IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i9p7614-d1140236.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Saudi Fertilizers and Their Impact on Global Food Security: Present and Future

Author

Listed:
  • Abda Emam

    (Department of Agribusiness and Consumer Sciences, College of Agriculture and Food Sciences, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi Arabia
    Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Studies, Sudan University of Science and Technology, Khartoum P.O. Box 13317, Sudan)

Abstract

This study was designed to assess the long-run association between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and world export fertilizer (urea and DAP) prices. It also aims to disclose the effect of KSA fertilizer export quantities on global food security. KSA and world fertilizer prices and quantities were collected from various sources for the period ranging from 2002 to 2020. The results from the autoregressive distributed lag bounds and Engle–Granger two-step procedure tests discovered that there are long-run associations between KSA and world urea and DAP prices, respectively. Fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares model results were compatible with the results of the autoregressive distributed lag model. From the ECM results, the coefficient of adjustment parameter for KSA urea and DAP prices (as a dependent variable) proved positive and insignificant, leading to the conclusion that the model was powerless to right its previous time instability. This may be due to the short time interval of the series under study, and indicate that it requires more than 12 months to return to its long-run equilibrium. Likewise, the results showed that KSA fertilizer (urea and DAP) export quantities have a positive, highly significant impact on world urea and DAP export quantities. Reference to forecasting analysis results, the growth rates of urea exports quantities equal to 0.002 and 0.004 for the period from 2002 to 2018 and from 2019 to 2026, respectively. In addition, the growth rates of DAP export quantities equal to 0.45 and 0.07 for the period 2002 to 2018 and for the forecast period 2019 to 2026, respectively. With reference to KSA fertilizer exports, the importer countries rank among the main countries producing wheat, sorghum, maize, rice, and millet (chief food crops) in the world, showing that the KSA fertilizer (urea and DAP) export quantities contribute directly to global food security through fertilizer exportation and indirectly through the contribution of the importer’s countries in production of chief food crops. Recommendations drawn from the results are to increase the contribution of the KSA to global food security through lowering the time required to absorb fertilizer price shocks in the world (less than 12 months) and increase the KSA’s fertilizer export quantities.

