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Development of Risk Quantification Models in Road Infrastructure Projects

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandar Senić

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Momčilo Dobrodolac

    (Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Zoran Stojadinović

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

Abstract

Road infrastructure is a significant factor in the development of any country, affecting economic growth, social development, and environmental sustainability. Large infrastructure projects often face significant risks and uncertainties, which can lead to delays, budget over-runs, and an insufficient quality of the completed work. These issues undermine the economic viability of projects and affect the overall efficiency of infrastructure development. For these reasons, based on a literature review and completed project analysis, the risks that lead to an increasing Contract Price (ICP) and an Extension of Time (EoT) for the construction of the project are identified. Based on the results of the completed project analysis, the values of the ICP and EoT were quantified. Also, the probability of the occurrence of each risk in new projects was calculated. Based on the obtained results, a model was defined that groups risks into clusters. Risks in the first cluster should have priority for funding, and preventive measures are defined for them. The model obtained in this way can greatly enhance project management in real-world conditions and can lead to a significant reduction in project time and budget over-runs.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandar Senić & Momčilo Dobrodolac & Zoran Stojadinović, 2024. "Development of Risk Quantification Models in Road Infrastructure Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:17:p:7694-:d:1471377
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shou Qing Wang & Mohammed Fadhil Dulaimi & Muhammad Yousuf Aguria, 2004. "Risk management framework for construction projects in developing countries," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 237-252.
    2. Satish Kumar Viswanathan & Kamalendra Kumar Tripathi & Kumar Neeraj Jha, 2020. "Influence of risk mitigation measures on international construction project success criteria – a survey of Indian experiences," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 207-222, March.
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