IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i12p5036-d1414000.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From Individual Motivation to Geospatial Epidemiology: A Novel Approach Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Agent-Based Modeling for Large-Scale Disease Spread

Author

Listed:
  • Zhenlei Song

    (Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77840, USA)

  • Zhe Zhang

    (Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77840, USA)

  • Fangzheng Lyu

    (Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA)

  • Michael Bishop

    (Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77840, USA)

  • Jikun Liu

    (Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77840, USA)

  • Zhaohui Chi

    (Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77840, USA)

Abstract

In the past few years, there have been many studies addressing the simulation of COVID-19’s spatial transmission model of infectious disease in time. However, very few studies have focused on the effect of the epidemic environment variables in which an individual lives on the individual’s behavioral logic leading to changes in the overall epidemic transmission trend at larger scales. In this study, we applied Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to modeling individual behavioral logistics, combined with Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) to perform “Susceptible—Exposed—Infectious—Removed” (SEIR) simulation of the independent individual behavior affecting the overall trend change. Our objective was to simulate the spatiotemporal spread of diseases using the Bengaluru Urban District, India as a case study. The results show that the simulation results are highly consistent with the observed reality, in terms of trends, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value of 0.39. Notably, our approach reveals a subtle link between individual motivation and infection-recovery dynamics, highlighting how individual behavior can significantly impact broader patterns of transmission. These insights have potential implications for epidemiologic strategies and public health interventions, providing data-driven insights into behavioral impacts on epidemic spread. By integrating behavioral modeling with epidemic simulation, our study underscores the importance of considering individual and collective behavior in designing sustainable public health policies and interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenlei Song & Zhe Zhang & Fangzheng Lyu & Michael Bishop & Jikun Liu & Zhaohui Chi, 2024. "From Individual Motivation to Geospatial Epidemiology: A Novel Approach Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Agent-Based Modeling for Large-Scale Disease Spread," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-15, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:12:p:5036-:d:1414000
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/12/5036/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/12/5036/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hafsah Saeed & Ardalan Eslami & Najah T. Nassif & Ann M. Simpson & Sara Lal, 2022. "Anxiety Linked to COVID-19: A Systematic Review Comparing Anxiety Rates in Different Populations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-26, February.
    2. Valerie Bauza & Gloria D. Sclar & Alokananda Bisoyi & Ajilé Owens & Apurva Ghugey & Thomas Clasen, 2021. "Experience of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Rural Odisha, India: Knowledge, Preventative Actions, and Impacts on Daily Life," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-17, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anuradha Mathrani & Rahila Umer & Tarushikha Sarvesh & Janak Adhikari, 2023. "Rural–Urban, Gender, and Digital Divides during the COVID-19 Lockdown: A Multi-Layered Study," Societies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Stéphanie Bourion-Bédès & Hélène Rousseau & Martine Batt & Pascale Tarquinio & Romain Lebreuilly & Christine Sorsana & Karine Legrand & Rabah Machane & Cyril Tarquinio & Cédric Baumann, 2022. "Mental Health Status of French School-Aged Children’s Parents during the COVID-19 Lockdown and Its Associated Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-13, September.
    3. Brice Richez & Coralie Cantarel & Françoise Durrieu & Isabelle Soubeyran & Julie Blanchi & Simon Pernot & Camille Chakiba Brugère & Guilhem Roubaud & Sophie Cousin & Gabriel Etienne & Anne Floquet & F, 2023. "One-Year Follow-Up of Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Anxiety among Health Workers of a French Cancer Center: The PRO-SERO-COV Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(11), pages 1-14, May.
    4. Atte Oksanen & Reetta Oksa & Magdalena Celuch & Anica Cvetkovic & Iina Savolainen, 2022. "COVID-19 Anxiety and Wellbeing at Work in Finland during 2020–2022: A 5-Wave Longitudinal Survey Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Sangeeta Chatterji & Lotus McDougal & Nicole Johns & Mohan Ghule & Namratha Rao & Anita Raj, 2021. "COVID-19-Related Financial Hardship, Job Loss, and Mental Health Symptoms: Findings from a Cross-Sectional Study in a Rural Agrarian Community in India," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-15, August.
    6. Ratchadaporn Papwijitsil & Hathairat Kosiyaporn & Pigunkaew Sinam & Mathudara Phaiyarom & Sataporn Julchoo & Rapeepong Suphanchaimat, 2021. "Factors Related to Health Risk Communication Outcomes among Migrant Workers in Thailand during COVID-19: A Case Study of Three Provinces," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-15, October.
    7. Kaio Vinícius Paiva Albarado & Iani Dias Lauer-Leite & Dennison Célio de Oliveira Carvalho & Thiago Almeida Vieira, 2022. "Well-Being and Stress of Children in Teaching by Digital Means during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case in Santarém, Brazilian Amazonia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Tyrone B. Pretorius & Anita Padmanabhanunni, 2023. "Anxiety in Brief: Assessment of the Five-Item Trait Scale of the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory in South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(9), pages 1-12, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:12:p:5036-:d:1414000. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.