Suggested Citation

  • Abda Emam, 2023. "Saudi Fertilizers and Their Impact on Global Food Security: Present and Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:9:p:7614-:d:1140236
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/9/7614/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/9/7614/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saeed Nosratabadi & Nesrine Khazami & Marwa Ben Abdallah & Zoltan Lackner & Shahab S. Band & Amir Mosavi & Csaba Mako, 2020. "Social Capital Contributions to Food Security: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Papers 2012.03606, arXiv.org.
    2. Mawuna Donald Houessou & Annemijn Cassee & Ben G. J. S. Sonneveld, 2021. "The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Security in Rural and Urban Settlements in Benin: Do Allotment Gardens Soften the Blow?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Emiliano Magrini & Mauro Vigani, 2016. "Technology adoption and the multiple dimensions of food security: the case of maize in Tanzania," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(4), pages 707-726, August.
    4. Uwacu Alban Singirankabo & Maurits Willem Ertsen, 2020. "Relations between Land Tenure Security and Agricultural Productivity: Exploring the Effect of Land Registration," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Andrew Allee & Lee R. Lynd & Vikrant Vaze, 2021. "Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(5), pages 1245-1261, October.
    6. Arlette Saint Ville & June Yee Tsun Po & Akankasha Sen & Anh Bui & Hugo Melgar-Quiñonez, 2019. "Food security and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES): ensuring progress by 2030," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(3), pages 483-491, June.
    7. Jenderedjian, Anna & Bellows, Anne C., 2021. "Rural poverty, violence, and power: Rejecting and endorsing gender mainstreaming by food security NGOs in Armenia and Georgia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. David Laborde & Simla Tokgoz & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Long-Term Drivers of Food and Nutrition Security," FOODSECURE Working papers 6, LEI Wageningen UR.
    9. Ahmad, Najid & Du, Liangsheng & Lu, Jiye & Wang, Jianlin & Li, Hong-Zhou & Hashmi, Muhammad Zaffar, 2017. "Modelling the CO2 emissions and economic growth in Croatia: Is there any environmental Kuznets curve?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 164-172.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    11. Morteza Akbari & Pantea Foroudi & Mohana Shahmoradi & Hamid Padash & Zahra Shahabaldini Parizi & Ala Khosravani & Pouria Ataei & Maria Teresa Cuomo, 2022. "The Evolution of Food Security: Where Are We Now, Where Should We Go Next?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-27, March.
    12. Xue Zhai & Zhongyuan Geng & Xue Zhang, 2013. "Two-Stage Dynamic Test of The Determinants of the Long-Run Decline of China's Monetary Velocity," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 23-40, May.
    13. Meital Izraelov & Jacques Silber, 2019. "An assessment of the global food security index," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(5), pages 1135-1152, October.
    14. Anghinoni, Guilherme & Anghinoni, Fernanda Brunetta Godinho & Tormena, Cássio Antonio & Braccini, Alessandro Lucca & de Carvalho Mendes, Ieda & Zancanaro, Leandro & Lal, Rattan, 2021. "Conservation agriculture strengthen sustainability of Brazilian grain production and food security," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Jae Yeon Park & Arlette Saint Ville & Timothy Schwinghamer & Hugo Melgar-Quiñonez, 2019. "Heterogeneous factors predict food insecurity among the elderly in developed countries: insights from a multi-national analysis of 48 countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(3), pages 541-552, June.
    16. Eric Monke & Todd Petzel, 1984. "Market Integration: An Application to International Trade in Cotton," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(4), pages 481-487.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abda Emam & Hassan Ali-Dinar, 2024. "Tourism’s Influence on Economic Growth and Environment in Saudi: Present and Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Ozgur Bor & Nihat Dagistan, 2024. "The impact of fluctuating international fertiliser prices and exchange rates on domestic fertiliser prices in Türkiye," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 70(1), pages 12-23.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Allee & Lee R. Lynd & Vikrant Vaze, 2021. "Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(5), pages 1245-1261, October.
    2. Abda Emam, 2022. "Present and future: Does agriculture affect economic growth and the environment in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia?," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 68(10), pages 380-392.
    3. Hanna Dudek & Joanna Myszkowska-Ryciak & Agnieszka Wojewódzka-Wiewiórska, 2021. "Profiles of Food Insecurity: Similarities and Differences across Selected CEE Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Koçak Emrah & Uzay Nısfet, 2019. "The effect of financial development on income inequality in Turkey: An estimate of the Greenwood-Jovanovic hypothesis," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 319-344, December.
    5. Nor Salwati Othman & Nurul Hezlin Mohamed Hariri, 2021. "Estimating the Causality and Elasticities of Residential Electricity Consumption for Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 335-346.
    6. Luqman, Muhammad & Ahmad, Najid & Bakhsh, Khuda, 2019. "Nuclear energy, renewable energy and economic growth in Pakistan: Evidence from non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1299-1309.
    7. Abda Emam & Hassan Ali-Dinar, 2024. "Tourism’s Influence on Economic Growth and Environment in Saudi: Present and Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-17, November.
    8. Eyup Dogan & Nigar Taspinar & Korhan K Gokmenoglu, 2019. "Determinants of ecological footprint in MINT countries," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(6), pages 1065-1086, September.
    9. Zaman, Shah & Zaman, Qamar uz & Zhang, Leilei & Wang, Zilong & Jehan, Noor, 2022. "Interaction between agricultural production, female employment, renewable energy, and environmental quality: Policy directions in context of developing economies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 288-298.
    10. Zhihui Lv & Amanda M. Y. Chu & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Modelling Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, and Fossil Fuel Consumption in China: Cointegration and Multivariate Causality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-35, October.
    11. Manga, Muge & Cengiz, Orhan & Destek, Mehmet Akif, 2022. "Is export quality a viable option for sustainable development paths of Asian countries?," MPRA Paper 117552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kurniawan, Robi & Managi, Shunsuke, 2018. "Coal consumption, urbanization, and trade openness linkage in Indonesia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 576-583.
    13. Anh-Tu Nguyen & Shih-Hao Lu & Phuc Thanh Thien Nguyen, 2021. "Validating and Forecasting Carbon Emissions in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Case of Vietnam," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-38, May.
    14. Quan-Hoang Vuong & Manh-Tung Ho & Hong-Kong To Nguyen & Minh-Hoang Nguyen, 2019. "The trilemma of sustainable industrial growth: evidence from a piloting OECD’s Green city," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Muhammad Uzair Ali & Zhimin Gong & Muhammad Ubaid Ali & Xiong Wu & Chen Yao, 2021. "Fossil energy consumption, economic development, inward FDI impact on CO2 emissions in Pakistan: Testing EKC hypothesis through ARDL model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3210-3221, July.
    16. Bekhet, Hussain Ali & Othman, Nor Salwati, 2018. "The role of renewable energy to validate dynamic interaction between CO2 emissions and GDP toward sustainable development in Malaysia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 47-61.
    17. Sethi, Pradeepta & Chakrabarti, Debkumar & Bhattacharjee, Sankalpa, 2020. "Globalization, financial development and economic growth: Perils on the environmental sustainability of an emerging economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 520-535.
    18. Hung-Ming Wu, 2020. "The impact of non-clean energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from symmetric and asymmetric analyses in the US," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(2), pages 291-307, March.
    19. Zhanar Yeszhanova & Nazym Zaitenova, 2023. "Food Security of the Republic of Kazakhstan: Assessment of Public Satisfaction with Locally Produced Food," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 16-31.
    20. Eva Matejková & Mária Májek & Artan Qineti & Zlata Sojková, 2024. "Comparative analysis of European Union countries based on selected aspects of food security," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 70(6), pages 265-278.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:9:p:7614-:d:1140236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.