IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i17p10483-d895360.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Agricultural Price Prediction Based on Combined Forecasting Model under Spatial-Temporal Influencing Factors

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Guo

    (College of Information Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China
    Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Engineering of Sichuan Province, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Dezhao Tang

    (College of Information Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China
    Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Engineering of Sichuan Province, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Wei Tang

    (College of Information Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China
    Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Engineering of Sichuan Province, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China)

  • Senqi Yang

    (College of Information Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China
    Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Engineering of Sichuan Province, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China)

  • Qichao Tang

    (College of Information Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China
    Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Engineering of Sichuan Province, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China)

  • Yang Feng

    (College of Information Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China
    Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Engineering of Sichuan Province, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China)

  • Fang Zhang

    (College of Information Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China
    Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Engineering of Sichuan Province, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625000, China)

Abstract

Grain product price fluctuations affect the input of production factors and impact national food security. Under the influence of complex factors, such as spatial-temporal influencing factors, price correlation, and market diversity, it is increasingly important to improve the accuracy of grain product price prediction for agricultural sustainable development. Therefore, successful prediction of the agricultural product plays a vital role in the government’s market regulation and the stability of national food security. In this paper, the price of corn in Sichuan Province is taken as an example. Firstly, the apriori algorithm was used to search for the spatial-temporal influencing factors of price changes. Secondly, the Attention Mechanism Algorithm, Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Back Propagation (BP) Neural Network models were combined into the AttLSTM-ARIMA-BP model to predict the accurate price. Compared with the other seven models, the AttLSTM-ARIMA-BP model achieves the best prediction effect and possesses the strongest robustness, which improves the accuracy of price forecasting in complex environments and makes the application to other fields possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Guo & Dezhao Tang & Wei Tang & Senqi Yang & Qichao Tang & Yang Feng & Fang Zhang, 2022. "Agricultural Price Prediction Based on Combined Forecasting Model under Spatial-Temporal Influencing Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:17:p:10483-:d:895360
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/17/10483/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/17/10483/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiang, Minqi & Liu, Jiapeng & Zhang, Lu & Liu, Chunyu, 2020. "An improved Stacking framework for stock index prediction by leveraging tree-based ensemble models and deep learning algorithms," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
    2. Helin Yin & Dong Jin & Yeong Hyeon Gu & Chang Jin Park & Sang Keun Han & Seong Joon Yoo, 2020. "STL-ATTLSTM: Vegetable Price Forecasting Using STL and Attention Mechanism-Based LSTM," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Jian Yang & David A. Bessler & David J. Leatham, 2001. "Asset storability and price discovery in commodity futures markets: A new look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 279-300, March.
    4. Fan, Dongyan & Sun, Hai & Yao, Jun & Zhang, Kai & Yan, Xia & Sun, Zhixue, 2021. "Well production forecasting based on ARIMA-LSTM model considering manual operations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    5. Sami Ben Jabeur & Salma Mefteh-Wali & Jean-Laurent Viviani, 2021. "Forecasting gold price with the XGBoost algorithm and SHAP interaction values," Post-Print hal-03331805, HAL.
    6. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Mingxi & Sima, Zeqian, 2020. "A novel cryptocurrency price trend forecasting model based on LightGBM," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    7. Zixian Liu & Guansan Du & Shuai Zhou & Haifeng Lu & Han Ji, 2022. "Analysis of Internet Financial Risks Based on Deep Learning and BP Neural Network," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1499, April.
    8. Dimitrios Kontogiannis & Dimitrios Bargiotas & Aspassia Daskalopulu, 2020. "Minutely Active Power Forecasting Models Using Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-17, April.
    9. Huiting Zheng & Jiabin Yuan & Long Chen, 2017. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using EMD-LSTM Neural Networks with a Xgboost Algorithm for Feature Importance Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Sen, Parag & Roy, Mousumi & Pal, Parimal, 2016. "Application of ARIMA for forecasting energy consumption and GHG emission: A case study of an Indian pig iron manufacturing organization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 1031-1038.
    11. Leslie J. Verteramo Chiu & William G. Tomek, 2018. "Insights from Anticipatory Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 351-364, June.
