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China’s Socioeconomic and CO 2 Status Concerning Future Land-Use Change under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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  • Jian Zhou

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Shan Jiang

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Sanjit Kumar Mondal

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Jinlong Huang

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Buda Su

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    Meteorology Lab, Faculty of Environmental Engineering and Mechanical Engineering, Poznan University of Life Sciences, 60-809 Poznan, Poland)

  • Ziyan Chen

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Runhong Xu

    (School of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810016, China)

  • Tong Jiang

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

Abstract

China has experienced a huge socioeconomic advancement over the past few decades, resulting in great change in land use and land cover. To date, negligible attention has been given to examining the socioeconomic changes in the context of land-use change, especially from a futuristic standpoint. However, motivated by China’s latest carbon neutrality target, this study analyzes the prospective changes in socioeconomic status, and carbon dioxide emission in the context of future land-use change, focusing on three future periods: 2026–2030 (carbon dioxide peak phase), 2056–2060 (carbon-neutral phase), and 2080–2099 (long-term period). In this regard, recently published land-use products under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-based scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) as part of the CMIP6, as well as the projected GDP and population under five socioeconomic scenarios are used. To estimate socioeconomic change over prominent land-use types (urban), we combined five socioeconomic scenarios with seven corresponding SSPs-based land-use change scenarios (SSP1 with SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6; SSP2 with SSP2-4.5; SSP3 with SSP3-7.0; SSP4 with SSP4-3.4 and SSP4-6.0; and SSP5 with SSP5-8.5 scenarios). Our results reveal that rapid urban land expansion in the future is the most dominant aspect in China. In the carbon neutrality phase (2056–2060), urban land is expected to expand ~80% more than that of the reference period (1995–2014). In the spatial aspect, the expansion of urban land is mainly prominent in the eastern and central parts of China. For socioeconomic changes, the most prominent increase in the urban population is estimated at 630.8% under SSP5-8.5 for the 2056–2060 period compared to the reference period. Regarding GDP for the urban area, industrial GDP will be higher than service GDP in the carbon emission peak phase (2026–2030), but it is projected to be overtaken by service GDP for the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) and long-term periods (2080–2099). Further, the CO 2 emission in China was found to increase with intensified urban land for the historical period (1995–2019). In the future, the largest increase in CO 2 emission from the urban area is anticipated under SSP5-8.5 in the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) phase, while CO 2 emission will largely decline after (2056–2060) under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, and SSP4-3.4. Importantly, population change is expected to be the most predominant factor in future urban land expansion in China. These findings highlight the importance of well-governed urban-land development as a key measure to achieve China’s carbon neutrality goal.

Suggested Citation

  • Jian Zhou & Shan Jiang & Sanjit Kumar Mondal & Jinlong Huang & Buda Su & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz & Ziyan Chen & Runhong Xu & Tong Jiang, 2022. "China’s Socioeconomic and CO 2 Status Concerning Future Land-Use Change under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:5:p:3065-:d:765259
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