Dynamic evolution and simulation of habitat quality in arid regions: A case study of the Hexi region, China

Habitat quality is an important characterization of the health level of ecosystems. Unreasonable development activities have led to a degradation in habitat quality and loss of biodiversity, especially in the arid areas of northwest China where the ecological environment is fragile. In this study, we focused on the arid area in northwestern China (Hexi region). By integrating the InVEST model and PLUS model, we evaluated the dynamics of habitat quality in the Hexi region from 1990 to 2020 under the background of land use change, and simulated the habitat quality in this area in 2030 under different scenarios. The results showed that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the areas of farmland, waterbodies, and built-up land increased by 2343.26 km2, 416.42 km2 and 739.28 km2 respectively, and the area of unutilized land decreased by 3020.36 km2. In terms of changes in land use type, unutilized land changed the most. (2) From 1990 to 2020, the habitat quality increased by 1.07 %, spatially showed a high distribution pattern along the Qilian Mountains and a low distribution pattern in the remaining area. The spatial change was dominated by stabilization, and the rank change was mainly from poor habitat quality areas to good habitat quality areas. (3) Under the scenario of natural development (ND), the future built-up land area will rapidly increase by 989 km2. In the ecological protection (EP) scenario, the areas of forest and grassland will increase by 10476 km2, the expansion of cultivated land and built-up land will be effectively curbed, and the habitat quality will be greatly improved. (4) In 2020–2030 (ND scenario), land use change will cause a certain degree of degradation of habitat quality. In 2020–2030 (EP scenario), land use change will promote the improvement of habitat quality. In addition, through this study, we provide a new method to quantify the relationship between land use and habitat quality.