IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i3p2203-d1046138.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Influencing Factors of the Carbon Trading Price: A Case of China against a “Double Carbon” Background

Author

Listed:
  • Shaolong Zeng

    (School of Economics, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China)

  • Qinyi Fu

    (School of Economics, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China)

  • Danni Yang

    (School of Economics, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China)

  • Yihua Tian

    (Hangzhou Economist Association, Hangzhou 311121, China)

  • Yang Yu

    (Business School, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China)

Abstract

The Carbon trading price (CTP) can best reflect the fluctuations of the carbon trading market. This paper comprehensively analyzes the CTP mechanism of China’s carbon trading market, discusses the main factors affecting China’s CTP, which include macroeconomic factors, energy price factors, policy factors, and environmental factors, and provides three hypotheses. In order to highlight and test the three hypotheses about the CTP, five representative carbon trading pilot markets were included: Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hubei, and Guangdong, and the daily average price data (over years) were adapted from January 2017 to December 2021, using a dynamic heterogeneous panel PMG model. The current paper selects the China air quality index (AQI), Bohai-Rim steam-coal price index (BSPI), Liquefied natural gas index (LNGI), and the Shanghai stock exchange industrial index (SSEII) as the explanatory variables. The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the CTP, AQI, energy price, and macroeconomics. Strengthening environmental governance, optimizing the energy structure, and expanding the carbon trading market coverage should be adopted to improve the China carbon emission trade exchange (CCETE) and stabilize the CTP.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaolong Zeng & Qinyi Fu & Danni Yang & Yihua Tian & Yang Yu, 2023. "The Influencing Factors of the Carbon Trading Price: A Case of China against a “Double Carbon” Background," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:3:p:2203-:d:1046138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/3/2203/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/3/2203/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Komarova, 2022. "State Regulation of Energy Transition and Economic Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Wu, Qingyang & Wang, Yanying, 2022. "How does carbon emission price stimulate enterprises' total factor productivity? Insights from China's emission trading scheme pilots," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4222 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ali, Mumtaz & Tursoy, Turgut & Samour, Ahmed & Moyo, Delani & Konneh, Abrahim, 2022. "Testing the impact of the gold price, oil price, and renewable energy on carbon emissions in South Africa: Novel evidence from bootstrap ARDL and NARDL approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Wenjun Chu & Shanglei Chai & Xi Chen & Mo Du, 2020. "Does the Impact of Carbon Price Determinants Change with the Different Quantiles of Carbon Prices? Evidence from China ETS Pilots," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-19, July.
    6. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
    7. Wei Sun & Junjian Zhang, 2020. "Carbon Price Prediction Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by Improved Bat Algorithm Considering Energy Price Factors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-22, July.
    8. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ye, Shunxin & Han, Dong & Wang, Ping & He, Kaijian & Wei, Yi-Ming & Xie, Rui, 2019. "A multiscale analysis for carbon price drivers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 202-216.
    9. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro & Sikora, Iryna, 2022. "The determinants of CO2 prices in the EU emission trading system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    10. Kanamura, Takashi, 2016. "Role of carbon swap trading and energy prices in price correlations and volatilities between carbon markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 204-212.
    11. Luan Santos & Karl Steininger & Marcelle Candido Cordeiro & Johanna Vogel, 2022. "Current Status and Future Perspectives of Carbon Pricing Research in Austria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-28, August.
    12. Ziwei Yan & Chunying Cui, 2022. "How Natural Gas Infrastructure Affects Carbon Emission Indicators in Guangdong Province?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-26, July.
    13. Conrad, Christian & Rittler, Daniel & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2012. "Modeling and explaining the dynamics of European Union Allowance prices at high-frequency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 316-326.
    14. Jiawen Zhang & Zhiyi Liang & Toru Matsumoto & Tiejia Zhang, 2022. "Environmental and Economic Implication of Implementation Scale of Sewage Sludge Recycling Systems Considering Carbon Trading Price," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-16, July.
    15. Chang-Jing Ji & Xiao-Yi Li & Yu-Jie Hu & Xiang-Yu Wang & Bao-Jun Tang, 2019. "Research on carbon price in emissions trading scheme: a bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1381-1396, December.
    16. Xiaohua Song & Wen Zhang & Zeqi Ge & Siqi Huang & Yamin Huang & Sijia Xiong, 2022. "A Study of the Influencing Factors on the Carbon Emission Trading Price in China Based on the Improved Gray Relational Analysis Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-27, June.
    17. Rui Zhu & Liyu Long & Yinghua Gong, 2022. "Emission Trading System, Carbon Market Efficiency, and Corporate Innovations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-22, August.
