IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i3p1842-d742825.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 Pandemic, Technological Progress and Food Security Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Xinyue Lin

    (School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Lingli Qi

    (Energy Center, University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand)

  • Haoran Pan

    (Center for Innovation and Development Studies, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China)

  • Basil Sharp

    (Energy Center, University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand)

Abstract

The global spread of COVID-19 has complicated the international equilibrium of grain production and trade. China now faces external shocks in the international grain market and deep-seated problems associated with the structure of domestic supply. We used a dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse the effects on China’s food security and macroeconomics under the COVID-19 scenario and four technological progress paths in the agricultural sector. We showed that the COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting China’s food security in the short term, and critical quantitative variables such as grain production and grain consumption per capita have declined. Considering food security and macroeconomic development, labour-saving technological progress outperformed neutral technological progress, land-saving technological progress, and capital-saving technological progress in the short run. While land-saving technological progress contributes the most to the arable land area per capita of wheat and other grains in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinyue Lin & Lingli Qi & Haoran Pan & Basil Sharp, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Technological Progress and Food Security Based on a Dynamic CGE Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1842-:d:742825
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1842/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1842/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Schiersch & Heike Belitz & Martin Gornig, 2015. "Why is TFP growth sectorally concentrated?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(55), pages 5933-5944, November.
    2. Pinar Celikkol Geylani & Spiro Stefanou, 2011. "Productivity growth patterns in US dairy products manufacturing plants," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(24), pages 3415-3432.
    3. Xin Deng & Miao Zeng & Dingde Xu & Yanbin Qi, 2020. "Does Social Capital Help to Reduce Farmland Abandonment? Evidence from Big Survey Data in Rural China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    5. Ahmed, Firoz & Islam, Asad & Pakrashi, Debayan & Rahman, Tabassum & Siddique, Abu, 2021. "Determinants and dynamics of food insecurity during COVID-19 in rural Bangladesh," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. V. Vandenberghe, 2017. "The productivity challenge. What to expect from better-quality labour and capital inputs?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(40), pages 4013-4025, August.
    7. Jin Xu & Weixian Wei, 2021. "The effects of tax and fee reduction policy on mitigating shock of the COVID-19 epidemic in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(46), pages 5303-5318, October.
    8. Jayson Beckman & Amanda M. Countryman, 2021. "The Importance of Agriculture in the Economy: Impacts from COVID‐19," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1595-1611, October.
    9. Donghyun Oh & Almas Heshmati & Hans Lööf, 2012. "Technical change and total factor productivity growth for Swedish manufacturing and service industries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(18), pages 2373-2391, June.
    10. Dixon Peter B & Lee Bumsoo & Muehlenbeck Todd & Rimmer Maureen T. & Rose Adam & Verikios George, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    11. Chen, Shuzhang & Oxley, Les & Xu, Zheng & Wang, Yanqing & Ma, Hengyun, 2013. "The dynamic adjustment of factor inputs and its policy implications for major wheat producing areas in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 450-457.
    12. J. R. Hicks, 1963. "The Theory of Wages," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-00189-7, December.
    13. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 7-72, March.
    14. Xianhua Wu & Ji Guo, 2021. "Comprehensive Economic Loss Assessment of Disaster Based on CGE Model and IO model—A Case Study on Beijing “7.21 Rainstorm”," Springer Books, in: Economic Impacts and Emergency Management of Disasters in China, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 105-136, Springer.
    15. Máximo Torero, 2020. "Without food, there can be no exit from the pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 580(7805), pages 588-589, April.
    16. Victor Ginsburgh & Michiel Keyzer, 2002. "The Structure of Applied General Equilibrium Models," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262571579, April.
    17. Hertel, Thomas W., 2002. "Applied general equilibrium analysis of agricultural and resource policies," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 26, pages 1373-1419, Elsevier.
    18. Janet Fleetwood, 2020. "Social Justice, Food Loss, and the Sustainable Development Goals in the Era of COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-9, June.
    19. B. Lahcen & J. Brusselaers & K. Vrancken & Y. Dams & C. Silva Paes & J. Eyckmans & S. Rousseau, 2020. "Green Recovery Policies for the COVID-19 Crisis: Modelling the Impact on the Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 731-750, August.
    20. Daron Acemoglu, 2007. "Equilibrium Bias of Technology," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1371-1409, September.
    21. Dieter Helm, 2020. "The Environmental Impacts of the Coronavirus," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(1), pages 21-38, May.
    22. Nin, Alejandro & Arndt, Channing & Preckel, Paul V., 2003. "Is agricultural productivity in developing countries really shrinking? New evidence using a modified nonparametric approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 395-415, August.
    23. Kakali Mukhopadhyay & Paul J. Thomassin & Jingyuan Zhang, 2018. "Food security in China at 2050: a global CGE exercise," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, December.