    12. Chi Hua & Erxi Zhu & Liang Kuang & Dechang Pi, 2019. "Short-term power prediction of photovoltaic power station based on long short-term memory-back-propagation," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 15(10), pages 15501477198, October.
    13. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Some Novel Bayesian Model Combination Schemes: An Application to Commodities Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-27, August.
    14. de Oliveira, Erick Meira & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2018. "Forecasting mid-long term electric energy consumption through bagging ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 776-788.
    15. Shun Chen & Lei Ge, 2019. "Exploring the attention mechanism in LSTM-based Hong Kong stock price movement prediction," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 1507-1515, September.
    16. Yingrui Zhou & Taiyong Li & Jiayi Shi & Zijie Qian, 2019. "A CEEMDAN and XGBOOST-Based Approach to Forecast Crude Oil Prices," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-15, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Senqi Yang & Xuliang Duan & Zeyan Xiao & Zhiyao Li & Yuhai Liu & Zhihao Jie & Dezhao Tang & Hui Du, 2022. "Sentiment Classification of Chinese Tourism Reviews Based on ERNIE-Gram+GCN," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Feihu Sun & Xianyong Meng & Yan Zhang & Yan Wang & Hongtao Jiang & Pingzeng Liu, 2023. "Agricultural Product Price Forecasting Methods: A Review," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Federico Divina & Miguel García Torres & Francisco A. Goméz Vela & José Luis Vázquez Noguera, 2019. "A Comparative Study of Time Series Forecasting Methods for Short Term Electric Energy Consumption Prediction in Smart Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Wang, Delu & Gan, Jun & Mao, Jinqi & Chen, Fan & Yu, Lan, 2023. "Forecasting power demand in China with a CNN-LSTM model including multimodal information," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    3. Oreshkin, Boris N. & Dudek, Grzegorz & Pełka, Paweł & Turkina, Ekaterina, 2021. "N-BEATS neural network for mid-term electricity load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    4. Goodell, John W. & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Saâdaoui, Foued & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2023. "Explainable artificial intelligence modeling to forecast bitcoin prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Wang, Qiang & Jiang, Feng, 2019. "Integrating linear and nonlinear forecasting techniques based on grey theory and artificial intelligence to forecast shale gas monthly production in Pennsylvania and Texas of the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 781-803.
    6. Jacob Hale & Suzanna Long, 2020. "A Time Series Sustainability Assessment of a Partial Energy Portfolio Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang, 2020. "Forecasting energy consumption and wind power generation using deep echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 598-613.
    8. Shuyu Li & Xuan Yang & Rongrong Li, 2019. "Forecasting Coal Consumption in India by 2030: Using Linear Modified Linear (MGM-ARIMA) and Linear Modified Nonlinear (BP-ARIMA) Combined Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque & Yaohao Peng & João Pedro Fontoura da Silva, 2022. "Making the whole greater than the sum of its parts: A literature review of ensemble methods for financial time series forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1701-1724, December.
    10. Vasileios Laitsos & Georgios Vontzos & Dimitrios Bargiotas & Aspassia Daskalopulu & Lefteri H. Tsoukalas, 2023. "Enhanced Automated Deep Learning Application for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-21, June.
    11. James Ming Chen & Mira Zovko & Nika Šimurina & Vatroslav Zovko, 2021. "Fear in a Handful of Dust: The Epidemiological, Environmental, and Economic Drivers of Death by PM 2.5 Pollution," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-59, August.
    12. Zhenhua Li & Xingxin Chen & Lin Wu & Abu-Siada Ahmed & Tao Wang & Yujie Zhang & Hongbin Li & Zhenxing Li & Yanchun Xu & Yue Tong, 2021. "Error Analysis of Air-Core Coil Current Transformer Based on Stacking Model Fusion," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, March.
    13. Liu, Xiaomei & Li, Sihan & Gao, Meina, 2024. "A discrete time-varying grey Fourier model with fractional order terms for electricity consumption forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    14. Feng Jiang & Xue Yang & Shuyu Li, 2018. "Comparison of Forecasting India’s Energy Demand Using an MGM, ARIMA Model, MGM-ARIMA Model, and BP Neural Network Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, June.
    15. Sunghyeon Choi & Jin Hur, 2020. "An Ensemble Learner-Based Bagging Model Using Past Output Data for Photovoltaic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, March.
    16. Xiao, Jin & Li, Yuxi & Xie, Ling & Liu, Dunhu & Huang, Jing, 2018. "A hybrid model based on selective ensemble for energy consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 534-546.
    17. Yamashiro, Hirochika & Nonaka, Hirofumi, 2021. "Estimation of processing time using machine learning and real factory data for optimization of parallel machine scheduling problem," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 8(C).
    18. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    19. Zhang, Yagang & Wang, Hui & Wang, Jingchao & Cheng, Xiaodan & Wang, Tong & Zhao, Zheng, 2024. "Ensemble optimization approach based on hybrid mode decomposition and intelligent technology for wind power prediction system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    20. Ayman A. Aly & Bassem F. Felemban & Ardashir Mohammadzadeh & Oscar Castillo & Andrzej Bartoszewicz, 2021. "Frequency Regulation System: A Deep Learning Identification, Type-3 Fuzzy Control and LMI Stability Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:17:p:10483-:d:895360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.