    18. Dan SHI & Cheng ZHANG & Bo ZHOU & Lu YANG, 2018. "The True Impacts of and Influencing Factors Relating to Carbon Emissions Rights Trading: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-22, September.
    19. Xianzi Yang & Chen Zhang & Yu Yang & Yaqi Wu & Po Yun & Zulfiqar Ali Wagan, 2020. "China’s Carbon Pricing Based on Heterogeneous Tail Distribution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-16, April.
    20. Jilin Zhang & Yukun Xu, 2020. "Research on the Price Fluctuation and Risk Formation Mechanism of Carbon Emission Rights in China Based on a GARCH Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-11, May.
    21. Bredin, Don & Muckley, Cal, 2011. "An emerging equilibrium in the EU emissions trading scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 353-362, March.
    22. Yidan Chen & Yuwei Sun & Can Wang, 2018. "Influencing Factors of Companies’ Behavior for Mitigation: A Discussion within the Context of Emission Trading Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    23. Chang-Jing Ji & Yu-Jie Hu & Bao-Jun Tang, 2018. "Research on carbon market price mechanism and influencing factors: a literature review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 761-782, June.
    24. Qiong Wu & Kanittha Tambunlertchai & Pongsa Pornchaiwiseskul, 2021. "Examining the Impact and Influencing Channels of Carbon Emission Trading Pilot Markets in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shaolong Zeng & Qinyi Fu & Fazli Haleem & Yang Shen & Weibin Peng & Man Ji & Yilong Gong & Yilong Xu, 2024. "China’s carbon trading pilot policy, economic stability, and high-quality economic development," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Jiang, Yihuo & Ni, Hongliang & Guo, Xiaomei & Ni, Yihan, 2023. "Integrating ESG practices and natural resources management for sustainable economic development in SMEs under the double-carbon target of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaohua Song & Wen Zhang & Zeqi Ge & Siqi Huang & Yamin Huang & Sijia Xiong, 2022. "A Study of the Influencing Factors on the Carbon Emission Trading Price in China Based on the Improved Gray Relational Analysis Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Vlad-Cosmin Bulai & Alexandra Horobet & Oana Cristina Popovici & Lucian Belascu & Sofia Adriana Dumitrescu, 2021. "A VaR-Based Methodology for Assessing Carbon Price Risk across European Union Economic Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 222-232.
    4. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Muckley, Cal, 2014. "A microstructure analysis of the carbon finance market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 222-234.
    5. Remes, Piia, 2013. "Putting a Price on Carbon – Econometric Essays on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and its Impacts," Research Reports 62, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Yue Xu & Dayu Zhai, 2022. "Impact of Changes in Membership on Prices of a Unified Carbon Market: Case Study of the European Union Emissions Trading System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, October.
    7. Demiralay, Sercan & Gencer, Hatice Gaye & Bayraci, Selcuk, 2022. "Carbon credit futures as an emerging asset: Hedging, diversification and downside risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Ying Fan & Yin-Peng Liu & Jian-Feng Guo, 2016. "How to explain carbon price using market micro-behaviour?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(51), pages 4992-5007, November.
    9. Gavard, Claire & Kirat, Djamel, 2018. "Flexibility in the market for international carbon credits and price dynamics difference with European allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 504-518.
    10. Aatola, Piia, 2013. "Putting a Price on Carbon – Econometric Essays on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and its Impacts," Research Reports P62, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Yan, Kai & Zhang, Wei & Shen, Dehua, 2020. "Stylized facts of the carbon emission market in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 555(C).
    12. Xie, Qiwei & Hao, Jingjing & Li, Jingyu & Zheng, Xiaolong, 2022. "Carbon price prediction considering climate change: A text-based framework," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 382-401.
    13. Wang, Xiong & Li, Jingyao & Ren, Xiaohang & Bu, Ruijun & Jawadi, Fredj, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and dynamic correlations in energy markets: Assessment and solutions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    14. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
    15. Frédéric Branger, Philippe Quirion, Julien Chevallier, 2017. "Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness of Cement and Steel Industries Under the EU ETS: Much Ado About Nothing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    16. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Shi, Yukun & Mishra, Tapas & Yan, Cheng, 2021. "The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Guo, Li-Yang & Feng, Chao & Yang, Jun, 2022. "Can energy predict the regional prices of carbon emission allowances in China?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    18. Dorota Ciesielska-Maciągowska & Dawid Klimczak & Małgorzata Skrzek-Lubasińska, 2021. "Central and Eastern European CO 2 Market—Challenges of Emissions Trading for Energy Companies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, February.
    19. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Modeling EU allowances and oil market interdependence. Implications for portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 471-480.
    20. Bangzhu Zhu & Ping Wang & Julien Chevallier & Yiming Wei, 2015. "Carbon Price Analysis Using Empirical Mode Decomposition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 195-206, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:3:p:2203-:d:1046138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.