    24. Cristiano Antonelli & Francesco Quatraro, 2010. "The effects of biased technological change on total factor productivity: empirical evidence from a sample of OECD countries," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 361-383, August.
    25. Richard Barichello, 2020. "The COVID‐19 pandemic: Anticipating its effects on Canada's agricultural trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 219-224, June.
    26. Xianhua Wu & Ji Guo, 2021. "Economic Impacts and Emergency Management of Disasters in China," Springer Books, Springer, edition 1, number 978-981-16-1319-7, July.
    27. Adjognon, Guigonan Serge & Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Sanoh, Aly, 2021. "The coronavirus pandemic and food security: Evidence from Mali," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    28. Key, Nigel, 2019. "Farm size and productivity growth in the United States Corn Belt," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 186-195.
    29. Zhan, Yue & Chen, Kevin Z., 2021. "Building resilient food system amidst COVID-19: Responses and lessons from China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    30. Sangho Kim & Hyunjoon Lim & Donghyun Park, 2009. "Imports, exports and total factor productivity in Korea," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(14), pages 1819-1834.
    31. Yong-sheng Wang, 2019. "The Challenges and Strategies of Food Security under Rapid Urbanization in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-11, January.
    32. Lu Guo & Zhimin Dai, 2021. "Study of total factor productivity on China’s science and technology service industry: provincial efficiency comparatively using 2010-2019 data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(51), pages 5917-5928, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nathalie Chusseau & Michel Dumont, 2012. "Growing Income Inequalities in Advanced," Working Papers hal-00993359, HAL.
    2. Jiang, Shiqi & Lin, Xinyue & Qi, Lingli & Zhang, Yongqiang & Sharp, Basil, 2022. "The macro-economic and CO2 emissions impacts of COVID-19 and recovery policies in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 981-996.
    3. Florian Brugger & Christian Gehrke, 2017. "The Neoclassical Approach to Induced Technical Change: From Hicks to Acemoglu," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 730-776, November.
    4. David Hémous & Morten Olsen, 2022. "The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 179-223, January.
    5. Carlos Medina & Christian Posso, 2010. "Technical Change and Polarization of the Labor Market: Evidence for Brazil, Colombia and Mexico," Borradores de Economia 614, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Hugo S. Gonçalves & Sérgio Moro, 2023. "On the economic impacts of COVID‐19: A text mining literature analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 375-394, February.
    7. Shiyuan Pan & Heng-fu Zou & Tailong Li, 2010. "Patent Protection, Technological Change and Wage Inequality," CEMA Working Papers 437, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    8. Yanguas Parra, Paola & Hauenstein, Christian & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2021. "The death valley of coal – Modelling COVID-19 recovery scenarios for steam coal markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    9. Hammond, James & Siegal, Kim & Milner, Daniel & Elimu, Emmanuel & Vail, Taylor & Cathala, Paul & Gatera, Arsene & Karim, Azfar & Lee, Ja-Eun & Douxchamps, Sabine & Tu, Mai Thanh & Ouma, Emily & Lukuyu, 2022. "Perceived effects of COVID-19 restrictions on smallholder farmers: Evidence from seven lower- and middle-income countries," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    10. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    11. Sadananda Prusty & Anubha & Saurabh Gupta, 2021. "On the Road to Recovery: The Role of Post-Lockdown Stimulus Package," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 11(2), pages 206-224, June.
    12. Liu, Li-Jing & Yao, Yun-Fei & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Qian, Xiang-Yan & Xu, Chun-Lei & Wei, Si-Yi & Creutzig, Felix & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Combining economic recovery with climate change mitigation: A global evaluation of financial instruments," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-453.
    13. Deriu, S. & Cassar, I.P. & Pretaroli, R. & Socci, C., 2022. "The economic impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Sardinia," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    14. Pi, Jiancai & Zhang, Pengqing, 2018. "Skill-biased technological change and wage inequality in developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 347-362.
    15. Po-Chi Chen & Ming-Miin Yu, 2014. "Total factor productivity growth and directions of technical change bias: evidence from 99 OECD and non-OECD countries," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 214(1), pages 143-165, March.
    16. Feng, Chun-Chiang & Chang, Kuei-Feng & Lin, Jin-Xu & Lee, Tsung-Chen & Lin, Shih-Mo, 2022. "Toward green transition in the post Paris Agreement era: The case of Taiwan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    17. Verena Preusse & Manuel Santos Silva & Linda Steinhübel & Meike Wollni, 2024. "Covid‐19 and agricultural labor supply: Evidence from the rural–urban interface of an Indian mega‐city," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 391-415, April.
    18. De Bruin, Kelly & Monaghan, Eoin & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2020. "The environmental and economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the Irish economy: An application of the I3E model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS106.
    19. Paul Malliet & Frédéric Reynès & Gissela Landa & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Aurélien Saussay, 2020. "Assessing Short-Term and Long-Term Economic and Environmental Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis in France," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 867-883, August.
    20. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Lubica Laslopova & Olesia Zeynalova, 2020. "Skilled and Unskilled Labor Are Less Substitutable than Commonly Thought," Working Papers IES 2020/29, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2020.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1842-:d:742825. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.