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Multi-Scale Remaining Useful Life Prediction Using Long Short-Term Memory

Author

Listed:
  • Youdao Wang

    (School of Aerospace, Transport and Manufacturing, Cranfield University, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK)

  • Yifan Zhao

    (School of Aerospace, Transport and Manufacturing, Cranfield University, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK)

Abstract

Predictive maintenance based on performance degradation is a crucial way to reduce maintenance costs and potential failures in modern complex engineering systems. Reliable remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is the main criterion for decision-making in predictive maintenance. Conventional model-based methods and data-driven approaches often fail to achieve an accurate prediction result using a single model for a complex system featuring multiple components and operational conditions, as the degradation pattern is usually nonlinear and time-varying. This paper proposes a novel multi-scale RUL prediction approach adopting the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. In the feature engineering phase, Pearson’s correlation coefficient is applied to extract the representative features, and an operation-based data normalisation approach is presented to deal with the cases where multiple degradation patterns are concealed in the sensor data. Then, a three-stage RUL target function is proposed, which segments the degradation process of the system into the non-degradation stage, the transition stage, and the linear degradation stage. The classification of these three stages is regarded as the small-scale RUL prediction, and it is achieved through processing sensor signals after the feature engineering using a novel LSTM-based binary classification algorithm combined with a correlation method. After that, a specific LSTM-based predictive model is built for the last two stages to produce a large-scale RUL prediction. The proposed approach is validated by comparing it with several state-of-the-art techniques based on the widely used C-MAPSS dataset. A significant improvement is achieved in RUL prediction performance in most subsets. For instance, a 40% reduction is achieved in Root Mean Square Error over the best existing method in subset FD001. Another contribution of the multi-scale RUL prediction approach is that it offers more degree of flexibility of prediction in the maintenance strategy depending on data availability and which degradation stage the system is in.

Suggested Citation

  • Youdao Wang & Yifan Zhao, 2022. "Multi-Scale Remaining Useful Life Prediction Using Long Short-Term Memory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:23:p:15667-:d:983396
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Yong & Xin, Yuqi & Liu, Zhi-wei & Chi, Ming & Ma, Guijun, 2022. "Health status assessment and remaining useful life prediction of aero-engine based on BiGRU and MMoE," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    2. Jian Ma & Hua Su & Wan-lin Zhao & Bin Liu, 2018. "Predicting the Remaining Useful Life of an Aircraft Engine Using a Stacked Sparse Autoencoder with Multilayer Self-Learning," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-13, July.
    3. Shi, Zunya & Chehade, Abdallah, 2021. "A dual-LSTM framework combining change point detection and remaining useful life prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Chen, Jinglong & Jing, Hongjie & Chang, Yuanhong & Liu, Qian, 2019. "Gated recurrent unit based recurrent neural network for remaining useful life prediction of nonlinear deterioration process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 372-382.
    5. Li, Xiang & Ding, Qian & Sun, Jian-Qiao, 2018. "Remaining useful life estimation in prognostics using deep convolution neural networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 1-11.
    6. Zhao, Zeqi & Bin Liang, & Wang, Xueqian & Lu, Weining, 2017. "Remaining useful life prediction of aircraft engine based on degradation pattern learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 74-83.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdullah Caliskan & Conor O’Brien & Krishna Panduru & Joseph Walsh & Daniel Riordan, 2023. "An Efficient Siamese Network and Transfer Learning-Based Predictive Maintenance System for More Sustainable Manufacturing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    2. Yang, Ningning & Wang, Zhijian & Cai, Wenan & Li, Yanfeng, 2023. "Data Regeneration Based on Multiple Degradation Processes for Remaining Useful Life Estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

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