria José, 2018. "Is energy efficiency a driver or an inhibitor of energy consumption changes in Spain? Two decomposition approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 409-417.
    16. Hawkins, Jacob & Ma, Chunbo & Schilizzi, Steven & Zhang, Fan, 2015. "Promises and pitfalls in environmentally extended input–output analysis for China: A survey of the literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 81-88.
    17. Ang, B.W. & Su, Bin & Wang, H., 2016. "A spatial–temporal decomposition approach to performance assessment in energy and emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 112-121.
    18. Bagheri, Mehdi & Guevara, Zeus & Alikarami, Mohammad & Kennedy, Christopher A. & Doluweera, Ganesh, 2018. "Green growth planning: A multi-factor energy input-output analysis of the Canadian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 708-720.
    19. Moreau, Vincent & Vuille, François, 2018. "Decoupling energy use and economic growth: Counter evidence from structural effects and embodied energy in trade," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 54-62.
    20. Yan, Yunfeng & Li, Xiyuan & Wang, Ran & Zhao, Zhongxiu & Jiao, Aodong, 2023. "Decomposing the carbon footprints of multinational enterprises along global value chains," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 13-28.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:376:y:2024:i:pa:s0306261924016416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.