How Natural Gas Infrastructure Affects Carbon Emission Indicators in Guangdong Province?

As a public infrastructure, the West to East Natural Gas Pipeline Project (WENGPP), acting as a key supplier of energy, has adopted a potential approach to reduce CE by expanding Natural gas (NG) power in the developed areas in China. However, the literature pertaining to the effects of the efforts made by WENGPP to reduce CE remains scant. Therefore, this study applied the causal inference framework—Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to the Guangdong province, which was chosen as a case in point that provides empirical evidence related to the nexus between WENGPP and CE. Remarkably, our results disclosed that WENGPP had caused the total volume of CE in Guangdong province to decline notably. Both short and long-term emission inhibition effects approximated 10.68–14.96%. We revealed two CE reduction mechanisms: (i) through the low-carbon emission trade-off effect, wherein NG consumers were able to gain emission advantages under policy pressure; and (ii) through price comparison effect, where high combustion efficiency of NG consumers combined with low energy consumption costs could provide the incentive of promoting the optimization of regional emission structure. The article suggests a substitutable channel upgrading public energy infrastructure to improve the low-carbon alternative process, to policy makers.